Space Weather: Physics,Effects and Predictability

The time varying conditions in the near-Earth space environment that may affect space-borne or ground-based technological systems and may endanger human health or life are referred to as space weather. Space weather effects arise from the dynamic and highly variable conditions in the geospace environment starting from explosive events on the Sun (solar flares), Coronal Mass Ejections near the Sun in the interplanetary medium, and various energetic effects in the magnetosphere–ionosphere–atmosphere system. As the utilization of space has become part of our everyday lives, and as our lives have become increasingly dependent on technological systems vulnerable to the space weather influences, the understanding and prediction of hazards posed by these active solar events have grown in importance. In this paper, we review the processes of the Sun–Earth interactions, the dynamic conditions within the magnetosphere, and the predictability of space weather effects on radio waves, satellites and ground-based technological systems today.     

Deep inside a neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc: growth,differentiation and exhumation of the Amalaoulaou complex (Gourma,Mali)

We show here that the Amalaoulaou complex, in the Pan-African belt of West Africa (Gourma, Mali), corresponds to the lower and middle sections of a Neoproterozoic intra-oceanic arc. This complex records a 90–130-Ma-long evolution of magmatic inputs and differentiation above a subducting oceanic slab. Early c. 793 Ma-old metagabbros crystallised at lower crustal or uppermost mantle depths (25–30 km) and have geochemical characteristic of high-alumina basalts extracted from a depleted mantle source slightly enriched by slab-derived sedimentary components ((La/Sm)_N < 1; ε_Nd: +5.4–6.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7027–0.7029). In response to crustal thickening, these mafic rocks were recrystallised into garnet-granulites (850–1,000°C; 10–12 kbar) and subject to local dehydration–melting reactions, forming trondhjemititic leucosomes with garnet–clinopyroxene–rutile residues. Slightly after the granulitic event, the arc root was subject to strong HT shearing during partial exhumation (detachment faults/rifting or thrusting), coeval with the emplacement of spinel- and garnet-pyroxenite dykes crystallised from a high-Mg andesitic parental magma. Quartz and hornblende-gabbros (700–660 Ma) with composition typical of hydrous volcanic rocks from mature arcs ((La/Sm)_N: 0.9–1.8; ε_Nd: +4.6 to +5.2; ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr: 0.7028–0.7031) were subsequently emplaced at mid-arc crust levels (~15 km). Trace element and isotopic data indicate that magmas tapped a depleted mantle source significantly more enriched in oceanic sedimentary components (0.2%). Exhumation occurred either in two stages (700–660 and 623 Ma) or in one stage (623 Ma) with a final exhumation of the arc root along cold P-T path (550°C, 6–9 kbar; epidote–amphibolite and greenschist facies conditions) during the main Pan-African collision event (620–580 Ma). The composition of magmas forming the Cryogenian Amalaoulaou arc and the processes leading to intra-arc differentiation are strikingly comparable to those observed in the deep section of exposed Mezosoic oceanic arcs, namely the Kohistan and Talkeetna complex. This evolution of the Amalaoulaou oceanic arc and its accretion towards the West African craton belong to the life and closure of the Pharusian Ocean that eventually led to the formation of the Greater Gondwana supercontinent, a similar story having occurred on the other side of the Sahara with the Mozambique Ocean.     

Variation in Coronal Activity from Solar Cycle 24 Minimum to Maximum Using Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Coronal Electron Density from STEREO/COR1

Three-dimensional electron density distributions in the solar corona are reconstructed for 100 Carrington rotations (CR 2054?–?2153) during 2007/03?–?2014/08 using the spherically symmetric method from polarized white-light observations with the inner coronagraph (COR1) onboard the twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). These three-dimensional electron density distributions are validated by comparison with similar density models derived using other methods such as tomography and a magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as using data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)-C2. Uncertainties in the estimated total mass of the global corona are analyzed based on differences between the density distributions for COR1-A and -B. Long-term variations of coronal activity in terms of the global and hemispheric average electron densities (equivalent to the total coronal mass) reveal a hemispheric asymmetry during the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24, with the northern hemisphere leading the southern hemisphere by a phase shift of 7?–?9 months. Using 14 CR (\(\approx13\)-month) running averages, the amplitudes of the variation in average electron density between Cycle 24 maximum and Cycle 23/24 minimum (called the modulation factors) are found to be in the range of 1.6?–?4.3. These modulation factors are latitudinally dependent, being largest in polar regions and smallest in the equatorial region. These modulation factors also show a hemispheric asymmetry: they are somewhat larger in the southern hemisphere. The wavelet analysis shows that the short-term quasi-periodic oscillations during the rising and maximum phases of Cycle 24 have a dominant period of 7?–?8 months. In addition, it is found that the radial distribution of the mean electron density for streamers at Cycle 24 maximum is only slightly larger (by \(\approx30\%\)) than at cycle minimum.     

