Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO₂ emissions indicate that by the end of the 21^st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO₂ concentrations, sea level, and water temperature of 50–160%, 0.7–1.6 m, and 2–6 °C, respectively. Also likely are increases in precipitation amount (very likely in the winter and spring), precipitation intensity, intensity of tropical and extratropical cyclones (though their frequency may decrease), and sea-level variability. The greatest uncertainty is associated with changes in annual streamflow, though it is likely that winter and spring flows will increase. Climate change alone will cause the Bay to function very differently in the future. Likely changes include: (1) an increase in coastal flooding and submergence of estuarine wetlands; (2) an increase in salinity variability on many time scales; (3) an increase in harmful algae; (4) an increase in hypoxia; (5) a reduction of eelgrass, the dominant submerged aquatic vegetation in the Bay; and (6) altered interactions among trophic levels, with subtropical fish and shellfish species ultimately being favored in the Bay. The magnitude of these changes is sensitive to the CO₂ emission trajectory, so that actions taken now to reduce CO₂ emissions will reduce climate impacts on the Bay. Research needs include improved precipitation and streamflow projections for the Bay watershed and whole-system monitoring, modeling, and process studies that can capture the likely non-linear responses of the Chesapeake Bay system to climate variability, climate change, and their interaction with other anthropogenic stressors.     

The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability on the magnetopause

Conditions for the development of Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) waves on the magnetopause have been known for more than 15 years; more recently, spacecraft observations have stimulated further examination of the properties of K-H waves. For amagnetopause with no boundary layer, two different modes of surface waves have been identified and their properties have been investigated for various assumed orientations of magnetic field and flow velocity vectors. The power radiated into the magnetosphere from the velocity shear at the boundary has been estimated. Other calculations have focused on the consequences of finite thickness boundary layers, both uniform and non-uniform. The boundary layer is found to modify the wave modes present at the magnetopause and to yield a criterion for the wavelength of the fastest growing surface waves. The paper concludes by questioning the extent to which the inferences from boundary layer models are model dependent and identifies areas where further work is needed or anticipated.     

Delta spots and great flares

Using eighteen years of observations at Big Bear, we summarize the development of δ spots and the great flares they produce. We find δ groups to develop in three ways: eruption of a single complex active region formed below the surface, eruption of large satellite spots near (particularly in front of) a large older spot, or collision of spots of opposite polarity from different dipoles. Our sample of twenty-one δ spots shows that once they lock together, they never separate, although rarely an umbra is ejected. The δ spots are already disposed to their final form when they emerge. The driving force for the shear is spot motion, either flux emergence or the forward motion of p spots in an inverted magnetic configuration. We observe the following phenomena preceding great flares:

1. δ spots, preferentially Types 1 and 2.
2. Umbrae obscured by Hα emission.
3. Bright Hα emission marking flux emergence and reconnection.
4. Greatly sheared magnetic configurations, marked by penumbral and Hα fibrils parallel to the inversion line.

We assert that with adequate spatial resolution one may predict the occurrence of great flares with these indicators.     

Crustal attenuation for Jamaica, West Indies

The S and coda wave spectra of small earthquakes on the island of Jamaica were used to determine the near surface and coda Q attenuation, and Q _c,respectively. Q _c determined by the single-station method was found in the range of 1 to 10 Hertz to be given by the relationship, Q _c= 60 ± 5f ^0.87±0.05. This suggests that the Jamaican crust is highly attenuating which is further supported by the observation of rapid intensity fall-off with distance for earthquakes that have affected the island in the past. , determined from S-wave spectra with short travel times was found to be 0.058 ± 0.012 on the central crustal block, which makes up nearly two-thirds of the island, and 0.080 ± 0.014 in surrounding belt sub-regions. The pattern of values seems to fit with the surface geology in that the central block has areas of exposed outcrops of older and harder rock than the belts, which are characterized by thicker sedimentary sequences as well as intense fracturing and faulting.Atkinson and Boore (1998) and Atkinson(2001) presented an alternative method to stochastic modelling for ground motion in Eastern North America, whereby California attenuation relationships were modified to account for crustal differences invelocity-depth profile, Q and between both regions. Following their example, the California spectral attenuation relation of Boore, Joyner and Fumal (1997) was modified to account for differences between the California and Jamaica crust, resulting in an attenuation relation that is deemed to be more appropriate for Jamaica. Spectral accelerations for Jamaica when compared to California, are especially reduced beyond 20 km from the source and at high frequencies, f 1 hertz.The study concludes that the Jamaican crust, although having an oceanic composition is highly attenuating, which may be a result of intensive tectonic processes, whereas is consistent with near-rock conditions on the central block and soft rock conditions elsewhere on the island.     

