Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

Warm‐temperate,marine, carbonate sedimentation in an Early Miocene,tide‐influenced,incised valley; Provence,south‐east France

The Saumane‐Venasque compound palaeovalley succession accumulated in a strongly tide‐influenced embayment or estuary. Warm‐temperate normal marine to brackish conditions led to deposition of extensive cross‐bedded biofragmental calcarenites. Echinoids, bryozoans, coralline algae, barnacles and benthic foraminifera were produced in seagrass meadows, on rocky substrates colonized by macroalgae and within subaqueous dune fields. There are two sequences, S1 and S2, the first of which contains three high‐frequency sequences (S1a, S1b and S1c). Sequence 1 is largely confined to the palaeovalley with its upper part covering interfluves. Each of these has a similar upward succession of deposits that includes: (i) a basal erosional surface that is bored and glauconitized; (ii) a discontinuous lagoonal lime mudstone or wackestone; (iii) a thin conglomerate generated by tidal ravinement; (iv) a transgressive systems tract series of cross‐bedded calcarenites; (v) a maximum flooding interval of argillaceous, muddy quartzose, open‐marine limestones; and (vi) a thin highstand systems tract of fine‐grained calcarenite. Tidal currents during stages S1a, S1b and S1c were accentuated by the constricted valley topography, whereas basin‐scale factors enhanced tidal currents during the deposition of S2. The upper part of the succession in all but S1c has been removed by later erosion. There is an overall upward temporal change with quartz, barnacles, encrusting corallines and epifaunal echinoids decreasing but bryozoans, articulated corallines and infaunal echinoids increasing. This trend is interpreted to be the result of changing oceanographic conditions as the valley was filled, bathymetric relief was reduced, rocky substrates were replaced as carbonate factories by seagrass meadows and subaqueous dunes, and the setting became progressively less confined and more open marine. These limestones are characteristic of a suite of similar cool‐water calcareous sand bodies in environments with little siliciclastic or fresh water input during times of high‐amplitude sea‐level change wherein complex inboard antecedent topography was flooded by a rising ocean.     

Observations of Thin Layers in Coastal Hawaiian Waters

Thin layers of plankton have been documented in a wide variety of environments. The growing body of observations indicates that these features are a critical component of marine ecosystem dynamics and functioning. In the past two decades, much of the research on thin layers was undertaken in temperate coastal waters. Here, we report the first known observations of thin layers of phytoplankton in tropical Hawaiian waters. We conducted an overnight shipboard study during which time we made high-resolution observations of physical and optical structure in the water column. During the overnight cruise, we observed the greatest number of thin layers in the early evening hours when thermal stratification was strongest and most persistent due to a combination of warm air and surface water, as well as light winds. A comparison of these observations with those from temperate regions leads us to hypothesize that the nature and persistence of the physical structure is very important in determining the persistence of thin layered structures. Because plankton biomass is generally lower in tropical regions, the heterogeneous aggregation of food in thin subsurface layers may be more critical to the marine ecosystem than it is in temperate regions where plankton are generally more abundant.     

Development of tools to estimate conveyance losses in the Truckee River, USA

A method to estimate stream conveyance losses, including stream bank seepage and evapotranspiration from riparian areas, was developed for the Truckee River in California and Nevada (USA). Aquifer diffusivity is the primary variable required to compute aquifer head and seepage. Head and seepage conceptual models developed in previous studies were calibrated using stream stage and aquifer head at five sites along the Truckee River. The equations for head require numerical convolution to solve. It was found that head is insensitive to diffusivity and a single value for diffusivity provides good results at all study sites. Also, because releases from storage are usually prescribed as a step increase in flow for a given period of time followed by a step decrease in flow, an analytic solution for volume of seepage can be used in place of numerical convolution. Under typical operating conditions, seepage volume represents a small fraction of the total reservoir releases. Uncertainty in seepage estimates can be reduced with increased accuracy in hydraulic conductivity. This work demonstrates a valuable technique to estimate conveyance losses under natural and managed stream flow.     

