Geophysical Finite-Element Simulation Tool (GeoFEST): Algorithms and Validation for Quasistatic Regional Faulted Crust Problems

GeoFEST (Geophysical Finite Element Simulation Tool) is a two- and three-dimensional finite element software package for the modeling of solid stress and strain in geophysical and other continuum domain applications. It is one of the featured high-performance applications of the NASA QuakeSim project. The program is targeted to be compiled and run on UNIX systems, and is running on diverse systems including sequential and message-passing parallel systems. Solution to the elliptical partial differential equations is obtained by finite element basis sampling, resulting in a sparse linear system primarily solved by conjugate gradient iteration to a tolerance level; on sequential systems a Crout factorization for the direct inversion of the linear system is also supported. The physics models supported include isotropic linear elasticity and both Newtonian and power-law viscoelasticity, via implicit quasi-static time stepping. In addition to triangular, quadrilateral, tetrahedral and hexahedral continuum elements, GeoFEST supports split-node faulting, body forces, and surface tractions. This software and related mesh refinement strategies have been validated on a variety of test cases with rigorous comparison to analytical solutions. These include a box-shaped domain with imposed motion on one surface, a pair of strike slip faults in stepover arrangement, and two community-agreed benchmark cases: a strike slip fault in an enclosing box, and a quarter-domain circular fault problem. Scientific applications of the code include the modeling of static and transient co- and post-seismic earth deformation, Earth response to glacial, atmospheric and hydrological loading, and other scenarios involving the bulk deformation of geologic media.     

Quantifying the effects of environmental change on an oyster population: A modeling study

Three models are combined to investigate the effects of changes in environmental conditions on the population structure of the Eastern oyster,Crassostrea virginica. The first model, a time-dependent model of the oyster population as described in Powell et al. (1992, 1994, 1995a,b, 1996, 1997) and Hofmann et al. (1992, 1994, 1995), tracks the distribution, development, spawning, and mortality of sessile oyster populations. The second model, a time-dependent larval growth model as described in Dekshenieks et al. (1993), simulates larval growth and mortality. The final model, a finite element hydrodynamic model, simulates the circulation in Galveston Bay, Texas. The coupled post-settlement-larval model (the oyster model) runs within the finite element grid at locations that include known oyster reef habitats. The oyster model was first forced with 5 yr of mean environmental conditions to provide a reference simulation for Galveston Bay. Additional simulations considered the effects of long-term increases and decreases in freshwater inflow and temperature, as well as decreases in food concentration and total seston on Galveston Bay oyster populations. In general, the simulations show that salinity is the primary environmental factor controling the spatial extent of oyster distribution within the estuary. Results also indicate a need to consider all environmental factors when attempting to predict the response of oyster populations; it is the superposition of a combination of these factors that determines the state of the population. The results from this study allow predictions to be made concerning the effects of environmental change on the status of oyster populations, both within Galveston Bay and within other estuarine systems supporting oyster populations.     

Towards Quantifying the Likelihood of Water Resource Impacts from Unconventional Gas Development

Gas production from unconventional reservoirs has led to widespread environmental concerns. Despite several excellent reviews of various potential impacts to water resources from unconventional gas production, no study has systematically and quantitatively assessed the potential for these impacts to occur. We use empirical evidence and numerical and analytical models to quantify the likelihood of surface water and groundwater contamination, and shallow aquifer depletion from unconventional gas developments. These likelihoods are not intended to be exact. They provide a starting point for comparing the probabilities of adverse impacts between types of water resources and pathways. This analysis provides much needed insight into what are “probable” rather than simply “possible” impacts. The results suggest that the most likely water resource impacts are surface water and groundwater contamination from spills at the well pad, which can be as high as 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 for each gas well, respectively. For wells that are hydraulically fractured, the likelihood of contamination due to inter-aquifer leakage is 1 in 10⁶ or lower (dependent on the separation distance between the production formation and the aquifer). For gas-bearing formations that were initially over-pressurized, the potential for contamination from inter-aquifer leakage after production ceases could be as high as 1 in 400 where the separation between gas formation and shallow aquifer is 500 m, but will be much lower for greater separation distances (more characteristic of shale gas).     

Uranium and thorium isotope concentrations in foraminiferal calcite

Uranium and thorium isotope activities were measured by isotope dilution alpha spectrometry in four late Pleistocene and Holocene foraminiferal calcite samples. Sample cleaning methods were utilized to separate calcite tests from contaminating clay and surface oxide coatings. The maximum concentration of lattice bound uranium is 0.023 ppm (10 × 10^?9 moles U/mole Ca), consistent with the lowest reported value, 0.025 ppm [1].²³⁰Th/²³⁴U activity ratios in samples cleaned as described above are much greater than one, indicating that the cleaning methods used do not effectively remove²³⁰Th from the surfaces of the calcite. The upper limit for lattice bound²³²Th is 0.039 ppm (17 × 10^?9 moles Th/mole Ca).     

