Estimate of the debris-flow entrainment using field and topographical data

The entrainment of material is a common process in debris-flow behaviour and can strongly increase its total volume. However, due to the complex nature of the process, the exact mechanisms of entrainment have not yet been solved. We analysed geomorphological and topographical data collected in 110 reaches of 17 granular debris flows occurred in the Pyrenees and the European Alps. Four governing factors (sediment availability, channel-bed slope, channel cross section shape and upstream-contributing area) were selected and defined for all the 110 reaches. One dataset of the resulting database was used to develop two models to estimate the erosion rates based on the governing factors: a formula derived from multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis and a decision tree (DT) obtained from J48 algorithm. The models obtained using these learning techniques were validated in another independent dataset. In this validation set, the DT model revealed better results. The models were also implemented in a torrent (test set), where the total debris-flow volume was known and two empirical methods (available in literature) were applied. This test revealed that both MLR and DT predict more accurately the final volume of the event than the empirical equations for volume prediction. Finally, a general DT was proposed, which includes three governing factors: sediment availability, channel-bed slope and channel cross section shape. This DT may be applied to other regions after adapting it regarding site-specific characteristics.     

Ground-based mid infra-red observations of nearby starburst and AGN galaxies

We present preliminary results of recent spatially resolved mid infrared (Mid-IR) spectroscopy with the MICHELLE instrument on UKIRT of NGC 7469, observed as part of a larger programme to study a sample of starburst and AGN in the Mid-IR. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Concepts and science for coastal erosion management - An introduction to the Conscience framework

The main objective of the Conscience project was to develop and test concepts, guidelines and tools for the sustainable management of erosion along the European coastline, based on the best available scientific knowledge and on existing practical experience. Four concepts are potentially capable of providing the nexus between scientific knowledge and management: coastal resilience, coastal sediment cell, favourable sediment status and strategic sediment reservoir. The project has tested the use of these concepts and found that they are useful, provided that they are positioned and linked within a logical structure that we shall call the Conscience “Frame of Reference”, defined in time and space and supported through data and monitoring. Practical experience in six coastal sites in Europe has shown that the use of this Frame of Reference together with these concepts can make management objectives explicit and transparent. It can therefore support the design of an appropriate, resilience based coastal erosion management practice.     

Morphodynamic upscaling with the MORFAC approach: Dependencies and sensitivities

The recently developed Morphological Acceleration Factor (MORFAC) approach for morphodynamic upscaling enables numerical model simulations of coastal evolution at decadal to millennial time scales. Primarily due to the massive increase in modeling time scales it affords, the MORFAC approach is now standard in state-of-the-art commercially available coastal morphodynamic modeling suites. However, the general validity of the MORFAC concept for coastal applications has not yet been comprehensively investigated. Furthermore, a robust and objective method (as opposed to the subjective and inelegant trial and error method) for the a priori determination of the highest MORFAC that is suitable for a given simulation (i.e. critical MORFAC) does not currently exist. This communication presents some initial results of an ongoing, long-term study that attempts to rigorously and methodically investigate the limitations and strengths of the MORFAC approach. Based on the results of a strategically designed numerical modeling exercise using the morphodynamic model Delft3D, two main outcomes are presented. First, the main dependencies and sensitivities of the MORFAC approach to fundamental forcing conditions and model parameters are elucidated. Second, a criterion based on the Courant–Friedrichs–Levy (CFL) condition for bed form propagation that maybe used as a guide to determine the critical MORFAC a priori is proposed.     

Modelling floodplain sedimentation using particle tracking

Both climate change and river rehabilitation projects induce changes in floodplain sedimentation. Notably along the lower River Rhine, the sediment deposition patterns and rates are subject to change. To assess the magnitude of these changes, we developed the MoCSED model, a floodplain sedimentation model within a geographical information system for the lower Rhine River. We based MoCSED on the ‘method of characteristics’ (MoC), a particle tracking method that minimizes numerical dispersion. We implemented the MoCSED model in the PCRaster dynamic modelling language. The model input comprises initial suspended sediment concentrations, water levels, flow velocities, and longitudinal and transverse dispersivities. We used a combination of the Krone and Chen concepts to calculate the subsequent sedimentation (SED routine). We compared the model results with sediment trap data for the Bemmel floodplain along the Dutch Waal River during the 2003 inundation. This comparison showed that MoCSED was able to simulate the pattern of sediment deposition. In addition, the model proved to be an improvement in comparison with a conventional raster‐based floodplain sedimentation model for the lower River Rhine. In future, MoCSED may serve well to study the impact of a changing discharge regime due to climate change and floodplain rehabilitation plans on deposition of sediments. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sources of particulate and dissolved organic carbon in the St Lawrence River: isotopic approach

We investigate sources of both dissolved and particulate organic carbon in the St Lawrence River from its source (the Great Lakes outlet) to its estuary, as well as in two of its tributaries. Special attention is given to seasonal interannual patterns by using data collected on a bi‐monthly basis from mid‐1998 to mid‐2003. δ¹³C measurements in dissolved inorganic carbon, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC), as well as molar C : N in particulate organic matter (POM), are used to bring insight into the dynamic between aquatic versus terrigenous sources. In addition, ¹⁴C activities of DOC were measured at the outlet of the St Lawrence River to its estuary to assess a mean age of the DOC exported to the estuary. In the St Lawrence River itself, aquatically produced POC dominates terrestrially derived POC and is depleted in ¹³C by approximately 12‰ versus dissolved CO₂. In the Ottawa River, the St Lawrence River's most important tributary, the present dataset did not allow for convincing deciphering of POC sources. In a small tributary of the St Lawrence River, aquatically produced POC dominates in summer and terrestrially derived POC dominates in winter. DOC seems to be dominated by terrestrially derived organic matter at all sampling sites, with some influence of DOC derived from aquatically produced POC in summer in the St Lawrence River at the outlet of the Great Lakes and in one of its small tributaries. The overall bulk DOC is relatively recent (¹⁴C generally exceeding 100% modern carbon) in the St Lawrence River at its outlet to the estuary, suggesting that it derives mainly from recent organic matter from topsoils in the watershed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.     

A transitioning Arctic surface energy budget: the impacts of solar zenith angle, surface albedo and cloud radiative forcing

Snow surface and sea-ice energy budgets were measured near 87.5°N during the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS), from August to early September 2008. Surface temperature indicated four distinct temperature regimes, characterized by varying cloud, thermodynamic and solar properties. An initial warm, melt-season regime was interrupted by a 3-day cold regime where temperatures dropped from near zero to ?7°C. Subsequently mean energy budget residuals remained small and near zero for 1 week until once again temperatures dropped rapidly and the energy budget residuals became negative. Energy budget transitions were dominated by the net radiative fluxes, largely controlled by the cloudiness. Variable heat, moisture and cloud distributions were associated with changing air-masses. Surface cloud radiative forcing, the net radiative effect of clouds on the surface relative to clear skies, is estimated. Shortwave cloud forcing ranged between ?50 W m^?2 and zero and varied significantly with surface albedo, solar zenith angle and cloud liquid water. Longwave cloud forcing was larger and generally ranged between 65 and 85 W m^?2, except when the cloud fraction was tenuous or contained little liquid water; thus the net effect of the clouds was to warm the surface. Both cold periods occurred under tenuous, or altogether absent, low-level clouds containing little liquid water, effectively reducing the cloud greenhouse effect. Freeze-up progression was enhanced by a combination of increasing solar zenith angles and surface albedo, while inhibited by a large, positive surface cloud forcing until a new air-mass with considerably less cloudiness advected over the experiment area.     

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.