Multifractal analysis as a tool for validating a rainfall model

A multifractal analysis was carried out in order to validate the simulation of hourly rainfall records of a local climate model for the Iberian Peninsula. Observed and simulated hourly rainfall data from four locations in Andalusia (southern Spain) were used to carry out the study. In order to detect the influence of the length of the data series on the results, two different sizes were used for the real data: 4 years, and 20 years. The results show that algebraic tails are required to fit the probability distribution of extreme rain event sizes, and rain and dry event durations for both kinds of rainfall data. Similar results are found for the extreme rain event sizes and dry event durations fits when the real and synthetic data are considered. Nevertheless, some differences appear in the cases of rain event durations. The detection of the presence of a first‐order multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moment scaling exponent function and the results of the extreme rain event sizes fits, reveal that real rainfall is a self‐organized criticality (SOC) process. That behaviour is less evident in the simulated rainfall series. The same ‘synoptic maximum’ value was found for each place with both types of rainfall data. A time clustering analysis was carried out applying the count‐based periodogram and the Fano factor methods. Some periodicities have been detected in the periodograms, especially for the longest real rainfall data series. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of negative hydraulic barriers to prevent seawater intrusion

Negative hydraulic barriers that intercept inflowing saltwater by pumping near the coast have been proposed as a corrective measure for seawater intrusion in cases where low heads must be maintained. The main disadvantage of these barriers is that they pump a significant proportion of freshwater, leading to contamination with saltwater at the well. To minimize such mixing, a double pumping barrier system with two extraction wells is proposed: an inland well to pump freshwater and a seawards well to pump saltwater. A three-dimensional variable density flow model is used to study the dynamics of the system. The system performs very efficiently as a remediation option in the early stages. Long-term performance requires a well-balanced design. If the pumping rate is high, drawdowns cause saltwater to flow along the aquifer bottom around the seawater well, contaminating the freshwater well. A low pumping rate at the seawards well leads to insufficient desalinization at the freshwater well. A critical pumping rate at the seawater well is defined as that which produces optimal desalinization at the freshwater well. Empirical expressions for the critical pumping rate and salt mass fraction are proposed. Although pumping with partially penetrating wells improves efficiency, the critical pumping rates remain unchanged.     

Technical, financial and location criteria for the design of land application system treatment

Conventional water treatments when downsized to cover the demands of small and scattered populations are costly and ineffective. In fact, many small towns cannot afford the high average treatment costs nor provide the skill and complex management requirements. Even when these facilities are available, waste water might not be properly treated. Land application system treatments (LAST) have been shown to be preferable on the basis of their technical effectiveness and financial viability. The recently approved Spanish regulations (RDL 1620/2007, pp 50369–50661) represent an opportunity for the implementation of well-designed LASTs. This paper presents an assessment methodology for the design of LASTs by combining technical, financial and location criteria. The method is applied to the design of LASTs to cover the water disposal demand of twelve municipalities located within the protected natural landscape, and surrounding areas of ‘El Rebollar’, Salamanca, Spain.     

Testing the consistency of the Starburst scenario for active galactic nuclei

In the frame of the Starburst Model, we show that the evolution of a massive stellar cluster in a high metallicity environment can reproduce the observed emission-line spectrum and the UV-optical Spectral Energy Distribution of the Seyfert 2 galaxies and LINERs. We apply the results of our models to three objects: NGC 5506, NGC 5643 and Mk 348.     

Coherent structure dynamics and sediment particle motion around a cylindrical pier in developing scour holes

Recent investigations on the dynamics of the turbulent horseshoe vortex system (THV) around cylindrical piers have shown that the rich coherent dynamics of the vortical structures is dominated by low-frequency bimodal fluctuations of the velocity field. In spite of these advances, many questions remain regarding the changes of the flow and sediment transport dynamics as scour progresses. In this investigation we carry out laboratory experiments to register the development of the scour hole around a cylindrical pier in a fine-sand bed (d ₅₀ = 0.36 mm). We use the bathymetry measured in the experiment to simulate the flow field employing the detached-eddy simulation approach (DES), which has shown to resolve most of the turbulent stresses around surface-mounted obstacles. From these simulations we compare the dynamics of the THV to the flat-bed case, and analyze the effects on particle transport and sediment flux using the Lagrangian particle model of Escauriaza and Sotiropoulos (2011b) to study the impact of the changes of the flow on the sediment dynamics.     

The Beach Crowding Index: A Tool for Assessing Social Carrying Capacity of Vulnerable Beaches

The aim of this article is to introduce the Beach Crowding Index (BCI), a procedure to assess the social carrying capacity of vulnerable beaches. The study uses the people at one time (PAOT) approach and data gathered weekly throughout the bathing season regarding the number of beachgoers in 100 m² cells of the beach to assess how many beachgoers it can comfortably hold. The procedure is based on fieldwork, interviews with beachgoers, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis and has been tested on four beaches in protected areas on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. On a scale from 0 to 4, minimum scores throughout the bathing season are 0.7 and maximum 3.7, although results showed wide variation between the beaches, the section of the beach, and the time of day. This study suggests that determining the location of beachgoers and collecting a long-term series of data is fundamental to assessing social carrying capacity and that the BCI procedure can be used for a large number of applications.     

Apophis: the Story Behind the Scenes

On December 20, 2004 the Minor Planet Center issued the Minor Planet Electronic Circular (MPEC) 2004-Y25 announcing the discovery of a new Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) with designation 2004 MN₄. Only two days later, when the Christmas holidays were about to begin, it was already apparent that this asteroid, currently known as Apophis, would be notorious: our close-approach monitoring system, CLOMON2, was already showing a Virtual Impactor (VI) in 2029 reaching the level 2 in the Torino Scale, the first asteroid to reach that level since our monitoring system had been operational. However, this was just the beginning of what it was to come in the subsequent days. In this paper we will give an overview of the NEODyS-CLOMON2 system and provide the details on how Apophis’ collision scenario evolved, the way NEODyS’ team handled it and the crazy 2004’ Christmas holidays we had due to this unexpected guest.     

Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate

We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer. Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study.     

Clues to Substellar Formation: Rotation and the Low-Mass End of the Initial Mass Function

We have monitored S Ori 45, a young, low-mass (20 M _j up) brown dwarf of the σ Orionis cluster (～3 Myr, 352 pc), using optical and near-infrared filters. S Ori 45 (spectral type M8.5) is found to be multi-periodic with a dominant modulation at 2.5–3.5 h, and a short modulation at about 46 min. We ascribe the longer of these modulations to a rotation period. After comparing these results with observations of more massive cluster brown dwarfs and field brown dwarfs, we conclude that substellar objects present rotational and angular momentum evolution. We have also obtained intermediate-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of S Ori 70, which is a T-class, free-floating planetary candidate member in the σ Orionis cluster. Its observed spectrum has been compared to data of field brown dwarfs of similar types and to theoretical spectra computed for different surface temperatures and gravities. We conclude that S Ori 70 has a significantly cool, low-gravity atmosphere. This supports the young age of this object and its membership in the cluster. From state-of-the-art evolutionary models, the mass of S Ori 70 is estimated at 3 times the Jovian mass (⁺⁵ _?2 M _j up), challenging current stellar/substellar formation models. S Ori 70 remains the lowest mass object so far identified in any open cluster.