Integrated modelling for water quality management in a eutrophic reservoir in south-eastern Portugal

The Enxoé Reservoir was built in 1998. Since 2000, it has exhibited frequent high chlorophyll-a concentrations, reaching a geometric mean three times higher than the national limit for eutrophication, presenting the reservoir with the highest eutrophic state in Portugal. Toxic algal blooms have also often been observed, which pose serious challenges to water managers, as the reservoir is used for potable water production (25,000 inhabitants). The objective of this study was to implement a reservoir model (CE-QUAL-W2), with inputs from a watershed model (SWAT), in order to represent the actual reservoir state and to test management measures to reduce its trophic level and algal bloom concentration peaks. The integrated model was used to depict the origin of its trophic status. Simulations were also compared to measured data at the reservoir surface (water level, nitrate, orthophosphate, suspended solids, and oxygen) and in water profiles (temperature, oxygen). The model was able to represent stratification and thermocline depths, as well as the actual chlorophyll-a and dissolved oxygen concentrations. The model results showed that internal phosphorus load from deposited sediments was an important factor in fuelling the algal blooms. This process occurs predominantly in summer, when stratification takes place and aeration is reduced, promoting anoxic conditions in the bottom waters. Since the reservoir is relatively shallow (average 5 m), released phosphorus is then easily able to reach the photic zone in most parts of the reservoir, where it is consumed. Different management scenarios were tested, suggesting that a mesotrophic level could barely be reached and maintained simply by reducing the nutrient loads (both external and internal). It is suggested that only an increase in the reservoir dam height could produce a mesotrophic level, averting anoxia by blocking the release of phosphorus from sediments to the photic zone. Future work should focus on a cost–benefit analysis to test the feasibility of each of the proposed scenarios, taking advantage of the integration strategy to assess where in the watershed load reductions would be most effective.     

Cyanotoxin contamination of semiarid drinking water supply reservoirs

Changing global climatic conditions and the continuous eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems have led to increased frequency, duration and toxicity of cyanobacterial blooms worldwide. This makes the provision of time series information on cyanotoxins extremely crucial for effective monitoring and management of water resources. The objective of the present study was to investigate seasonal and annual changes in microcystins (MCs), cylindrospermopsins (CYNs), saxitoxins (STXs), neo-saxitoxin (neo-STX) and anatoxin-a (ATX-a) concentrations in 11 public water supply reservoirs in the semiarid region of Brazil, from 2004 to 2011. Per time, at least one cyanotoxin was present in all the investigated reservoirs. High levels of MCs, CYNs, STXs and Neo-STX were detected simultaneously in Carpina, Duas Unas, Ipojuca, and Jucazinho reservoirs. All the investigated reservoirs had significant concentrations of MCs. The highest levels of MCs were found in Carpina (303,300.0 ng g^?1) and Duas Unas (122,053.9 ng g^?1) reservoirs, while the lowest concentration of the hepatotoxins was recorded in Ipojuca (10.3 ng g^?1) reservoir. On the other hand, CYN was detected in four reservoirs, STXs and Neo-STX in ten reservoirs and ATX-a in two reservoirs. The first record of CYN in Carpina reservoir was obtained in 2006. In addition, Carpina reservoir had the highest concentration of STXs and Neo-STX in the dry and rainy seasons, respectively. The high concentration of cyanotoxins observed in most samples obtained from semiarid reservoirs in Brazil demonstrates the need for regular monitoring and updated management programs.     

Effects on runoff caused by changes in land cover in a Brazilian southeast basin: evaluation by HEC-HMS and HEC-GEOHMS

The Southeast Region of Brazil has undergone major changes in land cover, especially after the eighteenth century. It is currently the most populous region of the country, highly urbanized, with a high degree of industrial and agricultural development. Extensive areas of native vegetation have been replaced by pastures, crops and urban areas, which have increased runoff, causing environmental, economic and social problems related to flooding. The objective of this study was to analyze effects of land cover changes in a basin with rural and urban characteristics on the flow of its main river. Hydrological data, orbital images, soils and topographical maps were used for this purpose. Based on the land cover maps for the years of 1989, 2001 and 2015, and on the hydrological modeling performed using the Hec-HMS 4.1 software, scenarios were simulated and showed that the land cover changes in this basin significantly affect the flow behavior of the main river. The simulated runoff was calibrated using the data observed in the field during 2001, and validation was performed using data from 1989. After the calibration and validation processes, a scenario was simulated where the rainiest month of the whole series measured by the rainfall station (during December 1989) acted on the land cover of 2015. There was an increase in pasture areas and impermeable spaces in the basin, which caused a decrease in infiltration and an increase in surface runoff, and also an increase in the flow peaks and a reduction in the time of concentration. The hydrological modeling was satisfactory, since the uncertainties related to the simulation were low.     

