Impact of number of realizations on the suitability of simulated weather data for hydrologic and environmental applications

Stochastic weather generators are widely used in hydrological, environmental, and agricultural applications to simulate weather time series. However, such stochastic models produce random outputs hence the question on how representative the generated data are if obtained from only one simulation run (realization) as is common practice. In this study, the impact of different numbers of realizations (1, 25, 50, and 100) on the suitability of generated weather data was investigated. Specifically, 50 years of daily precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperatures were generated for three weather stations in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB), using three widely used weather generators, CLIGEN, LARSWG and WeaGETS. Generated results were compared with 50 years of observed data. For all three generators, the analyses showed that one realization of data for 50 years of daily precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperatures may not be representative enough to capture essential statistical characteristics of the climate. Results from the three generators captured the essential statistical characteristics of the climate when the number of realizations was increased from 1 to 25, 50 or 100. Performance did not improve substantially when realizations were increased above 25. Results suggest the need for more than a single realization when generating weather data and subsequently utilizing in other models, to obtain suitable representations of climate.     

Productivity and biomass of the seagrassThalassia testudinum along a gradient of freshwater influence in Charlotte Harbor, Florida

Eight meadows of the seagrassThalassia testudinum Banks ex König representing a gradient of freshwater influence in Charlotte Harbor, Florida (United States), were sampled on a bimonthly basis from April 1995 to August 1996. Spatial and temporal variation in the density, biomass, productivity, and epiphyte loads of short shoots were determined. Physical factors such as water temperature, salinity, and light extinction coefficients were also measured. Areal blade production (g dw m^?2 d^?1) ofT. testudinum was not strongly associated with water temperature, salinity, or the amount of subsurface irradiance reaching the bottom at each station. Variation in production could be described by a linear combination of the independent variables water temperature and salinity. Water clarity (expressed as the percent of subsurface irradiance reaching the bottom) was positively related to salinity. The lack of a clear relationship between water clarity and areal production was probably due to water clarity being highest during times of the year when water temperatures were too cold to support growth ofT. testudinum. Our results suggest that seagrass light requirements determined by averaging irradiance levels measured during the growing season might be more relevant than those established by averaging light measurements collected throughout the year. The use of field studies for estimating lower salinity tolerances of seagrasses might be inappropriate for those systems where water clarity is positively associated with salinity.     

Decadal changes in seagrass distribution and abundance in Florida Bay

The Florida Bay ecosystem has changed substantially in the past decade, and alterations in the seagrass communities have been particularly conspicuous. In 1987 large areas ofThalassia testudinum (turtlegrass) began dying rapidly in western Florida Bay. Although the rate has slowed considerably, die-off continues in many parts of the bay. Since 1991, seagrasses in Florida Bay have been subjected to decreased light availability due to widespread, persistent microalgal blooms and resuspended sediments. In light of these recent impacts, we determined the current status of Florida Bay seagrass communities. During the summer of 1994, seagrass species composition, shoot density, shoot morphometrics, and standing crop were measured at 107 stations. Seagrasses had been quantified at these same stations 10 yr earlier by Zieman et al. (1989).T. testudinum was the most widespread and abundant seagrass species in Florida Bay in both 1984 and 1994, and turtlegrass distribution changed little over the decade. On a baywide basis,T. testudinum density and biomass declined significantly between surveys; mean short-shoot density ofT. testudinum dropped by 22% and standing crop by 28% over the decade.T. testudinum decline was not homogeneous throughout Florida Bay; largest reductions in shoot density and biomass were located principally in the central and western bay. Percent loss ofT. testudinum standing crop in western Florida Bay in 1994 was considerably greater at the stations with the highest levels of standing crop in 1984 (126–215 g dry wt m⁻²) than at the stations with lower levels of biomass. While turtlegrass distribution remained consistent over time, both the distribution and abundance of two other seagrasses,Halodule wrightii andSyringodium filiforme, declined substantially between 1984 and 1994. Baywide,H. wrightii shoot density and standing crop declined by 92%, andS. filiforme density and standing crop declined by 93% and 88%, respectively, between surveys. Patterns of seagrass loss in Florida Bay between 1984 and 1994 suggest die-off and chronic light reductions were the most likely causes for decline. If die-off and persistent water-column turbidity continue in Florida Bay, the long-term future of seagrasses in the bay is uncertain.     

