Interprét ation des graphiques de relation entre deux éléments chimiques en solution dans l'eau souterraine

The relationship line between two chemical constituents dissolved in groundwater does not always begin at the graph origin, but at a fixed coordinates point. This allows the separation between rain water, infiltrating water and groundwater. Besides, this relationship line is not always linear. Equations are given for the curvilinear case.     

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.     

Utilization of a multicriteria least cost path model in an aquatic environment

A critical component of maintaining biodiversity in fragmented habitats is maintaining connectivity among the usable fragments. Least cost path (LCP) analysis is a tool that can be used for predicting the ability of an organism to move from one habitat patch to another, based on geographical features of the landscape and life history traits of the organism. While this analysis has been utilized for terrestrial habitats, it is rarely applied to aquatic environments. Aquatic hypoxic conditions occur when dissolved oxygen falls below 2 mg/L. These conditions can create barriers in the water column that can either force fish to leave a habitat, or avoid that habitat altogether. Using the lower St. Johns River (LSJR) estuary in Florida, USA, as a study system, the ability of an adult silver perch, Bairdiella chrysoura, to escape a large-scale hypoxic event was modeled using a multicriteria LCP approach. Criteria-specific cost grids were constructed based upon current speed, risk of predation, and whether oxygen levels in the habitat area were normoxic (>5.5 mg/L), or hypoxic (<2.0–1.5 mg/L) as a function of water depth for the LSJR. The criteria cost grids were combined using relative weighting to produce the multicriteria cost grid used to implement the LCP analysis. Three origin and destination point locations within the LSJR study area were selected for modeling whether or not a silver perch would be able to escape a hypoxic zone. Since the LCP model will always determine a LCP from the specified origin point location, ecologically relevant swimming capacities for silver perch under normoxic and hypoxic conditions were then applied to assess the model, and to determine whether the fish would be able to reach areas unimpacted by hypoxia. The LCP model and the swimming capacity results for this study predict that under normoxic conditions, fish movement was unimpeded. During the rapidly developing hypoxic event that was modeled, the results from the LCP model indicate that the fish could move outside the hypoxic zone, but when swimming capacities were applied to the model, the silver perch could not escape. Ecologically, the results of this study suggest that silver perch would experience high mortality under a rapidly developing hypoxic event. Additionally, the results of this study indicate that a LCP model can be applied to an aquatic habitat, as long as the cost grids incorporate relevant abiotic and biotic factors.     

Estimating economic losses of midrise reinforced concrete shear wall buildings in sedimentary basins by combining empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations

Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the intensity of earthquake ground motions within a period range of approximately 1–4 s, but the economic impacts of basin effects are uncertain. This paper estimates key economic indicators of seismic performance, expressed in terms of earthquake‐induced repair costs, using empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations that account for the effects of basins. The methodology used is general, but the estimates are made for a series of eight‐ to 24‐story residential reinforced concrete shear wall archetype buildings in Seattle, WA, whose design neglects basin effects. All buildings are designed to comply with code‐minimum requirements (i.e., reference archetypes), as well as a series of design enhancements, which include (a) increasing design forces, (b) decreasing drift limits, and (c) a combination of these strategies. As an additional reference point, a performance‐based design is also assessed. The performance of the archetype buildings is evaluated for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (2018 NSHM), which explicitly considers basin effects. Inclusion of basin effects results in an average threefold increase in annualized losses for all archetypes. Incorporating physics‐based ground motion simulations to represent the large‐magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard results in a further increase of 22% relative to the 2018 NSHM. The most effective of the design strategies considered combines a 25% increase in strength with a reduction in drift limits to 1.5%.     

Local isotropy and anisotropy in the sheared and heated atmospheric surface layer

Longitudinal velocity and temperature measurements above a uniform dry lakebed were used to investigate sources of eddy-motion anisotropy within the inertial subrange. Rather than simply test the adequacy of locally isotropic relations, we investigated directly the sources of anisotropy. These sources, in a daytime desert-like climate, include: (1) direct interaction between the large-scale and small-scale eddy motion, and (2) thermal effects on the small-scale eddy motion. In order to explore these two anisotropy sources, we developed statistical measures that are sensitive to such interactions. It was found that the large-scale/small-scale interaction was significant in the inertial subrange up to 3 decades below the production scale, thus reducing the validity of the local isotropy assumption. The anisotropy generated by thermal effects was also significant and comparable in magnitude to the former anisotropy source. However, this thermal anisotropy was opposite in sign and tended to counteract the anisotropy generated by the large-scale/smallscale interaction. The thermal anisotropy was attributed to organized ramp-like patterns in the temperature measurements. The impact of this anisotropy cancellation on the dynamics of inertial subrange eddy motion was also considered. For that purpose, the Kolmogorov-Obukhov structure function equation, as derived from the Navier-Stokes equations for locally isotropic turbulence, was employed. The Kolmogorov-Obukhov structure function equation in conjunction with Obukhov's constant skewness closure hypothesis reproduced the measured second- and third-order structure functions. Obukhov's constant skewness closure scheme, which is also based on the local isotropy assumption, was verified and was found to be in good agreement with the measurements. The accepted 0.4 constant skewness value derived from grid turbulence experiments overestimated our measurements. A suggested 0.26 constant skewness value, which we derived from Kolmogorov's constant, was found to be adequate.     

Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.     

Li and B isotopic variations in an Allende CAI: Evidence for the in situ decay of short-lived Be and for the possible presence of the short-lived nuclide Be in the early solar system

The concentrations and isotopic compositions of lithium, beryllium, and boron, analyzed in situ by ion microprobe in 66 spots of a type B1 Ca-Al-rich inclusion (CAI 3529-41) from the Allende meteorite, are reported. Large variations are observed for both the Li and the B isotopic ratios with ⁷Li/⁶Li ranging from 9.2 ± 0.22 to 12.22 ± 0.43 (a ≈250‰ range in δ⁷Li values) and ¹⁰B/¹¹B ranging from 0.2468 ± 0.0057 to 0.4189 ± 0.0493 (a 410‰ range in δ¹¹B values). The very low Li concentrations (<1 ppb) observed in several anorthite and fassaite grains require that a correction for the contribution of spallogenic Li produced during irradiation of the Allende meteoroid by galactic cosmic rays (GCR) be made (after this correction ⁷Li/⁶Li ranges from 9.2 ± 0.22 to 13.44 ± 0.56, i.e., a ≈350‰ range in δ⁷Li values). In 3529-41, the ¹⁰B/¹¹B ratios are positively correlated with ⁹Be/¹¹B in a manner indicating the in situ decay of short-lived ¹⁰Be (half-life = 1.5 Ma) with a ¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratio at the time of formation of the CAI of 8.8 ± 0.6 × 10⁻⁴, which is in agreement with previous findings [McKeegan, K.D., Chaussidon, M., Robert, F., 2000. Incorporation of short-lived ¹⁰Be in a calcium-aluminum-rich inclusion from the Allende meteorite. Science289, 1334-1337]. The present detailed investigation demonstrates that only minor perturbations of the ¹⁰Be-¹⁰B system are present in 3529-41, contrary to the ²⁶Al/²⁶Mg system for which numerous examples of isotopic redistribution following crystallization were observed [Podosek, F.A., Zinner, E.K., MacPherson, G.J., Lundberg, L.L., Brannon, J.C., Fahey, A.J., 1991. Correlated study of initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and Al-Mg systematics and petrologic properties in a suite of refractory inclusions from the Allende meteorite. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta55, 1083-1110]. Petrographically based criteria were developed to identify within the 66 analyzed spots in 3529-41, those where post-magmatic perturbation of the Li and Be distributions occurred. Li and Be concentrations measured in different analytical spots are compared with those predicted by using experimentally determined partition coefficients according to a model of closed-system crystallization of the CAI melt. These criteria show that 56% of the spots in melilite, 38% in anorthite, and 8% in fassaite suffered post-crystallization perturbations of Li and/or Be distributions. In the remaining spots, which do not show obvious indication of redistribution of Li or Be, the ⁷Li/⁶Li isotopic variations (corrected for GCR exposure) are positively correlated with⁹Be/⁶Li suggesting the in situ decay of now-extinct ⁷Be. The derived isochron implies that at the time of its formation, the CAI melt had a ⁷Be/⁹Be ratio of 0.0061 ± 0.0013 and a ⁷Li/⁶Li ratio of 11.49 ± 0.13. In contrast, all the spots in 3529-41, which do show evidence for post-magmatic redistribution of Li and Be, have relatively constant ⁷Li/⁶Li, averaging 11.72 ± 0.56, which is consistent with mass balance calculations for Li isotopic homogenization in the CAI after the decay of ⁷Be. The incorporation of live ⁷Be in 3529-41 requires, because of the very short half-life of this nuclide (53 days), that it be produced essentially contemporaneously with the formation of the CAI. Therefore, the irradiation processes responsible for production of ⁷Be must have occurred within the solar accretion disk. Calculations developed in the framework of the x-wind model [Gounelle, M., Shu, F.H., Shang, H., Glassgold, A.E., Rehm, E.K., Lee, T., 2004. The origin of short-lived radionuclides and early Solar System irradiation (abstract). Lunar Planet. Sci.35, 1829] reproduce the ⁷Be and ¹⁰Be abundances observed in 3529-41. The correlated presence of ⁷Be and ¹⁰Be in 3529-41 is thus a strong argument that ¹⁰Be, which is observed rather ubiquitously in CAIs, is also a product of irradiation in the early solar system, as might be a significant fraction of other short-lived radionuclides observed in early solar system materials.