Some numerical urban boundary-layer studies

Two types of models, describing respectively the thermal and the dynamic structure of the urban boundary layer are presented. The influence of density and height of urban buildings, urban traffic, man-made heat flux, changes of albedo and existence of an aerosol layer are tested. The models give a possibility of explaining the influence of selected factors on the atmospheric state over an urban area.On sabbatical at Meteorological Department, University Uppsala, Sweden.     

Carbon and oxygen isotopic composition and foraminifers of condensed basal Zechstein (Upper Permian) strata in western Poland: environmental and stratigraphic implications

The basinal facies of the Lopingian Zechstein Limestone in SW Poland consists of thin (often less than 1 m thick) limestones and/or dolomites, often containing the Kupferschiefer (few tens of centimetres thick) at their base, and local thick (up to 90 m) reefal carbonates. The δ¹³C curve of these basal Zechstein deposits strongly suggests that even when the Kupferschiefer is lacking, the thin (condensed) sequences record the entire interval of the Zechstein prior to the onset of evaporite deposition, in contrast to the thick reef sequences which lack the characteristic δ¹³C curve for the lowermost part of the Zechstein. The calcite samples show considerable ranges of δ¹⁸O values. If the maximum δ¹⁸O values are considered to be the closest to the pristine original ones and if δ¹⁸O_water value = 0 is assumed, then the calculated range of palaeotemperatures for the Kupferschiefer and Zechstein Limestone calcite ranges from 19 to 34 °C. The faunal restriction, common dwarf foraminifers and the predominance of lagenids in the foraminiferal assemblage indicate continual dysaerobic conditions and possibly elevated salinity of seawater during deposition of thin basinal Zechstein Limestone deposits. The mixing of shallow and deeper waters in the stratified Zechstein Basin caused by upwelling could result in prolific carbonate precipitation in reefs located at the slope of the marginal carbonate platform of the Zechstein Limestone and in isolated reefs related to palaeohighs within the basin; however, there is no isotopic record of eventual upwelling. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nowcasting sunshine number using logistic modeling

In this paper, we present a formalized approach to statistical modeling of the sunshine number, binary indicator of whether the Sun is covered by clouds introduced previously by Badescu (Theor Appl Climatol 72:127–136, 2002). Our statistical approach is based on Markov chain and logistic regression and yields fully specified probability models that are relatively easily identified (and their unknown parameters estimated) from a set of empirical data (observed sunshine number and sunshine stability number series). We discuss general structure of the model and its advantages, demonstrate its performance on real data and compare its results to classical ARIMA approach as to a competitor. Since the model parameters have clear interpretation, we also illustrate how, e.g., their inter-seasonal stability can be tested. We conclude with an outlook to future developments oriented to construction of models allowing for practically desirable smooth transition between data observed with different frequencies and with a short discussion of technical problems that such a goal brings.     

Timing of glacier advances and climate in the High Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians) during the Last Glacial Maximum

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), long valley glaciers developed on the northern and southern sides of the High Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Chlorine-36 exposure dating of moraine boulders suggests two major phases of moraine stabilization, at 26–21 ka (LGM I — maximum) and at 18 ka (LGM II). The dates suggest a significantly earlier maximum advance on the southern side of the range. Reconstructing the geometry of four glaciers in the Sucha Woda, Pańszczyca, Mlynicka and Velicka valleys allowed determining their equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) at 1460, 1460, 1650 and 1700 m asl, respectively. Based on a positive degree-day model, the mass balance and climatic parameter anomaly (temperature and precipitation) has been constrained for LGM I advance. Modeling results indicate slightly different conditions between northern and southern slopes. The N–S ELA gradient finds confirmation in slightly higher temperature (at least 1 °C) or lower precipitation (15%) on the south-facing glaciers during LGM I. The precipitation distribution over the High Tatra Mountains indicates potentially different LGM atmospheric circulation than at the present day, with reduced northwesterly inflow and increased southerly and westerly inflows of moist air masses.     

Determination of Surface Precipitation Type Based on the Data Fusion Approach

Hazardous events related to atmospheric precipitation depend not only on the intensity of surface precipitation,but also on its type.Uncertainty related to determination of the precipitation type(PT)leads to financial losses in many areas of human activity,such as the power industry,agriculture,transportation,and many more.In this study,we use machine learning(ML)algorithms with the data fusion approach to more accurately determine surface PT.Based on surface synoptic observations,ERA5 reanalysis,and radar data,we distinguish between liquid,mixed,and solid precipitation types.The study domain considers the entire area of Poland and a period from 2015 to 2017.The purpose of this work is to address the question:“How can ML techniques applied in observational and NWP data help to improve the recognition of the surface PT?”Despite testing 33 parameters,it was found that a combination of the near-surface air temperature and the depth of the warm layer in the 0-1000 m above ground level(AGL)layer contains most of the signal needed to determine surface PT.The accrued probability of detection for liquid,solid,and mixed PTs according to the developed Random Forest model is 98.0%,98.8%,and 67.3%,respectively.The application of the ML technique and data fusion approach allows to significantly improve the robustness of PT prediction compared to commonly used baseline models and provides promising results for operational forecasters.     

The influence of the limestone-quarry Čertovy schody (Czech Republic) on the precipitation chemistry and atmospheric deposition

Atmospheric precipitation samples were collected in the Bohemian Karst (30 km SW from Prague, Czech Republic) at six localities in the vicinity of the limestone-quarry Čertovy schody during years 1996–2003. Samples were analyzed for major components (Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, F⁻, Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, HCO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻) and trace metals (Cu, Mn, Fe, Zn, Pb, Be, As, Sr, Cd, Al, Cr). Deposition fluxes were calculated from more than 10 000 elemental analyses of samples collected monthly. The fluxes of monitored substances show temporal and spatial variability. The most marked attribute is the strong affection by local emission sources confirmed by the investigation of seasonal variability, temporal trend and correlation analysis.     

Modelling hydraulic and capillary-driven two-phase fluid flow in unsaturated concretes at the meso-scale with a unique coupled DEM-CFD technique

The goal of the research was to demonstrate the impact of thin porous interfacial transition zones (ITZs) between aggregates and cement matrix on fluid flow in unsaturated concrete caused by hydraulic/capillary pressure. To demonstrate this impact, a novel coupled approach to simulate the two-phase (water and moist air) flow of hydraulically and capillary-driven fluid in unsaturated concrete was developed. By merging the discrete element method (DEM) with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) under isothermal settings, the process was numerically studied at the meso-scale in two-dimensional conditions. A flow network was used to describe fluid behaviour in a continuous domain between particles. Small concrete specimens of a simplified particle mesostructure were subjected to fully coupled hydro-mechanical simulation tests. A simple uniaxial compression test was used to calibrate the pure DEM represented by bonded spheres, while a permeability and sorptivity test for an assembly of spheres was used to calibrate the pure CFD. For simplified specimens of the pure cement matrix, cement matrix with aggregate, and cement matrix with aggregate and ITZ of a given thickness, DEM/CFD simulations were performed sequentially. The numerical results of permeability and sorptivity were directly compared to the data found in the literature. A satisfactory agreement was achieved. Porous ITZs in concrete were found to reduce sorption by slowing the capillary-driven fluid flow, and to speed the full saturation of pores when sufficiently high hydraulic water pressures were dominant.