Surrogate-based parameter inference in debris flow model

This work tackles the problem of calibrating the unknown parameters of a debris flow model with the drawback that the information regarding the experimental data treatment and processing is not available. In particular, we focus on the evolution over time of the flow thickness of the debris with dam-break initial conditions. The proposed methodology consists of establishing an approximation of the numerical model using a polynomial chaos expansion that is used in place of the original model, saving computational burden. The values of the parameters are then inferred through a Bayesian approach with a particular focus on inference discrepancies that some of the important features predicted by the model exhibit. We build the model approximation using a preconditioned non-intrusive method and show that a suitable prior parameter distribution is critical to the construction of an accurate surrogate model. The results of the Bayesian inference suggest that utilizing directly the available experimental data could lead to incorrect conclusions, including the over-determination of parameters. To avoid such drawbacks, we propose to base the inference on few significant features extracted from the original data. Our experiments confirm the validity of this approach, and show that it does not lead to significant loss of information. It is further computationally more efficient than the direct approach, and can avoid the construction of an elaborate error model.     

Correction to: A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Computational Geosciences - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-021-10079-6     

Assessment of future trends on groundwater quality in a nitrate vulnerable zone (Esposende–Vila do Conde sector,NW Portugal): towards a combined conceptual and mass transport modelling

Hydrogeology Journal - Nitrate contamination of groundwater is an important public health issue worldwide. For environmental and public health reasons, water should not contain more than...     

In Situ Oxygen Isotope Determination in Serpentine Minerals by SIMS: Addressing Matrix Effects and Providing New Insights on Serpentinisation at Hole BA1B (Samail ophiolite,Oman)

The ability to constrain the petrogenesis of multiple serpentine generations recorded at the microscale is crucial for estimating the extent and conditions of modern versus fossil serpentinisation in ophiolites. To address matrix bias effects during oxygen isotope analysis by SIMS, we present the first investigation analysing antigorite in the compositional range Mg# = 77.5–99.5 mole %, using a CAMECA IMS‐1280 secondary ion mass spectrometer. Spot‐to‐spot homogeneity is ≤ 0.5‰ (2s) for the new antigorite reference materials. The relative bias between antigorite reference materials with different Mg/Fe ratios is described by a second‐order polynomial, and a maximum difference in bias of ~ 1.8‰ was measured for Mg# ~ 78 to 100. We observed a bias up to ~ 1.0‰ between lizardite and antigorite attributed to their different crystal structures. Orientation effects up to ~ 1‰ were observed in chrysotile. The new analytical protocol allowed the identification of oxygen isotope zoning up to ~ 7‰ in serpentine minerals from two serpentinites recovered from an area of active serpentinisation in the Samail ophiolite. Thus, in situ analysis is capable of resolving isotopic heterogeneity that may directly reflect changes in the physical and chemical conditions of multiple serpentinisation events in the Samail ophiolite.     

Sedimentology of a Late Quaternary lacustrine record from the south-eastern Carpathian Basin

The Upper Pleistocene geoarchives in the south-eastern Carpathian Basin are represented predominantly by loess–palaeosol records. In 2015, a 10 m sediment core composed of clay-rich lacustrine sediments was recovered by vibracoring a dry lake basin located between the Vršac Mountains (Serbia) and the Banat Sands in the south-eastern Carpathian Basin; a location relevant for placing regional archaeological results in a palaeoenvironmental context. Here, we present results from geoelectrical prospection and a lithostratigraphic interpretation of this sequence supported by a detailed granulometric study supplemented by ostracod analysis. An age model based on luminescence dating is discussed against sedimentological proxy data and its implication for palaeoenvironmental change. The cores show a stratigraphy of lighter ochre-coloured and darker greyish sediment, related to the deposition of clay and silt trapped in an aquatic environment. Geophysical measurements show ~20 m thick lacustrine sediments. The grain-size distributions including the variability in fine clay are indicative of a lacustrine environment. Fine particles were brought into the depositional environments by aquatic input and settled from suspension; also, direct dust input is constrained by grain-size results. Riverine input and aeolian dust input interplayed at the locality.