Forecasting Solar Flares Using Magnetogram-based Predictors and Machine Learning

We propose a forecasting approach for solar flares based on data from Solar Cycle 24, taken by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) mission. In particular, we use the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) product that facilitates cut-out magnetograms of solar active regions (AR) in the Sun in near-realtime (NRT), taken over a five-year interval (2012?–?2016). Our approach utilizes a set of thirteen predictors, which are not included in the SHARP metadata, extracted from line-of-sight and vector photospheric magnetograms. We exploit several machine learning (ML) and conventional statistics techniques to predict flares of peak magnitude \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) and \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) within a 24 h forecast window. The ML methods used are multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), support vector machines (SVM), and random forests (RF). We conclude that random forests could be the prediction technique of choice for our sample, with the second-best method being multi-layer perceptrons, subject to an entropy objective function. A Monte Carlo simulation showed that the best-performing method gives accuracy \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.93(0.00)\), true skill statistic \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.74(0.02)\), and Heidke skill score \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.49(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{M1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 15% and \(\mathrm{ACC}=0.84(0.00)\), \(\mathrm{TSS}=0.60(0.01)\), and \(\mathrm{HSS}=0.59(0.01)\) for \({>}\,\mbox{C1}\) flare prediction with probability threshold 35%.     

Seismic design of RC structures: A critical assessment in the framework of multi‐objective optimization

The assessment of seismic design codes has been the subject of intensive research work in an effort to reveal weak points that originated from the limitations in predicting with acceptable precision the response of the structures under moderate or severe earthquakes. The objective of this work is to evaluate the European seismic design code, i.e. the Eurocode 8 (EC8), when used for the design of 3D reinforced concrete buildings, versus a performance‐based design (PBD) procedure, in the framework of a multi‐objective optimization concept. The initial construction cost and the maximum interstorey drift for the 10/50 hazard level are the two objectives considered for the formulation of the multi‐objective optimization problem. The solution of such optimization problems is represented by the Pareto front curve which is the geometric locus of all Pareto optimum solutions. Limit‐state fragility curves for selected designs, taken from the Pareto front curves of the EC8 and PBD formulations, are developed for assessing the two seismic design procedures. Through this comparison it was found that a linear analysis in conjunction with the behaviour factor q of EC8 cannot capture the nonlinear behaviour of an RC structure. Consequently the corrected EC8 Pareto front curve, using the nonlinear static procedure, differs significantly with regard to the corresponding Pareto front obtained according to EC8. Furthermore, similar designs, with respect to the initial construction cost, obtained through the EC8 and PBD formulations were found to exhibit different maximum interstorey drift and limit‐state fragility curves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The influence of anisotropy on compaction bands: The case of coaxiality between stress and fabric anisotropy tensors

Compaction bands are localized failure patterns that appear in highly porous rock material under the effect of relatively high confining pressure. Being affected mainly by volumetric compression, these bands appear to be almost perpendicular to the most compressive principal stress of a stress state at the so-called “cap” of the yield surface (YS). In this study, we focus on the mechanism that leads to the onset of compaction bands by using a viscoplasticity model able to describe the post-localization response of these materials. The proposed constitutive framework is based on the overstress theory of Perzyna (1966) and the anisotropic clay plasticity model of Dafalias (1986), which provides not only the necessary “cap” of the YS, but introduces a rotational hardening (RH) mechanism, thus, accounting for the effect of fabric anisotropy. Following the analysis of Veveakis and Regenauer-Lieb (2015), we identify the compaction bands as “static” cnoidal wave formations in the medium that occur at a post-yield regime, and we study the effect of rotational and isotropic hardening on their onset. Moreover, we determine a theoretical range of confining pressures in triaxial compression tests for the compaction bands to develop. Under the assumption of coaxiality between stress and anisotropy tensors, the results show that the isotropic hardening promotes compaction localization, whereas the RH has a slightly negative effect on the onset of compaction localization.     

Continuous assessment of landslides by measuring their basal temperature

Landslides - In this study, we suggest a temperature-based assessment and mitigation approach for deep-seated landslides that allows to forecast the behavior of the slide and assess its stability....     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Transient elastodynamic analysis of three-dimensional problems by boundary element method

An advanced implementation of the direct boundary element method applicable to transient problems involving three-dimensional solids of arbitrary shape and connectivity is presented. The work first focuses on the formulation of the method, followed by a discussion of the fundamental singular solutions. Subsequently, a family of isoparametric boundary elements is introduced, along with the necessary numerical integration techniques as well as the solution algorithm. Numerical examples are presented, which demonstrate the unconditional stability and high accuracy of this dynamic analysis technique.     

The Fluid Dynamics of Solid Mechanical Shear Zones

Shear zones in outcrops and core drillings on active faults commonly reveal two scales of localization, with centimeter to tens of meters thick deformation zones embedding much narrower zones of mm-scale to cm-scale. The narrow zones are often attributed to some form of fast instability such as earthquakes or slow slip events. Surprisingly, the double localisation phenomenon seem to be independent of the mode of failure, as it is observed in brittle cataclastic fault zones as well as ductile mylonitic shear zones. In both, a very thin layer of chemically altered, ultra fine grained ultracataclasite or ultramylonite is noted. We present an extension to the classical solid mechanical theory where both length scales emerge as part of the same evolutionary process of shearing the host rock. We highlight the important role of any type of solid-fluid phase transitions that govern the second degree localisation process in the core of the shear zone. In both brittle and ductile shear zones, chemistry stops the localisation process caused by a multiphysics feedback loop leading to an unstable slip. The microstructural evolutionary processes govern the time-scale of the transition between slow background shear and fast, intermittent instabilities in the fault zone core. The fast cataclastic fragmentation processes are limiting the rates of forming the ultracataclasites in the brittle domain, while the slow dynamic recrystallisation prolongs the transition to ultramylonites into a slow slip instability in the ductile realm.     

Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predictors of Flaring Activity

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric magnetograms and/or white-light observations. Two of them are the Ising energy and the sum of the total horizontal magnetic field gradient. The former has been developed from line-of-sight magnetograms, while the latter uses sunspot detections and characteristics, based on continuum images. Aiming to include these parameters in an automated prediction scheme, we test their applicability on regular photospheric magnetic field observations provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We test their efficiency as predictors of flaring activity on a representative sample of active regions and investigate possible modifications of these quantities. The Ising energy appears to be an efficient predictor, and the efficiency is even improved if it is modified to describe interacting magnetic partitions or sunspot umbrae. The sum of the horizontal magnetic field gradient appears to be slightly more promising than the three variations of the Ising energy we implement in this article. The new predictors are also compared with two very promising predictors: the effective connected magnetic field strength and the total unsigned non-neutralized current. Our analysis shows that the efficiency of morphological predictors depends on projection effects in a nontrivial way. All four new predictors are found useful for inclusion in an automated flare forecasting facility, such as the Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST), but their utility, among others, will ultimately be determined by the validation effort underway in the framework of the FLARECAST project.