Efficient collection of training data for sub-pixel land cover classification using neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a popular class of techniques for performing soft classifications of satellite images. They have successfully been applied for estimating crop areas through sub-pixel classification of medium to low resolution images. Before a network can be used for classification and estimation, however, it has to be trained. The collection of the reference area fractions needed to train an ANN is often both time-consuming and expensive. This study focuses on strategies for decreasing the efforts needed to collect the necessary reference data, without compromising the accuracy of the resulting area estimates. Two aspects were studied: the spatial sampling scheme (i) and the possibility for reusing trained networks in multiple consecutive seasons (ii). Belgium was chosen as the study area because of the vast amount of reference data available. Time series of monthly NDVI composites for both SPOT-VGT and MODIS were used as the network inputs. The results showed that accurate regional crop area estimation (R² > 80%) is possible using only 1% of the entire area for network training, provided that the training samples used are representative for the land use variability present in the study area. Limiting the training samples to a specific subset of the population, either geographically or thematically, significantly decreased the accuracy of the estimates. The results also indicate that the use of ANNs trained with data from one season to estimate area fractions in another season is not to be recommended. The interannual variability observed in the endmembers’ spectral signatures underlines the importance of using up-to-date training samples. It can thus be concluded that the representativeness of the training samples, both regarding the spatial and the temporal aspects, is an important issue in crop area estimation using ANNs that should not easily be ignored.     

Classifying zones of suitability for manual drilling using textural and hydraulic parameters of shallow aquifers: a case study in northwestern Senegal

A method is proposed that uses analysis of borehole stratigraphic logs for the characterization of shallow aquifers and for the assessment of areas suitable for manual drilling. The model is based on available borehole-log parameters: depth to hard rock, depth to water, thickness of laterite and hydraulic transmissivity of the shallow aquifer. The model is applied to a study area in northwestern Senegal. A dataset of boreholes logs has been processed using a software package (TANGAFRIC) developed during the research. After a manual procedure to assign a standard category describing the lithological characteristics, the next step is the automated extraction of different textural parameters and the estimation of hydraulic conductivity using reference values available in the literature. The hydraulic conductivity values estimated from stratigraphic data have been partially validated, by comparing them with measured values from a series of pumping tests carried out in large-diameter wells. The results show that this method is able to produce a reliable interpretation of the shallow hydrogeological context using information generally available in the region. The research contributes to improving the identification of areas where conditions are suitable for manual drilling. This is achieved by applying the described method, based on a structured and semi-quantitative approach, to classify the zones of suitability for given manual drilling techniques using data available in most African countries. Ultimately, this work will support proposed international programs aimed at promoting low-cost water supply in Africa and enhancing access to safe drinking water for the population.     

Distribution of Indus born mica along Gulf of Kachchh coast: Implications in understanding current dynamics

Indus is one of the major sources of sediments to the Gulf of Kachchh. Yet only its <63 micron fraction is studied in detail with regards to the offshore current dynamics. Hence here we present our study on characteristic signature of the Indus sediment load (i.e. mica minerals) in >63 micron size fraction along the coast of Gulf of Kachchh. The spatial distribution of mica minerals along the Gulf of Kachchh coast was studied which showed in general decreasing trend as we move along the northern and southern coast of the Gulf of Kachchh but, an increase in amount near the southern mouth at Okha. The study shows that the earlier proposed tidal barrier is ineffective in restricting movement of mica across the mouth of the gulf due to its characteristic transport mechanism. Also the presence of mudflats along the gulf of Kachchh coast plays a vital role as sediment receptors in the active sediment transport processes and mica minerals prove to be a promising simple tracer in studying the Indus born sediments in the region.     

