Unleakable carbon†

Unleakable carbon, or the uncombusted methane and carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuel systems, constitutes a potentially large and heretofore unrecognized factor in determining use of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves. Advances in extraction technology have encouraged a shift to natural gas, but the advantage of fuel switching depends strongly on mitigating current levels of unleakable carbon, which can be substantial enough to offset any climate benefit relative to oil or coal. To illustrate the potential warming effect of methane emissions associated with utilizable portions of our remaining natural gas reserves, we use recent data published in peer-reviewed journals to roughly estimate the impact of these emissions. We demonstrate that unless unleakable carbon is curtailed, up to 59–81% of our global natural gas reserves must remain underground if we hope to limit warming to 2°C from 2010 to 2050. Successful climate change mitigation depends on improved quantification of current levels of unleakable carbon and a determination of acceptable levels of these emissions within the context of international climate change agreements.

Policy relevance

It is imperative that companies, investors, and world leaders considering capital expenditures and policies towards continued investment in natural gas fuels do so with a complete understanding of how dependent the ultimate climate benefits are upon increased regulation of unleakable carbon, the uncombusted carbon-based gases associated with fossil fuel systems, otherwise referred to as ‘fugitive’, ‘leaked’, ‘vented’, ‘flared’, or ‘unintended’ emissions. Continued focus on combustion emissions alone, or unburnable carbon, undermines the importance of assessing the full climate impacts of fossil fuels, leading many stakeholders to support near-term mitigation strategies that rely on fuel switching from coal and oil to cleaner burning natural gas. The current lack of transparent accounting of unleakable carbon represents a significant gap in the understanding of what portions of the Earth’s remaining global fossil fuel reserves can be utilized while still limiting global warming to 2°C. Successful climate change mitigation requires that stakeholders confront the issue of both unburnable and unleakable carbon when considering continued investment in and potential expansion of natural gas systems as part of a climate change solution.     

A Comparison of Hyporheic Transport at a Cross‐Vane Structure and Natural Riffle

While restoring hyporheic flowpaths has been cited as a benefit to stream restoration structures, little documentation exists confirming that constructed restoration structures induce comparable hyporheic exchange to natural stream features. This study compares a stream restoration structure (cross‐vane) to a natural feature (riffle) concurrently in the same stream reach using time‐lapsed electrical resistivity (ER) tomography. Using this hydrogeophysical approach, we were able to quantify hyporheic extent and transport beneath the cross‐vane structure and the riffle. We interpret from the geophysical data that the cross‐vane and the natural riffle induced spatially and temporally unique hyporheic extent and transport, and the cross‐vane created both spatially larger and temporally longer hyporheic flowpaths than the natural riffle. Tracer from the 4.67‐h injection was detected along flowpaths for 4.6 h at the cross‐vane and 4.2 h at the riffle. The spatial extent of the hyporheic zone at the cross‐vane was 12% larger than that at the riffle. We compare ER results of this study to vertical fluxes calculated from temperature profiles and conclude significant differences in the interpretation of hyporheic transport from these different field techniques. Results of this study demonstrate a high degree of heterogeneity in transport metrics at both the cross‐vane and the riffle and differences between the hyporheic flowpath networks at the two different features. Our results suggest that restoration structures may be capable of creating sufficient exchange flux and timescales of transport to achieve the same ecological functions as natural features, but engineering of the physical and biogeochemical environment may be necessary to realize these benefits.     

Evidence for exposure of fish to oil spilled into the Columbia river

On March 19, 1984, more than 170000 gallons of oil were spilled into the Columbia River. We had recently developed analytical methods for estimating the exposure of fish to aromatic compounds by measuring the concentrations of metabolites of these contaminants in fish bile. The oil spill provided an opportunity to field test our methods in assessing the exposure of fish to petroleum aromatic compounds from the spilled oil. Our findings indicated that, within 5 days after the spill, mean concentrations of metabolites of aromatic compounds in the bile of white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) captured 57 miles downstream from the spill were significantly higher than those of sturgeon caught upriver.     

