A Framework for Quantitative Assessment of Impacts Related to Energy and Mineral Resource Development

Natural resource planning at all scales demands methods for assessing the impacts of resource development and use, and in particular it requires standardized methods that yield robust and unbiased results. Building from existing probabilistic methods for assessing the volumes of energy and mineral resources, we provide an algorithm for consistent, reproducible, quantitative assessment of resource development impacts. The approach combines probabilistic input data with Monte Carlo statistical methods to determine probabilistic outputs that convey the uncertainties inherent in the data. For example, one can utilize our algorithm to combine data from a natural gas resource assessment with maps of sage grouse leks and piñon-juniper woodlands in the same area to estimate possible future habitat impacts due to possible future gas development. As another example: one could combine geochemical data and maps of lynx habitat with data from a mineral deposit assessment in the same area to determine possible future mining impacts on water resources and lynx habitat. The approach can be applied to a broad range of positive and negative resource development impacts, such as water quantity or quality, economic benefits, or air quality, limited only by the availability of necessary input data and quantified relationships among geologic resources, development alternatives, and impacts. The framework enables quantitative evaluation of the trade-offs inherent in resource management decision-making, including cumulative impacts, to address societal concerns and policy aspects of resource development.     

The mixed-bed glacial landform imprint of the North Sea Lobe in the western North Sea

During the last glacial cycle an intriguing feature of the British-Irish Ice Sheet was the North Sea Lobe (NSL); fed from the Firth of Forth and which flowed south and parallel to the English east coast. The controls on the formation and behaviour of the NSL have long been debated, but in the southern North Sea recent work suggests the NSL formed a dynamic, oscillating terrestrial margin operating over a deforming bed. Further north, however, little is known of the behaviour of the NSL or under what conditions it operated. This paper analyses new acoustic, sedimentary and geomorphic data in order to evaluate the glacial landsystem imprint and deglacial history of the NSL offshore from NE England. Subglacial tills (AF2/3) form a discontinuous mosaic interspersed with bedrock outcrops across the seafloor, with the partial excavation and advection of subglacial sediment during both advance and retreat producing mega-scale glacial lineations and grounding zone wedges. The resultant ‘mixed-bed’ glacial landsystem is the product of a dynamic switch from a terrestrial piedmont-lobe margin with a net surplus of sediment to a partially erosive, quasi-stable, marine-terminating, ice stream lobe as the NSL withdrew northwards. Glaciomarine sediments (AF4) drape the underlying subglacial mixed-bed imprint and point to a switch to tidewater conditions between 19.9 and 16.5 ka cal BP as the North Sea became inundated. The dominant controls on NSL recession during this period were changing ice flux through the Firth of Forth ice stream onset zone and water depths at the grounding line; the development of the mixed-bed landsystem being a response to grounding line instability. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.