Can Plant Competition and Diversity Reduce the Growth and Survival of Exotic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Phragmites australis</Emphasis> Invading a Tidal Marsh?

The rapid proliferation of Phragmites australis in North America has challenged resource managers to curb its expansion and reduce the loss of functional tidal marsh. We investigated whether native plant competition could reduce the ability of Phragmites to invade a tidal marsh, and if plant diversity (species richness, evenness, and composition) altered the competitive outcome. Immature Phragmites shoots and four native halophytes were transplanted to small but dense field plots (~1,200 shoots m⁻²) comprising three community structure types (Phragmites alone, Phragmites + 1 native species, and Phragmites + 4 native species). Interspecific competition significantly reduced Phragmites aboveground biomass, shoot length production, density, and survival by approximately 60%. Additionally, plots planted with greater native diversity contained Phragmites with the lowest growth and survival, potentially indicating diversity-enhanced resource competition. Competition consistently reduced the growth of Phragmites even under favorable conditions: lack of strong tidal flooding stresses as well as elevated nutrient pools.     

Experimental Investigation of Turbulent Momentum Transfer in a Neutral Boundary Layer over a Rough Surface

The turbulent characteristics of the neutral boundary layer developing over rough surfaces are not well predicted with operational weather-forecasting models. The problem is attributed to inadequate mixing-length models, to the anisotropy of the flow and to a lack of controlled experimental data against which to validate numerical studies. Therefore, in order to address directly the modelling difficulties for the development of a neutral boundary layer over rough surfaces, and to investigate the turbulent momentum transfer of such a layer, a set of hydraulic flume experiments were carried out. In the experiments, the mean and turbulent quantities were measured by a particle image velocimetry (PIV) technique. The measured velocity variances and fluxes \({(\overline{{u_{i}^{\prime}}{u_{j}^{\prime}}})}\) in longitudinal vertical planes allowed the vertical and longitudinal gradients (?/?z and ?/?x) of the mean and turbulent quantities (fluxes, variances and third-order moments) to be evaluated and the terms of the evolution equations for ?e/?t, \({\partial \overline{u^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\), \({\partial \overline{w^{\prime 2}}/\partial t}\) and \({\partial \overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}/\partial t}\) to be quantified, where e is the turbulent kinetic energy. The results show that the pressure-correlation terms allow the turbulent energy to be transferred equitably from \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) to \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\). It appears that the repartition between the constitutive terms of the budget of e, \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}^{2}}}\), \({\overline{{w^{\prime}}^{2}}}\) and \({\overline{{u^{\prime}}{w^{\prime}}}}\) is not significantly affected by the development of the rough neutral boundary layer. For the whole evolution, the transfers of energy are governed by the same terms that are also very similar to the smooth-wall case. The PIV measurements also allowed the spatial integral scales to be computed directly and to be compared with the dissipative and mixing length scales, which were also computed from the data.     

Evidence for the occurrence of hydrogeochemical processes in the groundwater of Khoy plain,northwestern Iran,using ionic ratios and geochemical modeling

Rapid population growth, industrialization, and agricultural expansion in the Khoy area (northwestern Iran) have led to its dependence on groundwater and degradation of groundwater quality. This study attempts to decipher the major processes and factors that degrade the groundwater quality of the Khoy plain. For this purpose, 54 groundwater samples from unconfined and confined aquifers of the plain were collected in July 2017 and analyzed for major cations and anions (Na, K, Ca, Mg, HCO₃, SO_4, and Cl), minor ions (NO₃ and F), and Al. Magnesium and bicarbonate were identified as the dominant cation and anion, respectively. Several ionic ratios and geochemical modeling using PHREEQC indicated that the most important hydrogeochemical processes to affect groundwater quality in the plain were weathering and dissolution of evaporitic and silicate minerals, mixing, and ion exchange. There were smaller effects from evaporation and anthropogenic factors (e.g., industries). Results showed that the high salinity of the groundwater in the northeast area of the plain was due to the high solubility of the evaporitic minerals, e.g., halite and gypsum. Reverse ion exchange and the contribution of mineral dissolution were more significant than ion exchange in the northeastern part of the plain. Elevated salinity of the groundwater in the southeast was attributed mostly to reverse ion exchange and somewhat to evaporation.