Magnetic cleansing of weathered/tarry oiled feathers--the role of pre-conditioners

Iron powder has previously been demonstrated to be effective in the removal, via magnetic harvesting, of a wide variety of oil contaminants from feathers and plumage. This study investigates the efficacy of magnetic cleansing for the removal from feathers of tarry contamination that has been allowed to weather. Clusters of feathers from Mallard duck (Anas platyrhnchos) and Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) were completely immersed in a tarry contaminant and allowed to weather from one to fourteen days. The contaminant was removed using a magnetic cleansing protocol and the removal efficacy assessed gravimetrically. For one, seven and fourteen days of weathering, a final removal (after fourteen treatments) of more than 99% and 97% was achieved for duck feathers and penguin feathers, respectively. Repeating the experiments (for a seven-day weathering period) for both duck and penguin feathers, with the judicious application of a pre-conditioner (olive oil), further improved removal efficacy. A convenient method to screen for improved pre-conditioning agents is suggested.     

Short‐ and long‐term evapotranspiration rates at ecological restoration sites along a large river receiving rare flow events

Many large rivers around the world no longer flow to their deltas, due to ever greater water withdrawals and diversions for human needs. However, the importance of riparian ecosystems is drawing increasing recognition, leading to the allocation of environmental flows to restore river processes. Accurate estimates of riparian plant evapotranspiration (ET) are needed to understand how the riverine system responds to these rare events and achieve the goals of environmental flows. In 2014, historic environmental flows were released into the Lower Colorado River at Morelos Dam (Mexico); this once perennial but now dry reach is the final stretch to the mighty Colorado River Delta. One of the primary goals was to supply native vegetation restoration sites along the reach with water to help seedlings establish and boost groundwater levels to foster the planted saplings. Patterns in ET before, during, and after the flows are useful for evaluating whether this goal was met and understanding the role that ET plays in this now ephemeral river system. Here, diurnal fluctuations in groundwater levels and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to compare estimates of ET specifically at 3 native vegetation restoration sites during 2014 planned flow events, and MODIS data were used to evaluate long‐term (2002–2016) ET responses to restoration efforts at these sites. Overall, ET was generally 0–10 mm d^?1 across sites, and although daily ET values from groundwater data were highly variable, weekly averaged estimates were highly correlated with MODIS‐derived estimates at most sites. The influence of the 2014 flow events was not immediately apparent in the results, although the process of clearing vegetation and planting native vegetation at the restoration sites was clearly visible in the results.     

First evidence of IMF control of Jovian magnetospheric boundary locations: Cassini and Galileo magnetic field measurements compared

The Cassini spacecraft, en route to Saturn, passed close to Jupiter while the Galileo spacecraft was completing its 28th and 29th orbits of Jupiter, thus offering a unique opportunity for direct study of the solar wind-Jovian interaction. Here evidence is given of response of the Jovian magnetopause and bow shock positions to changes of the north-south component of the solar wind magnetic field, a phenomenon long known to occur in equivalent circumstances at Earth. The period analyzed starts with the passage over Cassini of an interplanetary shock far upstream of Jupiter. The shock's arrival at Galileo on the dusk-flank of the magnetosphere caused Galileo to exit into the solar wind. Using inter-spacecraft timing based on the time delay established from the shock arrival at each spacecraft, we point out that Galileo's position with respect to the Jovian bow shock appears to correlate with changes in the disturbed north-south reversing field seen behind the shock. We specifically rule out the alternative of changes in the shape of the bow shock with rotations of the interplanetary magnetic field as the cause.     

Climatic Trends and Temporal Patterns of Phytoplankton Composition, Abundance, and Succession in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, USA

This paper describes the results of 10 years of water quality monitoring in the Indian River Lagoon Florida, with special emphasis on the relationships between trends in climatic conditions and the distribution, composition, and abundance of the phytoplankton community. The Indian River Lagoon, which spans 220 km of Florida’s east coast, is a region of particular concern because of the rapid rate of human development throughout the region and the hydrologically restricted character of the lagoon, which heightens the potential for algal bloom. Water sampling was carried out on a monthly to twice-monthly basis at six sites located in the northern and central lagoon. The 10-year study included both extended periods of below and above average rainfall. A number of ecologically distinct regions exist within the lagoon, which differ considerably in water exchange properties and watershed inputs. The northern lagoon is characterized by longer water residence times, lower phosphorus concentrations, higher nitrogen concentrations, and more stable salinity conditions than the central lagoon. Mean phytoplankton biovolumes were substantially higher at the sites in the northern lagoon than at the sites in the central lagoon, and algal blooms were more common and intense in the former region. Inter-annual patterns of phytoplankton biovolume were also different in the northern and central lagoon. In the northern lagoon, phytoplankton biovolumes were lowest during the drought period, from the autumn of 1998 to the spring of 2001. By contrast, algal bloom events in the central lagoon were not only less frequent but were not tied to periods of high rainfall. The most widespread and common bloom formers were the potentially toxic dinoflagellate Pyrodinium bahamense var. bahamense and two centric diatoms, Dactyliosolen fragilissimus and Cerataulina pelagica. Many of the biovolume peaks observed over the study period were attributable to these three species. The results of time series modeling of phytoplankton dynamics further highlighted the disparities between the two regions of the lagoon in terms of the suite of parameters that best predict the observed trends in the biomass of phytoplankton. Overall, the outcome of this initial modeling effort in the Indian River Lagoon suggests that time series approaches can help define the factors that influence phytoplankton dynamics.     

Stars in stone: the Annenberg Courtyard fountains

The transformation of the courtyard at Burlington House involves more than just new paving. Margaret Penston explains the astronomical theme that underpins the design and layout of the fountains and lighting.