A multi-proxy trophic state reconstruction for shallow Orange Lake, Florida, USA: possible influence of macrophytes on limnetic nutrient concentrations

We retrieved four sediment cores from shallow, eutrophic, macrophyte-dominated Orange Lake (A = 51.4 km2, zmax <5 m, zmean < 2 m), north-central Florida, USA. The 210Pb-dated profiles were used to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of bulk sediment and nutrient accumulation in the limnetic zone and to infer historical changes in lake trophic state. Bulk density, organic matter, total carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and non-apatite inorganic phosphorus (NAIP) concentrations displayed stratigraphic similarities among three of four cores, as did accumulation rates of bulk sediment, organic matter and nutrients. Accumulation rates were slower at the fourth site. Nutrients showed generally increasing rates of accumulation since the turn of the century. Percentages of periphytic diatom taxa increased progressively in the cores after ~ 1930. Diatom-inferred limnetic total P trends were similar among profiles. Eutrophic conditions were inferred for the period prior to the turn of the century. The lake was hypereutrophic in the early decades of the 1900s, but inferred limnetic total P values declined after ~ 1930. Declining inferred limnetic total P trends for the last 60--70 years were accompanied by concomitant increases in accumulation rates of total P and NAIP on the lake bottom. Several lines of evidence suggest that after ~ 1930, phosphorus entering Orange Lake was increasingly utilized by submersed macrophytes. Paleolimnological records from Orange Lake highlight the importance of using multiple sediment variables to infer past trophic state and suggest that aquatic macrophytes can play a role in regulating water-column nutrient concentrations in shallow, warm-temperate lakes.     

Seasonal variations in dissolved organic carbon concentrations and characteristics in a shallow coastal bay

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and dynamics in temperate shallow coastal bays are not well described although these bays may be important as local sources of organic carbon to ocean waters and are often sites of economically-important fisheries and aquaculture. In this study surface water samples were collected on a monthly to bi-monthly basis over two years from a mid-Atlantic coastal bay (Chincoteague Bay, Virginia and Maryland, USA). Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations and light absorbance characteristics were measured on sterile-filtered water, and high-molecular weight (> 1 kDa) dissolved OM (DOM) was isolated to determine stable isotope composition and molecular-level characteristics. Our time series encompassed both a drought year (2002) and a year of above-average rainfall (2003). During the dry year, one of our sites developed a very intense bloom of the brown tide organism Aureococcus anophagefferens while during the wet year there were brown tide bloom events at both of our sampling sites. During early spring of the wet year, there were higher concentrations of > 1 kDa DOC; this fraction represented a larger proportion of overall DOC and appeared considerably more allochthonous. Based upon colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and high-molecular weight DOM analyses, the development of extensive phytoplankton blooms during our sampling period significantly altered the quality of the DOM. Throughout both years Chincoteague Bay had high DOC concentrations relative to values reported for the coastal ocean. This observation, in conjunction with the observed effects of phytoplankton blooms on DOM composition, indicates that Chincoteague Bay may be a significant local source of “recently-fixed” organic carbon to shelf waters. Estimating inputs of DOC from Chincoteague Bay to the Mid-Atlantic Bight suggests that shallow productive bays should be considered in studies of organic carbon on continental shelves.     

A Comparison of Office-Derived vs. Field-Derived Water Table Maps for a Sandy Unconfined Aquifer

This study compares the accuracy of two types of water table maps both of which were constructed with the object of optimizing future mapping efforts in similar environments. The. first type of map is based solely on office information, with no field verification. The second type of map is based on careful field mapping using numerous measurement points.
The office-derived maps were based on topography, surface water features, existing reports, maps and data in the files of the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey; the data were not field-verified. The field-derived maps used a dense network of 236 piezometers at 176 sites in an area of approximately 170 square miles. The field project was much more expensive and labor-intensive than was the construction of office-derived maps for the same area.
The two methods produce water table maps which agree to an appreciable extent, the greatest agreement being in areas having ground water-fed streams. Differences in water table elevations indicated by the two methods range from negligible to approximately 5 feet. Thus, depending upon the availability of existing information, relatively accurate water table elevations can be delineated in similar sandy unconfined aquifers without time-consuming and expensive field work that drilling and piezometer installation entails.
Preliminary construction of office-derived water table maps enables researchers to use their resources efficiently. In some situations, expensive installation of wells and piezometers for a regional monitoring network may add little accuracy to the regional map. For localized problems, collection of additional field data will always be necessary, but can be guided by the office-derived maps. The authors caution that this technique may only be applicable to sandy, unconfined aquifers in humid climates.     

Book reviews

WETLANDS: a threatened landscape (Institute of British Geographers Special Publication Series No.25) edited by M. Williams. 17 × 24 cm, x + 419 pp. Blackwell, Oxford 1993 (first published 1990) (ISBN 0 631 19199 2) $65.00 (soft).

GUIDE TO MAPS IN SOUTH AUSTRALIAN PARLIAMENTARY PAPERS 1852–1971 (Historical Geography Monograph No.7) edited by J. McQuilton. 21 × 29 cm, 178 pp. Australian Reference Publications, Melbourne 1994 (ISBN 0 9587876 4 6).

THE EMERGENCE OF BIOREGIONALISM IN THE MURRAY‐DARLING BASIN by J.M. Powell. 21 × 30 cm, 105 pp. Murray‐Darling Basin Commission, Canberra 1993. (ISBN 1 875209 212) $20.00 (soft).     

The Hα/Hβ ratio in solar flares

We have measured the ratio of H to H central intensities in the peak kernels of 14 flares, using simultaneous filtergrams. The ratio is typically one with some scatter. By contrast, in stellar flares the ratio is about 0.8.