Variogram Model Selection via Nonparametric Derivative Estimation

Before optimal linear prediction can be performed on spatial data sets, the variogram is usually estimated at various lags and a parametric model is fitted to those estimates. Apart from possible a priori knowledge about the process and the user's subjectivity, there is no standard methodology for choosing among valid variogram models like the spherical or the exponential ones. This paper discusses the nonparametric estimation of the variogram and its derivative, based on the spectral representation of positive definite functions. The use of the estimated derivative to help choose among valid parametric variogram models is presented. Once a model is selected, its parameters can be estimated—for example, by generalized least squares. A small simulation study is performed that demonstrates the usefulness of estimating the derivative to help model selection and illustrates the issue of aliasing. MATLAB software for nonparametric variogram derivative estimation is available at http://www-math.mit.edu/~gorsich/derivative.html. An application to the Walker Lake data set is also presented.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Impact of soil and water conservation measures on catchment hydrological response—a case in north Ethiopia

Impact studies of catchment management in the developing world rarely include detailed hydrological components. Here, changes in the hydrological response of a 200‐ha catchment in north Ethiopia are investigated. The management included various soil and water conservation measures such as the construction of dry masonry stone bunds and check dams, the abandonment of post‐harvest grazing, and the establishment of woody vegetation. Measurements at the catchment outlet indicated a runoff depth of 5 mm or a runoff coefficient (RC) of 1·6% in the rainy season of 2006. Combined with runoff measurements at plot scale, this allowed calculating the runoff curve number (CN) for various land uses and land management techniques. The pre‐implementation runoff depth was then predicted using the CN values and a ponding adjustment factor, representing the abstraction of runoff induced by the 242 check dams in gullies. Using the 2006 rainfall depths, the runoff depth for the 2000 land management situation was predicted to be 26·5 mm (RC = 8%), in line with current RCs of nearby catchments. Monitoring of the ground water level indicated a rise after catchment management. The yearly rise in water table after the onset of the rains (ΔT) relative to the water surplus (WS) over the same period increased between 2002–2003 (ΔT/WS = 3·4) and 2006 (ΔT/WS >11·1). Emerging wells and irrigation are other indicators for improved water supply in the managed catchment. Cropped fields in the gullies indicate that farmers are less frightened for the destructive effects of flash floods. Due to increased soil water content, the crop growing period is prolonged. It can be concluded that this catchment management has resulted in a higher infiltration rate and a reduction of direct runoff volume by 81% which has had a positive influence on the catchment water balance. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Muscovite dehydration melting: Reaction mechanisms,microstructures, and implications for anatexis

Dehydration melting of muscovite in metasedimentary sequences is the initially dominant mechanism of granitic melt generation in orogenic hinterlands. In dry (vapour-absent) crust, muscovite reacts with quartz to produce K-feldspar, sillimanite, and monzogranitic melt. When water vapour is present in excess, sillimanite and melt are the primary products of muscovite breakdown, and any K-feldspar produced is due to melt crystallization. Here we document the reaction mechanisms that control nucleation and growth of K-feldspar, sillimanite, and silicate melt in the metamorphic core of the Himalaya, and outline the microstructural criteria used to distinguish peritectic K-feldspar from K-feldspar grains formed during melt crystallization. We have characterized four stages of microstructural evolution in selected psammitic and pelitic samples from the Langtang and Everest regions: (a) K-feldspar nucleates epitaxially on plagioclase while intergrowths of fibrolitic sillimanite and the remaining hydrous melt components replace muscovite. (b) In quartzofeldspathic domains, K-feldspar replaces plagioclase by K⁺–Na⁺ cation exchange, while melt and intergrowths of sillimanite+quartz form in the aluminous domains. (c) At 7–8 vol.% melt generation, the system evolves from a closed to open system and all phases coarsen by up to two orders of magnitude, resulting in large K-feldspar porphyroblasts. (d) Preferential crystallization of residual melt on K-feldspar porphyroblasts and coarsened quartz forms an augen gneiss texture with a monzogranitic-tonalitic matrix that contains intergrowths of sillimanite+tourmaline+muscovite+apatite. Initial poikiloblasts of peritectic K-feldspar trap fine-grained inclusions of quartz and biotite by replacement growth of matrix plagioclase. During subsequent coarsening, peritectic K-feldspar grains overgrow and trap fabric-aligned biotite, resulting in a core to rim coarsening of inclusion size. These microstructural criteria enable a mass balance of peritectic K-feldspar and sillimanite to constrain the amount of free H₂O present during muscovite dehydration. The resulting modal proportion of K-feldspar in the Himalayan metamorphic core requires vapour-absent conditions during muscovite dehydration melting and leucogranite formation, indicating that the generation of large volumes of granitic melts in orogenic belts is not necessarily contingent on an external source of fluids.     

