Global risks of Bedellia somnulentella (Lepidoptera: Bedelliidae) invasion: a modeling exercise using a mechanistic model,CLIMEX

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study aimed to identify the global risk of invasion and establishment of Bedellia somnulentella, a pest of the sweet potato crop, for the present and...     

Dimensionality reduction in drought modelling

For monitoring hydrological events characterized by high spatial and temporal variability, the number and location of recording stations must be carefully selected to ensure that the necessary information is collected. Depending on the characteristics of each natural process, certain stations may be spurious or redundant, whereas others may provide most of the relevant data. With the objective of reducing the costs of the monitoring system and, at the same time, improving its operational effectiveness, three procedures were applied to identify the minimum network of rain gauge stations able to capture the characteristics of droughts in mainland Portugal. Drought severity is characterized by the standardized precipitation index applied to the timescales of 1, 3, 6 and 12 consecutive months. The three techniques used to reduce the dimensionality of the network of rain gauges were as follows: (i) artificial neural networks with sensitivity analysis, (ii) application of the mutual information criterion and (iii) K‐means cluster analysis using Euclidean distances. The results demonstrated that the best dimensionality reduction method was case dependent in the three regions of Portugal (northern, central and southern) previously identified by cluster analysis. All the reduction techniques lead to the selection of a subset of rain gauges capable of reproducing the original temporal patterns of drought. For specific severe drought events in Portugal in the past, the comparison between drought spatial patterns obtained with the original stations and the selected subset indicated that the subset produced statistically satisfactory results (correlation coefficients higher than 0.6 and efficiency coefficients higher than 0.5). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unravelling the widening of the earliest Andean northern orogen: Maastrichtian to early Eocene intra‐basinal deformation in the northern Eastern Cordillera of Colombia

The onset of deformation in the northern Andes is overprinted by subsequent stages of basin deformation, complicating the examination of competing models illustrating potential location of earliest synorogenic basins and uplifts. To establish the width of the earliest northern Andean orogen, we carried out field mapping, palynological dating, sedimentary, stratigraphic and provenance analyses in Campanian to lower Eocene units exposed in the northern Eastern Cordillera of Colombia (Cocuy region) and compare the results with coeval succession in adjacent basins. The onset of deformation is recorded in earliest Maastrichtian time, as terrigenous detritus arrived into the basin marking the end of chemical precipitation and the onset of clastic deposition produced by the uplift of a western source area dominated by shaly Cretaceous rocks. Disconformable contacts within the upper Maastrichtian to middle Palaeocene succession document increasing supply of quartzose sandy detritus from Cretaceous quartzose rocks exposed in eastern source areas. The continued unroofing of both source areas produced a rapid shift in depositional environments from shallow marine in Maastrichtian to fluvial‐lacustrine systems during the Palaeocene‐early Eocene. Supply of immature Jurassic sandstones from nearby western uplifts, together with localized plutonic and volcanic Cretaceous rocks, caused a shift in Palaeocene sandstones composition from quartzarenites to litharenites. Supply of detrital sandy fragments, unstable heavy minerals and Cretaceous to Ordovician detrital zircons, were derived from nearby uplifted blocks and from SW fluvial systems within the synorogenic basin, instead of distal basement rocks. The presence of volcanic rock fragments and 51–59 Ma volcanic zircons constrain magmatism within the basin. The Maastrichtian–Palaeocene sequence studied here documents crustal deformation that correlates with coeval deformation farther south in Ecuador and Peru. Slab flattening of the subducting Caribbean plate produced a wider orogen (>400 km) with a continental magmatic arc and intra‐basinal deformation and magmatism.     

Combination of different space-geodetic observations for regional ionosphere modeling

Most of the space-geodetic observation techniques can be used for modeling the distribution of free electrons in the Earth’s ionosphere. By combining different techniques one can take advantage of their different spatial and temporal distributions as well as their different observation characteristics and sensitivities concerning ionospheric parameter estimation. The present publication introduces a procedure for multi-dimensional ionospheric modeling. The model consists of a given reference part and an unknown correction part expanded in terms of B-spline functions. This approach is used to compute regional models of Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) based on the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI 2007) and GPS observations from terrestrial Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) reference stations, radio occultation data from Low Earth Orbiters (LEOs), dual-frequency radar altimetry measurements, and data obtained by Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). The approach overcomes deficiencies in the climatological IRI model and reaches the same level of accuracy than GNSS-based VTEC maps from IGS. In areas without GNSS observations (e.g., over the oceans) radio occultations and altimetry provide valuable measurements and further improve the VTEC maps. Moreover, the approach supplies information on the offsets between different observation techniques as well as on their different sensitivity for ionosphere modeling. Altogether, the present procedure helps to derive improved ionospheric corrections (e.g., for one-frequency radar altimeters) and at the same time it improves our knowledge on the Earth’s ionosphere.     

A hybrid fast algorithm for first arrivals tomography

A hybrid algorithm, combining Monte-Carlo optimization with simultaneous iterative reconstructive technique (SIRT) tomography, is used to invert first arrival traveltimes from seismic data for building a velocity model. Stochastic algorithms may localize a point around the global minimum of the misfit function but are not suitable for identifying the precise solution. On the other hand, a tomographic model reconstruction, based on a local linearization, will only be successful if an initial model already close to the best solution is available. To overcome these problems, in the method proposed here, a first model obtained using a classical Monte Carlo-based optimization is used as a good initial guess for starting the local search with the SIRT tomographic reconstruction. In the forward problem, the first-break times are calculated by solving the eikonal equation through a velocity model with a fast finite-difference method instead of the traditional slow ray-tracing technique. In addition, for the SIRT tomography the seismic energy from sources to receivers is propagated by applying a fast Fresnel volume approach which when combined with turning rays can handle models with both positive and negative velocity gradients. The performance of this two-step optimization scheme has been tested on synthetic and field data for building a geologically plausible velocity model.This is an efficient and fast search mechanism, which permits insertion of geophysical, geological and geodynamic a priori constraints into the grid model and ray path is completed avoided. Extension of the technique to 3D data and also to the solution of 'static correction' problems is easily feasible.