深圳市地质灾害评价与预警系统研究

深圳市从1980年设立特区以来,目前已从一个边陲小镇发展成为一个拥有400万人口的现代化城市。然而,大规模的城市建设破坏了原本脆弱的地质环境,引发了众多的地质灾害。本文首先阐述了地质灾害评价与预警流程,包括数据预处理、建立模型库、危险性区划、划分预警片区、获取气象和水文临界判据、预警结果制图输出和发布6个步骤;然后给出了地质灾害评价指标体系,分析了地质灾害评价与预警模型;最后设计了深圳市地质灾害评价与预警系统的总体结构,描述了各个子系统的功能,说明了系统运行网络拓扑结构。     

煤和瓦斯突出的动态预测

以阳泉矿区某矿71404工作面的突出事件为例,利用疏系数自回归预报的动态数据处理方法对该工作面突出的具体时间的时间序列进行了分析处理。实例证明,该方法行之有效,预测精度高,它为研究煤和瓦斯突出并进行有效预测预报探索出了一条新的途径。     

大兴安岭地区新仙女木事件的表现特征

新仙女木事件是末次冰消期期间发生的一次气候转冷事件,该事件对整个北半球的中高纬度地区的气候变化有明显的影响。然而,在该事件造成东亚中高纬地区温度下降的统一认识下,对于其季节性特征仍较为缺乏认识。本文用大兴安岭中部月亮湖末次冰消期多指标记录,揭示了大兴安岭地区在新仙女木事件期间植被中的北方针叶林成分增加、森林发育、冬季温度下降、东亚冬季风明显增强。

     

A comparative study on the dominant factors responsible for the weaker-than-expected El Niño event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme El Niño event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted El Niño event. Based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of El Niño events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts (WWBs) with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of El Niño was suspended in summer 2014.     

开发贡嘎山南坡田湾河生态旅游的构思

贡嘎山南麓田湾河风光旖旎，环境仍然保持着天然“本底”。本文根据田湾河开发生态旅游的基础条件，提出了开发山地生态旅游的构思和措施。     

玉龙雪山白水1号冰川近地层气象要素变化特征

利用2011年10月1日至2012年9月30日玉龙雪山白水1号冰川海拔4 500 m气象观测资料,对位于我国最南、亚欧大陆距赤道最近的海洋型冰川区近地层气象要素基本特征进行了分析,并与同海拔大陆型冰川——祁连山老虎沟12号冰川区近地层气象要素进行了对比。研究表明：海洋型与大陆型冰川区气温逐时变化呈单峰单谷型分布,均表现出升温快降温慢的特点,观测点5 m层气温高于2 m层气温,二者差值日变化呈单峰型,峰值出现在北京时间12：00;受季风气候影响,研究区干季相对湿度小,湿季相对湿度大,年均相对湿度为73.3%,与相对湿度相比,研究区水汽压变化更受控于气温;两冰川区冬半年气压低,夏半年气压高,均表现为典型的"高山型"气压;受冰川"冷效应"影响研究区干季风速大,湿季风速小,因冰川规模较小,研究区冰川风不发达,谷风发育强劲;受季风期云雨影响,白水1号冰川区总辐射在季风前期达到最大值,季风期达到极小值,年均总辐射量低于老虎沟12号冰川同海拔地区。     

数码摄影数字化裱版清绘原图的探讨

本文详细地介绍了利用专业数码相机摄影数字化输入裱版清绘原图数据的方法,是目前地理信息系统数字化建设中地图制图资料数据收集、转换的一种新方式,具有较强的实用性。     

考虑线状环境因子适宜性和不同机器学习模型的滑坡易发性预测建模规律

对于滑坡易发性预测中的水系、公路和断层等线状环境因子,现有研究大多采用缓冲分析提取距离线状因子的距离.但缓冲分析得到的线距离属于离散型变量,带有大小不等的随机波动性且对点或线要素的误差较为敏感,导致滑坡易发性建模精度下降.提出了使用水系和公路的空间密度等连续型变量改进线状环境因子的适宜性.以江西省安远县为例,选取高程、...     

Bed material transport estimate in large gravel‐bed rivers using the virtual velocity approach

This paper reports on a first attempt of using the virtual velocity approach to assess sediment mobility and transport in two wide and complex gravel‐bed rivers of northern Italy. Displacement length and virtual velocity of spray‐painted tracers were measured in the field. Also, the thickness of the sediment active layer during floods was measured using scour chains and post‐flood morphological changes as documented by repeated survey of channel cross‐sections. The effects of eight and seven floods were studied on the Tagliamento and Brenta Rivers, where 259 and 277 spray‐painted areas were surveyed, respectively. In the Tagliamento River 36% of the spray‐painted areas experienced partial transport, whereas in the Brenta River this accounted for 20%. Whereas, full removal/gravel deposition was observed on 37% and 26% of these areas on the Tagliamento and Brenta Rivers, respectively. The mean displacement length of particles, the thickness of the active layer and the extent of partial transport are well correlated with the dimensionless shear stress. The virtual velocity approach allowed calculation of bed material transport over a wide range of flood magnitudes. Annual coarse sediment transport was calculated up to 150 for the Tagliamento, and 30 × 10³  m³ yr^?1 for the Brenta. The outcomes of this work highlight the relevance of partial transport condition, as it could represent more than 70% of the total bed material transported during low‐magnitude floods, and up to 40% for near‐bankfull events. Results confirm that bed material load tends to be overestimated by traditional formulas. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

云南地区地震受灾人口与经济损失评估

地震灾害损失评估标准实施以来,云南地区共发生过46次破坏性地震。以46次破坏性地震的灾害损失评估资料为基础,分析了受灾人口与地震灾害经济损失的相关性,结果为两者呈非线性关系。提出利用受灾人口数据进行地震灾害损失快速预估的简便方法,并应用所提的方法对2001年云南地区7组地震的灾害损失进行了分析研究。