Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predictors of Flaring Activity

Efficient prediction of solar flares relies on parameters that quantify the eruptive capability of solar active regions. Several such quantitative predictors have been proposed in the literature, inferred mostly from photospheric magnetograms and/or white-light observations. Two of them are the Ising energy and the sum of the total horizontal magnetic field gradient. The former has been developed from line-of-sight magnetograms, while the latter uses sunspot detections and characteristics, based on continuum images. Aiming to include these parameters in an automated prediction scheme, we test their applicability on regular photospheric magnetic field observations provided by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). We test their efficiency as predictors of flaring activity on a representative sample of active regions and investigate possible modifications of these quantities. The Ising energy appears to be an efficient predictor, and the efficiency is even improved if it is modified to describe interacting magnetic partitions or sunspot umbrae. The sum of the horizontal magnetic field gradient appears to be slightly more promising than the three variations of the Ising energy we implement in this article. The new predictors are also compared with two very promising predictors: the effective connected magnetic field strength and the total unsigned non-neutralized current. Our analysis shows that the efficiency of morphological predictors depends on projection effects in a nontrivial way. All four new predictors are found useful for inclusion in an automated flare forecasting facility, such as the Flare Likelihood and Region Eruption Forecasting (FLARECAST), but their utility, among others, will ultimately be determined by the validation effort underway in the framework of the FLARECAST project.     

Elastic waves in nonhomogeneous media under 2D conditions: II. Numerical implementation

The purpose of this work is to present three methods of analysis for elastic waves propagating in two dimensional, elastic nonhomogeneous media. The first step, common to all methods, is a transformation of the governing equations of motion so that derivatives with respect to the material parameters no longer appear in the differential operator. This procedure, however, restricts analysis to a very specific class of nonhomogeneous media, namely those for which Poisson's ratio is equal to 0.25 and the elastic parameters are quadratic functions of position. Subsequently, fundamental solutions are evaluated by: (i) conformal mapping in conjunction with wave decomposition, which in principle allows for both vertical and lateral heterogeneities; (ii) wave decomposition into pseudo-dilatational and pseudo-rotational components, which results in an Euler-type equation for the transformed solution if medium heterogeneity is a function of one coordinate only; and (iii) Fourier transformation followed by a first order differential equation system solution, where the final step involving inverse transformation from the wavenumber domain is accomplished numerically. Finally, in the companion paper numerical examples serve to illustrate the above methodologies and to delineate their range of applicability.     

Photospheric Shear Flows in Solar Active Regions and Their Relation to Flare Occurrence

Solar active regions (ARs) that produce major flares typically exhibit strong plasma shear flows around photospheric magnetic polarity inversion lines (MPILs). It is therefore important to quantitatively measure such photospheric shear flows in ARs for a better understanding of their relation to flare occurrence. Photospheric flow fields were determined by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method to a large data set of 2548 coaligned pairs of AR vector magnetograms with 12-min separation over the period 2012?–?2016. From each AR flow-field map, three shear-flow parameters were derived corresponding to the mean (\(\langle S\rangle \)), maximum (\(S_{\mathrm{max}}\)) and integral (\(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\)) shear-flow speeds along strong-gradient, strong-field MPIL segments. We calculated flaring rates within 24 h as a function of each shear-flow parameter and we investigated the relation between the parameters and the waiting time (\(\tau \)) until the next major flare (class M1.0 or above) after the parameter observation. In general, it is found that the larger \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) an AR has, the more likely it is for the AR to produce flares within 24 h. It is also found that among ARs which produce major flares, if one has a larger value of \(S_{\mathrm{sum}}\) then \(\tau \) generally gets shorter. These results suggest that large ARs with widespread and/or strong shear flows along MPILs tend to not only be more flare productive, but also produce major flares within 24 h or less.     

