Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.     

Anticipating the effects of groundwater withdrawal on seawater intrusion and soil settlement in urban coastal areas

Intensive pumping in urban coastal areas is a common threat to water resource quality due to seawater intrusion. In those areas where subsurface water resources are not usually used for human consumption or irrigation, intensive pumping is associated with other activities like the lowering of the water table necessary to support underground structures and building foundations. This activity also increases the likelihood of soil settlement that affects building stability and the corrosion of concrete structures due to groundwater salinity. Under these circumstances, the awareness of a certain municipality (Calonge, NE Spain) of the potential effects of groundwater withdrawal upon foundations has led to an integrated approach to anticipate seawater intrusion related to urban development. Geological mapping and correlation of borehole logs, electrical resistivity tomography, and hydrochemical data provide comprehensive knowledge of the geology and hydrogeology of the area and act as screening tools necessary to discern the influence of hydrological processes in coastal areas. Developing Strack's analytical solution, new comprehensive, dimensionless expressions are herein derived to determine the critical pumping rate necessary to prevent seawater intrusion, as well as to reproduce the evolution of the wedge toe and the water table stagnation point under different withdrawal rates. Furthermore, the Dupuit–Forchheimer well discharge formula allows the estimation of the effects of the water table lowering due to such critical pumping in the surrounding building foundations. Field data from the Calonge coastal plain illustrate this approach and provide assessment criteria for future urban development and planning. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hurricanes and labor market outcomes: Evidence for Mexico

Hurricanes are becoming frequent events that affect more people every time, and in this context the identification of the effects on the labor market may be important for the policy design of mechanisms to cope more effectively with these shocks. Using hurricanes as exogenous shocks and with microdata from 32 metropolitan areas in Mexico from 2000 to 2011, we analyze the effect on the returns for skill levels, hours worked and jobs with access to social security. Results show that the impact seems to be mostly positive on wages and formal jobs for low educated workers. There is no specific pattern of results for intensity of the hurricanes.     

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strato-mesospheric ozone and IMF sector boundary

Summary We find no effect of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF) sector boundary crossing in ozone at altitudes ranging from the middle stratosphere(10 hPa) to the lower mesosphere(0.4 hPa) at middle latitudes(40°–60° N), based on winter data over the period of December 1979–December 1982.

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Резюме Мы не нaшлu нuкaко о эффекma nересеченuя секmорноŭ рaнuцы межnлaнеmно о мa нumно о nоля в озоне в облaсmu высоm меж?rt;у сре?rt;неŭ сmрamосфероŭ(10 Пa) u нuжнеŭ мезосфероŭ(0,4 Пa) нa сре?rt;нuх шuроmaх(40°–60° с.ш.), nрuменяя зuмнuе ?rt;aнные зa nерuо?rt; ?rt;екaбрь 1979 – ?rt;екaбрь 1982 .

     

Aquifer development planning to supply a seaside resort: a case study in Goa,India

Using the hydrogeological and socio-economic data derived from a European Commission research project on the measurement, monitoring and sustainability of the coastal environment, two optimization models have been applied to satisfy the future water resources needs of the coastal zone of Bardez in Goa, India. The number of tourists visiting Goa since the 1970s has risen considerably, and roughly a third of them go to Bardez taluka, prompting growth in the tourist-related infrastructure in the region. The optimization models are non-linear mixed integer models that have been solved using GAMS/DICOPT++ commercial software. Optimization models were used, firstly, to indicate the most suitable zones for building seaside resorts and wells to supply the tourist industry with an adequate amount of water, and secondly, to indicate the best location for wells to adequately supply pre-existing hotels. The models presented will help to define the optimal locations for the wells and the hydraulic infrastructures needed to satisfy demand at minimum cost, taking into account environmental constraints such as the risk of saline intrusion.

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Résumé A l’aide de données hydrogéologiques et socio-économiques, dérivées d’un projet de recherche de la Commission Européenne sur l’étude, la surveillance et la durabilité de l’environnement c?tier, deux modèles d’optimisation ont été appliqués en vue de satisfaire les besoins futurs en ressources en eau de la zone c?tière de Bardez au Goa en Inde. Le nombre de touristes qui visitent le Goa depuis les années 70 a considérablement augmenté et environ un tiers d’entre eux se rend à Bardez taluka, ce qui encourage la croissance des infrastructures liées au tourisme dans la région. Les modèles d’optimisation sont des modèles non linéaires mixtes en nombres entiers qui ont été résolus en utilisant le logiciel commercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Les modèles d’optimisation ont été utilisés pour indiquer premièrement les zones les plus appropriées pour construire des stations balnéaires et des puits pour approvisionner en quantité d’eau suffisante l’industrie touristique, et deuxièmement pour indiquer la meilleure localisation de puits pour l’alimentation des h?tels préexistants. Les modèles présentés aideront à définir les localisations optimales des puits et des infrastructures hydrauliques nécessaires à la satisfaction de la demande à un co?t minimum, tout en prenant en compte les contraintes environnementales, tel que le risque d’intrusion saline.

