Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo Volcano,DRC

Mt. Nyiragongo is one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world for the risk associated with the propagation of lava flows. In 2002 several vents opened along a huge system of fractures, pouring out lava which reached and destroyed a considerable part of Goma, a town of about 500,000 inhabitants on the shore of Lake Kivu. In a companion paper (Favalli et al. in Bull Volcanol, this issue, 2008) we employed numerical simulations of probable lava flow paths to evaluate the lava flow hazard on the flanks of the volcano, including the neighbouring towns of Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda). In this paper we use numerical simulations to investigate the possibility of significantly reducing the lava flow hazard in the city through the construction of protective barriers. These barriers are added to the DEM of the area as additional morphological elements, and their effect is evaluated by repeating numerical simulations with and without the presence of barriers. A parametric study on barrier location, size, shape and orientation led to the identification of barriers which maximize protection while minimizing their impact. This study shows that the highest hazard area corresponding to eastern Goma, which was largely destroyed by lava flows in 2002, cannot be effectively protected from future lava flows towards Lake Kivu and should be abandoned. On the contrary, the rest of the town can be sheltered from lava flows by means of two barriers that deviate or contain the lava within the East Goma sector. A proposal for the future development of the town is formulated, whereby “new” Goma is completely safe from the arrival of lava flows originating from vents outside its boundaries. The proposal minimizes the risk of further destruction in town due to future lava flows.     

Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.     

Survey on germination and species composition of dinoflagellates from ballast tanks and recent sediments in ports on the South Coast of Finland, North-Eastern Baltic Sea

Cyst beds in ships and ports in Finland have previously been unstudied. Therefore, sediments from ships' ballast water tanks and four Finnish ports were sampled for dinoflagellate cysts and other phytoplankton. Untreated sediments were incubated at 10 degrees C and 20 degrees C in the local 6 psu salinity for 1, 4 and 7 days, and vegetative cells were examined with light and scanning electron microscope. Sediments were inhabited by various dinoflagellates, diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanophytes and small flagellates. Germinated dinoflagellates were found in 90% of ballast tanks and in all ports. Gymnodiniales spp. and Heterocapsa rotundata formed a major proportion of the proliferating dinoflagellate cells. One species, Peridinium quinquecorne, not previously reported from the Baltic Sea, was identified with SEM. The study emphasises that ships are potential transport vehicles for dinoflagellate cysts even in the low salinity Finnish waters, and small-sized dinoflagellates should be focused upon in ballast water studies.     

Ideal width of transects for monitoring source-related categories of plastics on beaches

Although there is a consensus on the necessity of monitoring solid wastes pollution on beaches, the methods applied vary widely. Therefore, creating, testing and recommending a method that not only allows comparisons of places and periods, but also the detection of source signals, will be important to reach the objectives of the source-prevention principle. This will also allow the optimisation of time, resources, and processing of samples and data. A classification of the items found into specific categories was made according to their most probable source/use (fisheries, food packaging, hazardous, sewage/personal hygiene, beach user, general home). This study tested different widths of sampling transects to be used in the detection of plastics contamination on beaches, until all the categories were significantly represented. Each transect had its total width (50m) sub-divided into eight intervals of 0-2.5m; 2.5-5m; 5-10m; 10-15m; 15-20m; 20-30m; 30-40m; and 40-50m. The accumulated number of categories in the 50m (up to 2.5m; up to 5m and so on) was used to determine the minimal width necessary to qualitatively characterize the area regarding plastics contamination. The diversity of the categories was directly related to the area of the sampling transect. These results indicate that a significant increase in the number of categories in the first intervals tend to stabilize from 15-20m onwards.     

Effects of rainfall on soil–structure system frequency: Examples based on poroelasticity and a comparison with full-scale measurements

In this paper, a simple two-dimensional soil–structure interaction model, based on Biot's theory of wave propagation in fluid saturated porous media, is used to explain the observed increase of the apparent frequencies of Millikan library in Pasadena, California, during heavy rainfall and recovery within days after the rain. These variations have been measured for small amplitude response (to microtremors and wind excitation), for which Biot's linear theory is valid. The postulated hypothesis is that the observed increases in frequency are due to the water saturation of the soil. The theoretical model used to explore this hypothesis consists of a shear wall supported by a circular foundation embedded in a poroelastic half-space. This rigid foundation model may be appropriate only for the NS response of Millikan library. This paper presents results for the foundation stiffness, and for the system response for model parameters similar to those for Millikan library (located on alluvium with shear wave velocity of about 300 m/s). The foundation impedance matrix, foundation input motion and system response are compared for dry and fully saturated half-space, with permeable and impermeable foundation. The results show that for embedded foundations, the effects of saturation on the horizontal foundation stiffness are as significant as for the vertical stiffness, contrary to what has been known for surface foundations investigated by other authors. Further, the results suggest a 1–2% increase in system frequency of the first two modes of vibration, depending on the drainage condition along the foundation–soil interface. Such increases agree qualitatively with the observations.     