Depositional ice nucleation on NX illite and mixtures of NX illite with organic acids

Mineral dust particles are known to be efficient ice nuclei in the atmosphere. Previous work has probed heterogeneous ice nucleation on various laboratory dust samples including Arizona Test Dust, kaolinite, montmorillonite, and illite as atmospheric dust surrogates. However, it has recently been suggested that NX illite may be a better representation of atmospheric dust. Hiranuma et al. (2015) performed a laboratory comparison for immersion ice nucleation on NX illite, but here we focus on depositional ice nucleation because of its importance in low temperature cirrus cloud formation. A Raman microscope setup was used to examine the ice-nucleating efficiency of NX illite. Organic coatings on the NX illite particles were also investigated using a mixture of 5 dicarboxylic acids (M5). The ratio of NX illite to M5 was varied from 1:10 to 100:1. It was found that NX illite efficiently nucleates ice with S_ice = 1.07 ± 0.01 at ?47 °C, with S_ice slightly increasing at lower temperatures. In contrast, pure M5 is a poorer ice nucleus with S_ice = 1.30 ± 0.02 at ?40 °C, relatively independent of temperature. Further, it was found that M5 coatings on the order of several monolayers thick hindered the ice nucleating ability of NX illite. Optical images suggest that at colder temperatures (< ?50 °C) 1:1 NX illite:M5 particles and pure M5 particles nucleate ice depositionally, while at warmer temperatures (> ?50 °C) subsaturated immersion ice nucleation dominates. These experiments suggest that mineral dust particles may become less active towards ice nucleation as they age in the atmosphere.     

Induced Temperature Gradients to Examine Groundwater Flowpaths in Open Boreholes

Techniques for characterizing the hydraulic properties and groundwater flow processes of aquifers are essential to design hydrogeologic conceptual models. In this study, rapid time series temperature profiles within open‐groundwater wells in fractured rock were measured using fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS). To identify zones of active groundwater flow, two continuous electrical heating cables were installed alongside a FO‐DTS cable to heat the column of water within the well and to create a temperature difference between the ambient temperature of the groundwater in the aquifer and that within the well. Additional tests were performed to examine the effects of pumping on hydraulic fracture interconnectivity around the well and to identify zones of increased groundwater flow. High‐ and low‐resolution FO‐DTS cable configurations were examined to test the sensitivities of the technique and compared with downhole video footage and geophysical logging to confirm the zones of active groundwater flow. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this new technique for rapid characterization of fracture zones in open boreholes. The combination of the FO‐DTS and heating cable has excellent scope as a rapid appraisal tool for borehole construction design and improving hydrogeologic conceptual models.     

Exploring effects of climate change on Northern Plains American Indian health

American Indians have unique vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change because of the links among ecosystems, cultural practices, and public health, but also as a result of limited resources available to address infrastructure needs. On the Crow Reservation in south-central Montana, a Northern Plains American Indian Reservation, there are community concerns about the consequences of climate change impacts for community health and local ecosystems. Observations made by Tribal Elders about decreasing annual snowfall and milder winter temperatures over the 20th century initiated an investigation of local climate and hydrologic data by the Tribal College. The resulting analysis of meteorological data confirmed the decline in annual snowfall and an increase in frost free days. In addition, the data show a shift in precipitation from winter to early spring. The number of days exceeding 90 ?F (32 ?C) has doubled in the past century. Streamflow data show a long-term trend of declining discharge. Elders noted that the changes are affecting fish distribution within local streams and plant species which provide subsistence foods. Concerns about warmer summer temperatures also include heat exposure during outdoor ceremonies that involve days of fasting without food or water. Additional community concerns about the effects of climate change include increasing flood frequency and fire severity, as well as declining water quality. The authors call for local research to understand and document current effects and project future impacts as a basis for planning adaptive strategies.     

Towards Quantifying the Likelihood of Water Resource Impacts from Unconventional Gas Development

Gas production from unconventional reservoirs has led to widespread environmental concerns. Despite several excellent reviews of various potential impacts to water resources from unconventional gas production, no study has systematically and quantitatively assessed the potential for these impacts to occur. We use empirical evidence and numerical and analytical models to quantify the likelihood of surface water and groundwater contamination, and shallow aquifer depletion from unconventional gas developments. These likelihoods are not intended to be exact. They provide a starting point for comparing the probabilities of adverse impacts between types of water resources and pathways. This analysis provides much needed insight into what are “probable” rather than simply “possible” impacts. The results suggest that the most likely water resource impacts are surface water and groundwater contamination from spills at the well pad, which can be as high as 1 in 10 and 1 in 100 for each gas well, respectively. For wells that are hydraulically fractured, the likelihood of contamination due to inter-aquifer leakage is 1 in 10⁶ or lower (dependent on the separation distance between the production formation and the aquifer). For gas-bearing formations that were initially over-pressurized, the potential for contamination from inter-aquifer leakage after production ceases could be as high as 1 in 400 where the separation between gas formation and shallow aquifer is 500 m, but will be much lower for greater separation distances (more characteristic of shale gas).