Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Sources of organic carbon in the Portuguese continental shelf sediments during the Holocene period

Organic C (OC) and total N (TN) concentrations, and stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C) in muddy deposit sediments of the Northern and Southern Portuguese continental shelf were used to identify sources of fine-sized organic matter (<63 μm) during the Holocene period. Sedimentary columns off the Guadiana (core CRIDA 05), Tagus (core MD 992332) and Douro (core KSGX 57) estuaries are characterised by elemental and isotopic values that reflect distinct sources of organic matter (OC/TN and δ¹³C ranging, respectively, from 8.5 to 21 and from −22.4‰ to −27‰). Intense supplies to the Guadiana continental shelf of fine terrigenous particles during the Younger-Dryas Event are closely linked with higher OC/TN values and lower δ¹³C ratios. During the postglacial transgression phase, an increasing contribution of marine supplies (up to 80%) occurred. Higher δ¹³C (up to −22.4‰) values and low OC/TN ratios (down to 8.5) are found as the sea level approaches the current one. The Upper Holocene records emphasize the return to enhanced terrestrial supplies except for the Little Climatic Optimum between the 11th and 15th centuries AD. This climatic event is especially obvious in the three cores as a return to marine production and a decrease in terrestrial sediment supply to the continental shelf. The return to a cooling event, the Little Ice Age, between the 15th and 19th centuries AD, is mirrored by decreased terrigenous supplies in core KSGX 57. Gradually increasing sedimentation in estuaries, as well as formation of coastal dune fields, have been hypothesized on the basis of increasing δ¹³C and decreasing OC, TN and OC/TN values.     

Sources and sinks of sediment to the Amazon margin: The Amapa coast

Modern and Holocene muddy strata were studied along the shoreline adjacent to the Amazon river mouth using sedimentological, radiochemical, physical, and seismic methods. The present paper is a synthesis of the results, collected during the AmasSeds project, that is used to outline a regional shoreline sediment budget. Erosion of relict Amazon muds in southern Amapa supplies 10⁶ tons yr^–1 to the Amazon advective mud stream. Local rivers are sediment-poor (total suspended discharge ~ 1 × 10⁶ tons yr^–1), but form depositional sandflats on the shoreface downdrift of the river mouths. Mudflat accumulation in northern Amapa sequesters 10⁶–10⁷ tons yr^–1 by tidal-flat aggradation, alongshore mudcape accretion, and sediment trapping by mangroves. The processes temporarily store 1.5 × 10⁸ tons of Amazon mud in January–June.     

Large-scale brightenings associated with flares

Flare-associated large-scale (>10¹⁰ cm) X-ray brightenings, the so-called giant arches in the nomenclature of vestka and co-workers, were discovered in images obtained by the SMM Hard X-ray Imaging Spectrometer hours after the onset of two-ribbon flares. The apparent correlation between both phenomena suggested that they could be interpreted in the framework of the same model.In this paper we show that large-scale loop brightenings, of sizes similar to the giant arches, occur also in association with confined flares in complex active regions. In these cases, the relation between the large-scale structure and the underlying flare is clearly given by the magnetic field topology. We also show that energization of these structures can be partially due to the injection of suprathermal particles that are accelerated at the separator region.We discuss the implications of these results within the framework of the interacting loops picture of flares and of the giant arch phenomenology.Member of the Carrera del Investigador Científico, CONICET, Argentina.     

Multi-thermal observations of newly formed loops in a dynamic flare

The dynamic flare of 6 November, 1980 (max 15:26 UT) developed a rich system of growing loops which could be followed in H for 1.5 hr. Throughout the flare, these loops, near the limb, were seen in emission against the disk. Theoretical computations of deviations from LTE populations for a hydrogen atom reveal that this requires electron densities in the loops close to, or in excess of 10¹² cm ^-3. From measured widths of higher Balmer lines the density at the tops of the loops was found to be 4 x 10¹² cm ^-3 if no non-thermal motions were present, or 5 × 10¹¹ cm ^-3 for a turbulent velocity of ~ 12 km s ^-1.It is now general knowledge that flare loops are initially observed in X-rays and become visible in H only after cooling. For such a high density, a loop would cool through radiation from 10⁷ to 10⁴ K within a few minutes so that the dense H loops should have heights very close to the heights of the X-ray loops. This, however, contradicts the observations obtained by the HXIS and FCS instruments on board SMM which show the X-ray loops at much higher altitudes than the loops in H. Therefore, we suggest that the density must have been significantly lower when the loops were formed and that the flare loops were apparently both shrinking and increasing in density while cooling.NAS/NRC Research Associate, on leave from CNIE, Argentina.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under contract with the National Science Foundation. Partial support for the National Solar Observatory is provided by the USAF under a Memorandum of Understanding with the NSF.     

On the hard X-ray spatial structure during the impulsive phase of solar flares

Using a simplified form of the bremsstrahlung cross-section, we obtain an analytic expression for the intensity of electron-beam-produced hard X-ray emission with depth in solar flares. The results show that footpoint emission is more likely than previously thought, and we discuss these results in the light of recent observations.Presidential Young Investigator.NAS/NRC Research Associate, on leave from CNIE, San Miguel, Argentina.     

Determination of reaeration‐rate coefficient by modified tracer gas technique

The modified tracer gas technique is used to determine the reaeration coefficient in six different water bodies of the Itajaí River basin, three with rural land use and three in urban areas. Propane was used as the tracer gas and Rhodamine WT as the conservative tracer, providing information on dilution, mixing and dispersion. Liquefied petroleum gas was used instead of high purity propane, aimed at reducing the costs associated with the field trials. Reaeration‐rate coefficients observed in the field ranged from 25.8 to 367.7 d^?1. Two data sets could be observed where smaller streams had substantially larger coefficients of between 133.1 and 367.7 d^?1, while the larger streams had values ??ranging from 25.8 to 54.5 d^?1. Five empirical equations were evaluated by comparing the values ??obtained in the field. The equations proposed by Tsivolgou and Wallace and Tsivoglou and Neal showed greater adherence to the values ??determined in the tests. Reaeration‐rate coefficients obtained in the field were correlated with the hydrodynamic characteristics of the watercourses, thus establishing a mathematical function through which to obtain estimates for future evaluations. The R² value obtained using this equation was 0.959, indicating a high correlation between the calculated values ??and those estimated in the field. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deformation of a pervasively molten middle crust: insights from the neoproterozoic Ribeira‐Araçuaí orogen (SE Brazil)

Pervasive melting of the middle crust, as inferred in Tibet and the Altiplano, probably influences the deformation of the lithosphere. To constrain strain distribution in a pervasively molten crust, we analysed the deformation in an eroded analogue of these orogens. The Ribeira‐Araçuaí orogen (SE Brazil) comprises a stack of allochthons containing large volumes of anatectic and magmatic rocks. The upper allochton (∼300 km long, 50–100 km wide and >10 km thick) involves peraluminous diatexites and leucogranites resulting from partial melting of the middle crust. It overlies another allochthon containing huge early‐ to syn‐collisional plutons intruding metasediments. Both anatexites and magmatic intrusions display a pervasive strain‐induced magmatic fabric. Homogeneous strain distribution suggests inefficient localization. U–Pb ages of ∼575 Ma imply that anatexite melting was synchronous to the early‐ to syn‐collisional magmatism. Similarity in ages magmatic and solid‐state fabrics indicates that intrusions and anatexites deformed coherently with solid‐state rocks while still molten, in response to a combination of gravity‐driven and collision‐driven deformation.