Phosphorus distribution in sinking oceanic particulate matter

Despite the recognition of the importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating marine productivity in some modern oceanic systems and over long timescales, the nature of particulate P within the ocean is not well understood. We analyzed P concentration in particulate matter from sediment traps and selected core tops from a wide range of oceanic regimes: open ocean environments (Equatorial Pacific, North Central Pacific), polar environments (Ross Sea, Palmer Deep), and coastal environments (Northern California Coast, Monterey Bay, Point Conception). These sites represent a range of productivity levels, temporal (seasonal to annual) distributions, and trap depths (200–4400 m). P associations were identified using an operationally defined sequential extraction procedure. We found that P in the sediment traps is typically composed of reactive P components including acid-insoluble organic P ( 40%), authigenic P ( 25%), and oxide associated and/or labile P ( 21%), with lesser proportions of non-reactive detrital P depending on location ( 13%). The concentrations and fluxes of all particulate P components except detrital P decrease or remain constant with depth between the shallowest and the deepest sediment traps, indicating some regeneration of reactive P components. Transformation from more labile forms of P to authigenic P is evident between the deepest traps and core top sediments. Although for most sites the magnitudes of reactive P fluxes are seasonally variable and productivity dependent, the fractional associations of reactive P are independent of season. We conclude that P is transported from the upper water column to the sediments in various forms previously considered unimportant. Thus, acid-insoluble organic P measurements (typically reported as particulate organic P) likely underestimate biologically related particulate P, because they do not include the labile, oxide-associated, or authigenic P fractions that often are or recently were biologically related. Organic C to reactive P ratios are typically higher than Redfield Ratio and are relatively constant with depth below 300 m suggesting that preferential regeneration of P relative to C occurs predominantly at shallow depths in the water column, but not deeper in the water column (> 300 m). The view of P cycling in the oceans should be revised (1) to include P fractions other than acid-soluble organic P as important carriers of reactive P in rapidly sinking particles, (2) to include the efficient transformation of labile forms of P to authigenic P in the water column as well as in sediments, and (3) to consider the occurrence of preferential P regeneration at very shallow depths.     

Individual variation in patterns of benzo[a]pyrene metabolism in the marine fish scup (Stenotomus chrysops)

The metabolism at specific sites on carcinogenic hydrocarbons such as benzo[a]pyrene (BP) is responsible for activation to the ultimate mutagens and carcinogens, and patterns of metabolism can thus influence the biological effect of such compounds. Marine fish are known to efficiently metabolize BP at the benzo-ring, forming high percentages of the 9,10-dihydrodiol (DHD) and 7,8-DHD, the latter including the penultimate carcinogen.^1,2 Hydrocarbon-induced cytochrome P-450 in fish is responsible for initiating metabolism on the benzo-ring, but epoxide hydrolase (EH) activity is required for DHD formation.^3,4 Both factors could influence formation of the DHD leading to the ultimate carcinogenic diol-epoxide. In the present study, patterns of BP metabolism were evaluated in a number of individual scup Stenotomus chrysops sampled from local Woods Hole waters, and a correlation is described between variation in the DHD formation and EH activity in these feral fish.