Constraining Holocene sea levels using U‐Th ages of phreatic overgrowths on speleothems from coastal caves in Mallorca (Western Mediterranean)

Phreatic overgrowths on speleothems (POS) are carbonate formations deposited at the water table of caves in unique karstic coastal settings having morphologies that can be directly related to sea level at the time of formation. The U‐Th ages of calcite and aragonite overgrowths collected from the modern water table in coastal caves on Mallorca (Cova de Cala Varques A and Cova des Pas de Vallgornera) were determined using high‐precision MC‐ICPMS techniques. U‐Th ages indicate that phreatic carbonate deposition occurred between ca 2·8 and at least 0·6 ka BP and are in accord with an archeologically estimated age of 3·7–3·0 ka BP for a drowned prehistoric construction at a depth of 1 m below current sea level in a cave from the same area. Speleothem δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and chemical composition of cave pools provide supportive evidence that POS reflect mixing between seawater and brackish water table. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气象卫星云图的多分辨小波分解及人工神经网络降水估计研究

采用多分辨小波分析对卫星图象进行预处理 ,在保留其特征信息的同时 ,减小了数据量 ,改善了神经网络训练过程的收敛性能 ,提高了处理速度。采用这一方法根据 GOES- 8的红外亮温图象和气象雷达资料对巴西圣保罗州中部的降水量估计进行了试验 ,取得了良好的效果。     

On the variability of seasonal temperature in southern South America

The aim of this paper is to investigate different aspects of the seasonal-to-interannual temperature variability in Eastern Patagonia, the southernmost area of South America, east of the Andes Cordillera. Homogenous regions of seasonal variability and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with warm and cold conditions in each of them are described in this study. Relationships between temperature in Eastern Patagonia and that registered in other areas of southern South America are also addressed. Results show that the northern and southern areas of Eastern Patagonia have different temperature variability in summer and autumn whereas the temperature variability tends to be more homogeneous within the region during winter and spring. Warm (cold) conditions in the northern areas are associated with reinforced (weakened) westerlies in summer, winter and spring whereas northerly (southerly) advections of warm (cold) air toward the region produce such conditions in autumn. Temperature in the southern portion of Eastern Patagonia is affected by anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies that enhance (reduce) the incoming solar radiation and induce reinforced (weakened) westerlies promoting warm (cold) conditions in the region. Furthermore, cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies at subpolar latitudes hinder (favor) outbreaks of cold air increasing (decreasing) the temperature over areas of Eastern Patagonia. The circulation anomalies associated with warm (cold) conditions in Eastern Patagonia also promote cold (warm) conditions over areas of northern Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil. Consequently, a dipole of temperature is detected in southern South America with centers of opposite sign over these regions.     

The droughts of 1997 and 2005 in Amazonia: floodplain hydrology and its potential ecological and human impacts

It is well known that most of the severe droughts in Amazonia, such as that of 1997, are El Niño-related. However, in 2005, the Amazon was affected by a severe drought that was not El Niño-related, as most of the rainfall anomalies that have happened in southwestern Amazonia are driven by sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic. Earlier studies have analyzed both droughts in terms of their meteorological causes and impacts in terra firme (non-flooded) forests. This study compares the hydrological effects of both droughts on the Amazonian floodplain and discusses their potential ecological and human impacts based on an extensive literature review. The results revealed that the effects of the 2005 drought were exacerbated because rainfall was lower and evaporation rates were higher at the peak of the dry season compared to the 1997 drought. This induced a more acute depletion of water levels in floodplain lakes and was most likely associated with higher fish mortality rates. Based on the fact that the stem growth of many floodplain species is related to the length of the non-flooded period, it is hypothesized that the 1997 drought had more positive effects on floodplain forest growth than the 2005 drought. The fishing community of Silves in central Amazonia considered both droughts to have been equally severe. However, the 2005 drought was widely broadcasted by the press; therefore, the governmental mitigation efforts were more comprehensive. It is suggested that the availability of new communication technology and greater public awareness regarding environmental issues, combined with the new legal framework for assessing the severity of calamities in Brazil, are among the primary factors that explain the difference in societal response between the two droughts.