Multivariate geostatistical application for climate characterization of Minas Gerais State, Brazil

The objective of the present study was to assess for Minas Gerais the cokriging methodology, in order to characterize the spatial variability of Thornthwaite annual moisture index, annual rainfall, and average annual air temperature, based on geographical coordinates, altitude, latitude, and longitude. The climatic element data referred to 39 INMET climatic stations located in the state of Minas Gerais and in nearby areas and the covariables altitude, latitude, and longitude to the SRTM digital elevation model. Spatial dependence of data was observed through spherical cross semivariograms and cross covariance models. Box–Cox and log transformation were applied to the positive variables. In these situations, kriged predictions were back-transformed and returned to the same scale as the original data. Trend was removed using global polynomial interpolation. Universal simple cokriging best characterized the climate variables without tendentiousness and with high accuracy and precision when compared to simple cokriging. Considering the satisfactory implementation of universal simple cokriging for the monitoring of climatic elements, this methodology presents enormous potential for the characterization of climate change impact in Minas Gerais state.     

Estimating Buoyancy Heat Flux Using the Surface Renewal Technique over Four Amazonian Forest Sites in Brazil

The surface renewal (SR) method was applied for the first time to measurements of air temperature over four Amazonian forest sites and different seasons in order to obtain estimates of buoyancy heat flux. The required calibration of this method against eddy covariance resulted in a value for a specific parameter that is close to the range reported in other studies, contributing to the generalization of the SR method to different kinds of canopies. The comparison with fluxes obtained using the eddy covariance technique revealed a good match between the two methods for different sites, heights and seasons. Sites with high levels of non-stationarity in the signals of temperature and wind speed presented higher scatter in the regression with fluxes from eddy covariance. For a particular site with previously reported influence of low-frequency motions, the regression was only satisfactory, i.e., slope parameter close to unity and small offset, when oscillations with periods longer than $\approx $ ≈ 13 min were filtered out. The SR method has a great potential due to the simplicity of the instrumentation required. However, care should be taken when measuring under the influence of mesoscale motions, which can lead to high levels of non-stationarity, compromising the fundamental concepts of the SR theory.     

Concentration profiles of particles settling in the neutral and stratified atmospheric boundary layer

An expression for the vertical equilibrium concentration profile of heavy particles, including the effects of canopy on the eddy diffusivity as well as corrections for atmospheric stability, is proposed. This expression is validated against measurements of vertical concentration profiles of corn pollen above a corn field. The fitted theoretical profiles show that particle settling is correctly accounted for. The sensitivity to variations in the turbulent Schmidt number, settling velocity and stability corrections are explicitly characterized. The importance of independent measurements of the surface flux of pollen in future experiments is noted.     

From desert to Mediterranean rangelands: will increasing drought and inter-annual rainfall variability affect herbaceous annual primary productivity?

Climate change is predicted to alter the rainfall regime in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin: total annual rainfall will decrease, while seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall will increase. Such changes in the rainfall regime could potentially lead to large-scale changes in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in the region. We conducted a data-driven evaluation of herbaceous ANPP along an entire regional rainfall gradient, from desert (90 mm MAR [Mean Annual Rainfall]) to Mesic-Mediterranean (780 mm MAR) ecosystems, using the largest database ever collated for herbaceous ANPP in Israel, with the aim of predicting consequences of climate change for rangeland productivity. This research revealed that herbaceous ANPP increases with increasing rainfall along the gradient, but strong dependence on rainfall was only apparent within dry sites. Rain Use Efficiency peaks at mid-gradient in Mediterranean sites without woody vegetation (560 and 610 mm MAR). Inter-annual coefficients of variation in rainfall and herbaceous ANPP decrease along the rainfall gradient up to ca. 500 mm MAR. Climate change is more likely to affect herbaceous ANPP of rangelands in the arid end of the rainfall gradient, requiring adaptation of rangeland management, while ANPP of rangelands in more mesic ecosystems is less responsive to variation in rainfall. We conclude that herbaceous ANPP in most Mediterranean rangelands is less vulnerable to climate change than generally predicted.     

A Hybrid Spectral/Finite-Volume Algorithm for Large-Eddy Simulation of Scalars in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

Pseudospectral methods are frequently used in the horizontal directions in large-eddy simulation of atmospheric flows. However, the same approach often creates unphysical oscillations for scalar fields if there are horizontal heterogeneities in the sources and/or sinks, as is usual in air pollution problems. A hybrid approach is developed to combine the use of pseudospectral representation of the velocity field and bounded finite-volumes for the scalar concentration. An interpolation scheme that yields a divergence-free interpolated velocity field is derived and implemented, and its importance is illustrated by two sample applications.     

An overview of physical and ecological processes in the Rio de la Plata Estuary

The Rio de la Plata is a large-scale estuary located at 35°S on the Atlantic coast of South America. This system is one of the most important estuarine environments in the continent, being a highly productive area that sustains valuable artisanal and coastal fisheries in Uruguay and Argentina. The main goals of this paper are to summarize recent knowledge on this estuary, integrating physical, chemical and biological studies, and to explore the sources and ecological meaning of estuarine variability associated to the stratification/mixing alternateness in the estuary. We summarized unpublished data and information from several bibliographic sources. From study cases representing different stratification conditions, we draw a holistic view of physical patterns and ecological processes of the stratification/mixing alternateness. This estuary is characterized by strong vertical salinity stratification most of the time (the salt-wedge condition). The head of the estuary is characterized by a well-developed turbidity front. High turbidity constrains their photosynthesis. Immediately offshore the turbidity front, water becomes less turbid and phytoplankton peaks. As a consequence, trophic web in the estuary could be based on two sources of organic matter: phytoplankton and plant detritus. Dense plankton aggregations occur below the halocline and at the tip of the salt wedge. The mysid Neomysis americana, a key prey for juvenile fishes, occurs all along the turbidity front. A similar spatial pattern is shown by one of the most abundant benthic species, the clam Mactra isabelleana. These species could be taken advantage of the particulate organic matter and/or phytoplankton concentrated near the front. Nekton is represented by a rich fish community, with several fishes breeding inside the estuary. The most important species in terms of biomass is Micropogonias furnieri, the main target for the coastal fisheries of Argentina and Uruguay. Two processes have been identified as producing partially stratified conditions: persistent moderate winds (synoptic scale), or low freshwater runoff (interannual scale). Less frequently, total mixing of the salt wedge occurs after several hours of strong winds. The co-dominance of diatoms (which proliferate in highly turbulent environments) and red tides dinoflagellates and other bloom taxa (better adapted to stratified conditions), would indicate great variability in the turbulence strength, probably manifested as pulses. Microplankton and ichthyoplankton assemblages defined for the stratified condition are still recognized during the partially mixed condition, but in this case they occupy the entire water column: vertical structure of the plankton featuring the stratified condition become lost. Bottom fish assemblages, on the contrary, shows persistence under the different stratification conditions, though the dominant species of the groups show some variations. Summarizing, the Río de la Plata Estuary is a highly variable environment, strongly stratified most of the time but that can be mixed in some few hours by strong wind events that occur in an unpredictable manner, generating stratification/partially mixed (less frequently totally mixed) pulses all along the year. At larger temporal scales, the system is under the effects of river discharge variations associated to the ENSO cycle, but their ecological consequences are not fully studied.     

How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.     

Water Availability of Sub-Basins with Restrictions on Use under Climate Change Scenarios in Brazil

Water Resources - The Queima Pé Stream Basin (QPSB) and Ararão River Basin (ARB) in central Brazil have had recurrent problems with water scarcity. This may get worse under anthropogenic...