Near-Surface Flow Fields Deduced Using Correlation Tracking and Time-Distance Analyses

Near-photospheric flow fields on the Sun are deduced using two independent methods applied to the same time series of velocity images observed by SOI-MDI on SOHO. Differences in travel times between f modes entering and leaving each pixel measured using time-distance helioseismology are used to determine sites of supergranular outflows. Alternatively, correlation tracking analysis of mesogranular scales of motion applied to the same time series is used to deduce the near-surface flow field. These two approaches provide the means to assess the patterns and evolution of horizontal flows on supergranular scales even near disk center, which is not feasible with direct line-of-sight Doppler measurements. We find that the locations of the supergranular outflows seen in flow fields generated from correlation tracking coincide well with the locations of the outflows determined from the time-distance analysis, with a mean correlation coefficient after smoothing of _s=0.890. Near-surface velocity field measurements can be used to study the evolution of the supergranular network, as merging and splitting events are observed to occur in these images. The data consist of one 2048-min time series of high-resolution (0.6 pixels) line-of-sight velocity images taken by MDI on 1997 January 16–18 at a cadence of one minute.     

Man-induced hydrological changes, metazooplankton communities and invasive species in the Berre Lagoon (Mediterranean Sea, France)

The Berre Lagoon has been under strong anthropogenic pressure since the early 1950s. The opening of the hydroelectric EDF power plant in 1966 led to large salinity drops. The zooplankton community was mainly composed of two common brackish species: Acartia tonsa and Brachionus plicatilis. Since 2006, European litigation has strongly constrained the input of freshwater, maintaining the salinity above 15. A study was performed between 2008 and 2010 to evaluate how these modifications have impacted the zooplankton community. Our results show that the community is more diverse and contains several coastal marine species (i.e., Centropages typicus, Paracalanus parvus and Acartia clausi). A. tonsa is still present but is less abundant, whereas B. plicatilis has completely disappeared. Strong predatory marine species, such as chaetognaths, the large conspicuous autochtonous jellyfish Aurelia aurita and the invasive ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi, are now very common as either seasonal or permanent features of the lagoon.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.     

Importance of the oxidation/maturation pair in the evolution of humic coals

The natural thermal evolution of type III coals (Humic origin) is expressed during diagenesis by a loss of oxygen as CO₂ and H₂O. Other phenomena such as oxidation can cause extensive geochemical modifications and may complicate the effects of simple maturation.Humic coals from the Jurassic in southeastern Utah were studied by elemental analysis, Rock-Eval pyrolysis and infrared spectroscopy. In a van Krevelen diagram (atomic H/C vs atomic O/C), the samples fall within the envelope defined by 860 reference humic coals covering the entire range of diagenesis. Nevertheless, various criteria (geochemical, petrographic, geological and microscopic) cast doubt upon the interpretation that such a distribution of coal composition results from thermal maturation.The same criteria indicate the intervention of redox phenomena. Comparison of our results with those from artificial and natural oxidation shows that these coals were subjected to an oxidation process different from ordinary late alteration. This process was probably due to circulation of highly oxidizing saline water causing oxygen fixation and the transformation of carboxyls into carboxylate anions. The cations that were fixed are oxygenated and certainly contain calcium, but also uranium and perhaps several other cations (V, Mo, Fe...). Emphasis is placed on possible mechanisms that cause such phenomena.