Calculations of river-runoff in the GISS GGM: impact of a new land-surface parameterization and runoff routing model on the hydrology of the Amazon River

This study examines the impact of a new land-surface parameterization and a river routing scheme on the hydrology of the Amazon basin, as depicted by the NASA/Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) global climate model (GCM). The more physically realistic land surface scheme introduces a vegetation canopy resistance and a six-layer soil system. The new routing scheme allows runoff to travel from a river's headwater to its mouth according to topography and other channel characteristics and improves the timing of the peak flow. River runoff is examined near the mouth of the Amazon and for all of its sub-basins. With the new land-surface parameterization, river run-off increases significantly and is consistent with that observed in most basins and at the mouth. The representation of the river hydrology in small basins is not as satisfactory as in larger basins. One positive impact of the new land-surface parameterization is that it produces more realistic evaporation over the Amazon basin, which was too high in the previous version of the GCM. The realistic depiction of evaporation also affects the thermal regime in the lower atmosphere in the Amazon. In fact, the lower evaporation in some portions of the basin reduces the cloudiness, increases the solar radiation reaching the ground, increases the net radiation at the surface, and warms the surface as compared to observations. Further GCM improvement is needed to obtain a better representation of rainfall processes.     

An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends

We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident.     

Observational and modelling studies of Amazonia interannual climate variability

The interannual variability of climate in the Amazon basin is studied using precipitation and river level anomalies observed near the March/April rainy season peak for the period 1980–86, supported by satellite imagery of tropical convection. Evaluation of this data in conjunction with the corresponding circulation and sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns indicates that abundant rainy seasons in Northern Amazonia are characterized by anomalously cold surface waters in the tropical eastern Pacific, and negative/positive SST anomalies in the tropical North/South Atlantic, accelerated Northeast trades and a southward displaced Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic sector. Years with deficient rainfall show broadly opposite patterns.General circulation model (GCM) experiments using observed SST in three case studies were aimed at testing the teleconnections between SST and Amazon climate implied by the empirical analysis. The GCM-generated surface fields resemble the corresponding observers fields most closely over the tropical Pacific and, with one exception, over the tropical Atlantic as well. The modeled precipitation features, along the Northwest coast of South America, anomalies of opposite sign to the North and South of the equator, in agreement with observations and results from a different GCM. Similarities in simulations run from different initial conditions, but using the same global SST, indicate broad consistency in response to common boundary forcing.     

Mid-IR Imaging and Modelling of AGB Circumstellar Envelopes

We present new mid-IR images of AGB and post-AGB circumstellar envelopes (CSEs) obtained with the 10–20 μm imaging camera CAMIRAS mounted at the TIRGO infrared telescope (Gornergrat, Switzerland). Diffraction limited images of the sources are obtained, and extended emission for the brightest sources is detected for several arcseconds. Simple radiative transfer modelling is necessary to fit the observed data and derive the physical and chemical state of the envelope. This kind of analysis is an important test for dust formation theories, because it gives indications of dust properties along their condensation path through the envelope. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate downscaling over South America for 1961–1970 using the Eta Model

This study shows the results from a regional climate simulation of the present-day climate, corresponding to the period 1961–1970 over South America, using the regional Eta Model nested within the HadAM3P model from the UK Hadley Centre. The simulation analysis is focused on assessing the capability of the nested regional model in representing spatial patterns of seasonal mean climate and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature. The goals of this 10-year run for South America are to verify if the Eta Model can be used in climate-change scenarios and to verify if this model has the ability to generate added value for the South American continent. The Eta Model was chosen because there are few investigations using the Eta Model for long integrations over South America and because the vertical coordinate system used in this model is recommended for use over South America due to the presence of the Andes range. In the present 10-year simulation, the regional model reproduced many of the South American mesoscale climate features and together added new value to the driver model. Value was also added to the driver model by reducing seasonal biases in austral winter relative to austral summer. The regional model also exhibits better performance in the representation of low-level circulation, such as the topographically induced northwesterly flux.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Variations and change in south American streamflow

Long-term hydroclimatological records in tropical South America have been analyzed in order to determine whether or not there have been significant changes in the hydrological cycle. Streamflow data from several rivers in Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, as well as rainfall in Northeast Brazil have been used here for the study of long-term and interannual variations on hydrological conditions in different regions of South America. The Mann-Kendall statistical test is applied to the historical streamflow annual series in order to detect trends or changes in the mean. The Studentt-test is also applied to study the relationship between interannual variability and the magnitude of change and length of data required to identify a statistically significant trend.It follows from the statistical analysis of the currently available historical river data set that there is no clear evidence of trend or change in the mean streamflow of South American rivers resulting from a climate change, even though significant trends towards drier conditions have been found for rivers in the Northwest coast of Peru and in eastern Brazil. Interannual variations characterized the hydrology of tropical South America, in association with the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation. The change required to identify a statistically significant variation in the mean is directly proportional to the interannual variability. The effects of Amazon deforestation are not noticeable on the 1903-92 interannual variability of the Rio Negro series at Manaus nor in rainfall time series.     

Growth dynamics and bioactivity variation of the Mediterranean demosponges Agelas oroides (Agelasida, Agelasidae) and Petrosia ficiformis (Haplosclerida, Petrosiidae)

Growth dynamics and bioactivity variation of the Mediterranean demosponges Agelas oroides and Petrosia ficiformis were investigated over 15 months at Paraggi and Colombara within the Marine Reserve of Portofino Promontory (Mediterranean Sea, Ligurian Sea, Italy). For both species, growth rates varied between individuals and were unaffected by initial sponge size. The two species showed a different trend in growth pattern: A. oroides did not vary significantly between seasons, sites and depths; in contrast, some individuals of P. ficiformis showed a seasonal pattern, shrinking during winter as water temperature decreased and growing during summer when water temperature increased. Differences in growth between the two species may result from different reproductive cycles, food availability, species-specific thermophily and patterns of spatial competition. Moreover, spatial competition probably induced sponges to produce bioactive secondary molecules. Spatial and temporal variation of bioactivity of both species was examined for the first time by studying its effect on human neuroblastoma cells. The bioactivity of A. oroides extracts differed significantly between seasons, sites and depths, whereas the cytotoxicity of P. ficiformis differed significantly between seasons and depths (differences for sites were not determined). These results suggest the possible influence of environmental factors on bioactive metabolite biosynthesis.     

Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon basin

Summary An analysis of decadal and long-term patterns of rainfall has been carried out using a combination of raingauge and gridded rainfall datasets, for the entire Amazon basin and for its northern and southern sub-basins. The study covers the period 1929–98. Rainfall variability and variations in circulation and sea surface temperature fields have been analysed in more detail for the period 1950–98. Negative rainfall trends were identified for the entire Amazon basin, while at the regional level there is a negative trend in northern Amazonia and positive trend in southern Amazonia. Decadal time scale variations in rainfall have been discovered, with periods of relatively drier and wetter conditions, with different behaviour in northern and southern Amazonia. Spectral analyses show decadal time scale variations in southern Amazonia, while northern Amazonia exhibits both interannual and decadal scale variations. Shifts in the rainfall regime in both sections of the Amazon basin were identified as occurring in the mid-1940s and 1970s. After 1975–76, northern Amazonia received less rainfall than before 1975. Changes in the circulation and oceanic fields after 1975 suggest an important role of the warming of the tropical central and eastern Pacific on the decreasing rainfall in northern Amazonia, due to more frequent and intense El Niño events during the relatively dry period 1975–98.