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Resumen Se han aplicado dos modelos de optimización en base a datos socio-económicos e hidrogeológicos derivados de un proyecto de investigación de la Comisión Europea sobre medición, monitoreo y sostenibilidad del ambiente costero para satisfacer las necesidades futuras de recursos hídricos de la zona costera de Bardez en Goa, India. El número de turistas que visita Goa desde la década de 1970′s ha subido considerablemente y cerca de un tercio de ellos van a Bardez taluka impulsando el crecimiento en la infraestructura turística de la región. Los modelos de optimización son modelos de números enteros mixtos no-lineales que se han resuelto usando el programa comercial GAMS/DICOPT++. Los modelos de optimización se usaron, primero para indicar las zonas más adecuadas para la construcción de centros de diversión en las márgenes del océano y pozos para abastecer la industria turística con una adecuada cantidad de agua, y segundo, para indicar la mejor localización de pozos para el abastecimiento de hoteles pre-existentes. Los modelos que se presentan ayudarán a definir las localizaciones óptimas para los pozos y las infraestructuras hidráulicas necesarias para satisfacer la demanda al mínimo costo, tomando en consideración restricciones ambientales tal como el riesgo de intrusión salina.

     

Analysis of the weightiness of site effects on reinforced concrete (RC) building seismic behaviour: The Adra town example (SE Spain)

The damage distribution in Adra town (south‐eastern Spain) during the 1993 and 1994 Adra earthquakes (5.0 magnitude), that reached a maximum intensity degree of VII (European Macroseismic Scale (EMS scale)), was concentrated mainly in the south‐east zone of the town and the most relevant damage occurred in reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with four or five storeys. In order to evaluate the influence of ground condition on RC building behaviour, geological, geomorphological and geophysical surveys were carried out, and a detailed map of ground surface structure was obtained. Short‐period microtremor observations were performed in 160 sites on a 100m × 100m dimension grid and Nakamura's method was applied in order to determine a distribution map of soil predominant periods. Shorter predominant periods (0.1–0.3 s) were found in mountainous and neighbouring zones and larger periods (greater than 0.5 s) in thicker Holocene alluvial fans. A relationship T = (0.049 ± 0.001)N, where T is the natural period of swaying motion and N is the number of storeys, has been empirically obtained by using microtremor measurements at the top of 38 RC buildings (ranging from 2 to 9 storeys). 1‐D simulation of strong motion on different soil conditions and for several typical RC buildings were computed, using the acceleration record in Adra town of the 1993 earthquake. It is noteworthy that all the aforementioned results show the influence of site effects in the degree and distribution of observed building damage. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ponderomotive effects in magnetospheric hydromagnetic waves

The ponderomotive force (PMF) is a ubiquitous nonlinear wave effect arising in plasma physics when applied wave fields or plasma parameters have significant spatial gradients. Some basic properties of the PMF are described as they relate to ULF hydromagnetic waves in the magnetosphere. Examples are given of recent results obtained using both analytical and numerical techniques for waves from the lowest frequencies (determined by the dimensions of the magnetosphere) up to the vicinity of the ion cyclotron frequency. These results include the possibilities that the PMF may transport plasma over large distances in the magnetosphere, and that the PMF may energize magnetospheric ions significantly. In particular the PMF may play a role in transporting and energizing O⁺ ions from the ionosphere into the body of the magnetosphere. The PMF can also generate nonlinear coupling between the slow magnetosonic mode and the other hydromagnetic modes. This should lead to limitation of density enhancements and, notably in the case of standing Alfvén waves, to spatial harmonic generation, secularly growing frequency shifts, and saturation of driven wave fields. Some implications of these results for the magnetosphere are discussed.Based on an invited review given in IAGA Symposium 3.07, Nonlinear and Kinetic Effects in ULF Waves, at the IUGG XXI General Assembly, Boulder, Colorado, July 2-14, 1995.     

NO2 total column evolution during the 1989 spring at Antarctica Peninsula

Ground-based visible differential absorption spectrometry during twilight has been used for NO₂ total column observations at the Antarctica Peninsula, Marambio Base (64S, 56W), during the austral spring of 1989 (9 September to 25 November).Results show moderate NO₂ vertical column levels of 1.5 to 2.5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the morning and 2 to 3×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in the evening until middle October, highly modulated by planetary wave activity. From that date until the end of the period, a steady increase occurs which is associated with the rising of lower stratosphere temperature as the vortex weakens, reaching values of 5×10¹⁵ molec cm^-2 in late November, with small a.m.-p.m. differences. NO₂ is found to be positively correlated to both total ozone and 50 hPa temperature during the entire spring. However, when analyzing the departures from linear trends, a highly negative correlation has been observed from day 301 onwards.     

A paleoenvironmental reconstruction of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico based on ostracode paleoecology and trace element shell chemistry

Paleoecology of Laguna Babícora, Chihuahua, Mexico was reconstructed using ostracode faunal assemblages and shell chemistry. The paleolimnological record is used to show the magnitude of paleoclimatic changes in the area from 25,000 years to the present.Faunal assemblages consist of four species of the genus Limnocythere: L. sappaensis, L. ceriotuberosa, L. bradburyi and L. platyforma, all associated with Candona caudata, Candona patzcuaro and Cypridopsis vidua. A paleosalinity index developed from these assemblages indicates that the lake's salinity fluctuated frequently from oligo- to meso-haline conditions during the last 25,000 years. This pattern and low salinity range are in good agreement with modern TDS (here used as an indicator of salinity) values recorded from 26 wells and one spring from the area (258–975 mg l^–1). To estimate paleotemperature we examined the trace element content (Mg/Ca ratios) from individual valves of L. ceriotuberosa and L. platyforma, the two species most commonly recorded in Laguna Babícora.Shell Mg/Ca ratios of 204 specimens of these two species were used to estimate water temperature (Mg/Ca) by means of experimental standard coefficients. Our data show that paleowater temperature ranged from 5.6–21.3 °C (with 2 values ranging from 0.2–4.8 °C), which suggest a close correlation with atmospheric temperatures around the lake. These results are in good agreement with a modern mean winter temperature (3.5 °C) and mean summer temperature (20 °C) recorded in the area between 1970 and 1980.