Spatio-temporal distribution of dissolved inorganic carbon and net community production in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

As part of the 2002 Western Arctic Shelf–Basin Interactions (SBI) project, spatio-temporal variability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) was employed to determine rates of net community production (NCP) for the Chukchi and western Beaufort Sea shelf and slope, and Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. Seasonal and spatial distributions of DIC were characterized for all water masses (e.g., mixed layer, halocline waters, Atlantic layer, and deep Arctic Ocean) of the Chukchi Sea region during field investigations in spring (5 May–15 June 2002) and summer (15 July–25 August 2002). Between these periods, high rates of phytoplankton production resulted in large drawdown of inorganic nutrients and DIC in the Polar Mixed Layer (PML) and in the shallow depths of the Upper Halocline Layer (UHL). The highest rates of NCP (1000–2850 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) occurred on the shelf in the Barrow Canyon region of the Chukchi Sea and east of Barrow in the western Beaufort Sea. A total NCP rate of 8.9–17.8×10¹² g for the growing season was estimated for the eastern Chukchi Sea shelf and slope region. Very low inorganic nutrient concentrations and low rates of NCP (<15–25 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹) estimated for the mixed layer of the adjacent Arctic Ocean basin indicate that this area is perennially oligotrophic.     

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

Developing a long-term outlook for the Great Barrier Reef,Australia: A framework for adaptive management reporting underpinning an ecosystem-based management approach

The Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009 was the first produced in response to a newly legislated requirement for five-yearly reports on the status of and outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. It adopted an ecosystem approach, assessing all habitats and species, ecosystem processes and major uses. By then considering the factors affecting the ecosystem, coupled with an assessment of management effectiveness, it provided a risk-based forward-looking projection for the ecosystem. Rarely has such a comprehensive, ecosystem-based report been produced to guide government action. With no pre-determined path to follow for interpreting the legislative requirements, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) developed a repeatable structure and method for Great Barrier Reef Outlook Reports that impartially and consistently considers the evidence and clearly presents the findings. The GBRMPA worked closely with relevant Australian and Queensland Government agencies as well as researchers, industry representatives and the community while developing the report. That such a report must be produced every five years allows an overview of the effectiveness of management responses to be regularly assessed. It also provides a transparent means of highlighting and tracking emerging risks facing the Great Barrier Reef.     

Preliminary study of the redistribution and transformation of HgS from cinnabar mine tailings deposited in Honda Bay, Palawan, Philippines

Mining operations in Palawan, Philippines, resulted in cinnabar (HgS) mine tailings being used to build a 600 m long peninsula in Honda Bay. Samples collected from the peninsula as well as sediments from the surrounding waters had elevated mercury levels as high as 570 ppm. Natural processes are transporting mercury as much as 10 km from the peninsula, mainly in a coastwise direction, and preferentially associated with fine-grained, organic-rich sediments. Depth of penetration into sediments exceeds 10 cm near the source. As the HgS is transported away from the peninsula, it is rapidly altered to more bioavailable forms; 50% conversion occurs within a distance of only 10–40 m.     

Geogas transport in fractured hard rock – Correlations with mining seismicity at 3.54 km depth, TauTona gold mine, South Africa

An on-site gas monitoring study has been conducted in the framework of an earthquake laboratory (The International NELSAM–DAFGAS projects) at the TauTona gold mine, South Africa. Five boreholes up to 60 m long were drilled at 3.54 km depth into the highly fractured Pretorius Fault Zone and instruments for chemical and seismic monitoring installed therein. Over the span of 4 years sensitive gas monitoring devices were continuously improved to enable the direct observation of geogas concentration variations in the DAFGAS borehole. The major gas concentrations are constant and air-like with about 78% N₂, 21% O₂, 1% Ar. The geogas components CO₂, CH₄, He and H₂ show the most interesting trends and variations on the minute-by-minute basis and significantly correlate with seismic data, while the ²²²Rn activity remains constant. Time series and cross correlation analysis allow the identification of different gas components (geogas and tunnel air) and the identification of two processes influencing the borehole gas composition: (1) pumping-induced tunnel air breakthrough through networks of initially water-saturated fault fractures; and (2) seismicity induced permeability enhancement of fault fractures to above ∼5 × 10^-10 m². The current set-up of the gas monitoring system is sensitive enough to quantify the resulting geogas transport during periods of intense blasting activities (including recorded blasts with seismic moment ?1 × 10⁹ Nm, located within 1000 m of the cubby) and, it is suggested, also during induced earthquakes, a final goal of the project.