EC8-based earthquake record selection procedure evaluation: Validation study based on observed damage of an irregular R/C building

This study investigates the applicability and limitations of the Eurocode 8 earthquake ground motion selection framework for the assessment of both elastic and inelastic structural response of multi-storey, irregular R/C buildings subjected to bi-directional loading. In order to minimize modelling uncertainties inherent in the quantification of structural damage and the consideration of the supporting soil–foundation system for complex structural systems, an existing building damaged by the 2003 Lefkada earthquake was adopted as case study. This selection has an advantage in that ground excitation, soil profile and damage observations are all available, thus permitting calibration of the finite element model with the observed response, especially in terms of use of appropriate plasticity models and damage indices, plus the assessment of soil–structure interaction effects. After establishing a reliable finite element model of the structure under study, extensive parametric analyses for different EC8 compliant sets of records were conducted, permitting quantification of the discrepancy of the structural response due to record-to-record and set-to-set variability (i.e., intra-set and inter-set scatter, respectively). The results confirm that many of the observations found in the literature regarding the effect of ground motion selection on the predicted seismic performance of SDOF systems are also valid for bi-directionally excited, multi-storey, irregular buildings. Finally, the results also highlight specific limitations of the EC8 provisions that may lead to erroneous results in many practical cases.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways using high frequency sampling,REE aqueous sampling and soil characterization at Koiliaris Critical Zone Observatory,Crete

Koiliaris River watershed is a Critical Zone Observatory that represents severely degraded soils due to intensive agricultural activities and biophysical factors. It has typical Mediterranean soils under the imminent threat of desertification which is expected to intensify due to projected climate change. High frequency hydro-chemical monitoring with targeted sampling for Rare Earth Elements (REE) analysis of different water bodies and geochemical characterization of soils were used for the identification of hydrologic and geochemical pathways. The high frequency monitoring of water chemical data highlighted the chemical alterations of water in Koiliaris River during flash flood events. Soil physical and chemical characterization surveys were used to identify erodibility patterns within the watershed and the influence of soils on surface and ground water chemistry. The methodology presented can be used to identify the impacts of degraded soils to surface and ground water quality as well as in the design of methods to minimize the impacts of land use practices.     

Are Solar Active Regions with Major Flares More Fractal, Multifractal, or Turbulent Than Others?

Multiple recent investigations of solar magnetic-field measurements have raised claims that the scale-free (fractal) or multiscale (multifractal) parameters inferred from the studied magnetograms may help assess the eruptive potential of solar active regions, or may even help predict major flaring activity stemming from these regions. We investigate these claims here, by testing three widely used scale-free and multiscale parameters, namely, the fractal dimension, the multifractal structure function and its inertial-range exponent, and the turbulent power spectrum and its power-law index, on a comprehensive data set of 370 timeseries of active-region magnetograms (17?733 magnetograms in total) observed by SOHO’s Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) over the entire Solar Cycle 23. We find that both flaring and non-flaring active regions exhibit significant fractality, multifractality, and non-Kolmogorov turbulence but none of the three tested parameters manages to distinguish active regions with major flares from flare-quiet ones. We also find that the multiscale parameters, but not the scale-free fractal dimension, depend sensitively on the spatial resolution and perhaps the observational characteristics of the studied magnetograms. Extending previous works, we attribute the flare-forecasting inability of fractal and multifractal parameters to i)?a?widespread multiscale complexity caused by a possible underlying self-organization in turbulent solar magnetic structures, flaring and non-flaring alike, and ii)?a?lack of correlation between the fractal properties of the photosphere and overlying layers, where solar eruptions occur. However useful for understanding solar magnetism, therefore, scale-free and multiscale measures may not be optimal tools for active-region characterization in terms of eruptive ability or, ultimately, for major solar-flare prediction.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Evaluation of atmospheric transport as a nonpoint source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in marine sediments of the Eastern Mediterranean

Coastal marine sediment, air and seawater samples were collected at six sampling stations in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea distant from pollutant point sources. All sediment samples were analyzed to determine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) contents. The PAH contents of gaseous and seawater samples of the study were determined in order to evaluate the role of air–sea exchange as PAH nonpoint source to the marine sediments. The average concentration of the total PAHs (∑PAHs) in the sediments varied from 2.2 to 1056.2 ng g⁻¹ dry weight. The average BC and OC contents varied from 0.3 to 5.6 and from 2.9 to 21.4 mg g⁻¹ dry weight, respectively. ∑PAH concentration in the marine atmosphere varied from 20.0 to 83.2 ng m⁻³. Air–water exchange flux (F_A–W) estimation has indicated air transport as a significant source of PAHs to pristine marine sediments of Eastern Mediterranean. In addition, the significant correlation between the PAHs and the organic and soot carbon content further suggests the importance of atmospheric input of PAHs to the sediments.     

Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.