Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways

Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level.

Policy relevance

These research questions are of special interest and urgency following the Paris Agreement in 2015. It calls on all countries to monitor the implementation of their national contributions and review their ambition regularly. The regular revision of decarbonization pathways constitute a great research opportunity to gather experiences on decarbonization pathway implementation and on dynamic management issues to progress towards an operational dynamic adaptive policy pathway mechanism.     

The importance of tides for sediment dynamics in the deep sea—Evidence from the particulate-matter tracer 234Th in deep-sea environments with different tidal forcing

Key aspects of deep-ocean fluid dynamics such as basin-scale (residual) and tidal flow are believed to have changed over glacial/interglacial cycles, with potential relevance for climatic change. To constrain the mechanistic links, magnitudes and temporal succession of events analyses of sedimentary paleo-records are of great importance. Efforts have been underway for some time to reconstruct residual-flow patterns from sedimentary records. Attempts to reconstruct tidal flow characteristics from deep-sea sediment deposits, however, are at a very early stage and first require a better understanding of the reflection of modern tides in sediment dynamics. In this context internal (baroclinic) tides, which are formed by the surface (barotropic) tide interacting with seafloor obstacles, are believed to play a particularly important role. Here we compare two modern deep-sea environments with respect to the effect of tides on sediment dynamics. Both environments are influenced by kilometre-scale topographic features but with vastly different tidal forcing: (1) two sites in the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) being surrounded by, or located downstream of, fields of short seamounts (maximum barotropic tidal current velocities ～5 cm s^?1); and (2) a site next to the Anaximenes seamount in the Eastern Mediterranean (EMed) (maximum barotropic tidal current velocities ～0.5 cm s^?1). With respect to other key fluid-dynamical parameters both environments are very similar. Signals of sedimentary particle dynamics, as influenced by processes taking place in the bottom boundary layer, were traced by the vertical water-column distribution of radioactive disequilibria (daughter/parent activity ratios≠1) between the naturally occurring, short-lived (half-life: 24.1 d) particulate-matter tracer ²³⁴Th relative to its very long-lived and non-particle-reactive parent nuclide ²³⁸U. Activity ratios of ²³⁴Th/²³⁸U<1 in water samples collected near the seafloor indicate fast ²³⁴Th scavenging onto particles followed by fast settling of these particles from the sampled parcel of water and, therefore, imply active sediment resuspension and dynamics on time scales of up to several weeks. In the Northeast Atlantic study region tides (in particular internal tides) are very likely to locally push total current velocities near the seafloor across the critical current velocity threshold for sediment erosion or resuspension whereas in the Eastern Mediterranean the tides are much too weak for this to happen. This difference in tidal forcing is reflected in a difference of the frequency of the occurrence of radioactive disequilibria <1 between total ²³⁴Th and ²³⁸U: In the near-bottom water column of the Northeast Atlantic region 59% of samples had detectable ²³⁴Th/²³⁸U disequilibria whereas at the Eastern Mediterranean site this fraction was only 7% (including a few disequilibria >1). The results of this study, therefore, add to the evidence suggesting that tides in the deep sea of the open oceans are more important for sediment dynamics than previously thought. It is hypothesised that (a) tide/seamount interactions in the deep open ocean control the local distribution of erosivity proxies (e.g., distributions of sediment grain sizes, heavy minerals and particle-reactive radionuclides) in sedimentary deposits and (b) the aforementioned topographically controlled sedimentary imprints of (internal) tides are useful in the reconstruction of past changes of tidal forcing in the deep sea.     

Chronology of late Pleistocene Pampa loess from the Córdoba area in Argentina

In Argentina, loess/palaeosol sequences were studied from the two sections at Monte Ralo and Corralito, located near to the city of Córdoba in the east of the Pampean ranges. Infrared optically stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and thermoluminescence (TL) dating techniques were applied to set up a more reliable chronological framework for the Upper Pleistocene loess record. IRSL ages increase with depth and are stratigraphically consistent. The oldest loess exposed correlates at least to the penultimate glaciation. The luminescence dating study gives evidence for humid climate conditions with soil formation during the last interglacial period and the middle pleniglacial correlating to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and 3, respectively. Three extended periods of soil formation are recorded in the loess/palaeosol sequences at the Corralito section. These buried soils most likely correlate with the last interglacial and early last glacial period. During the Middle Pleniglacial, two palaeosols are intercalated in the loess successions. In the Córdoba area, the periods of increased loess accumulation and deposition of loessic sediments correlate with more arid and glacial periods during the Early Pleniglacial, the Middle Pleniglacial and the Late Glacial. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The pace of Holocene vegetation change – testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around 8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka. Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.     

Fluvial aggradation phases in the Upper Rhine Graben—new insights by quartz OSL dating

The Upper Rhine Graben (URG) is characterized by a thickness of up to 500 m of unconsolidated Quaternary sediments, providing excellent records of the Rhine river system and its responses to tectonic and climatic changes. The most complete Quaternary sequence of fluvial and limnic-fluvial deposits is found in the Heidelberg Basin, due to its long-term subsidence since the mid-Eocene. The aim of this study is to provide a chronological framework using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of aeolian and fluvial sands derived from the upper 33 m of a sediment core, which was drilled into the Heidelberg Basin infill close to the village of Viernheim, Germany. The OSL ages demonstrate that the dated fluvial sediments were deposited during the last glacial period (Weichselian) and that there were at least three aggradation periods during this episode. The coversands that cap the sequence were emplaced during the early Holocene.     

Determination of major and trace elements in European bottled mineral water — Analytical methods

A total of 1785 European bottled water samples were analyzed using standard laboratory methods. The bottled water samples were purchased in 2008 at supermarkets throughout 40 European countries. The samples were analyzed for 71 chemical parameters (As, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Bi, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Cu, Dy, Er, Eu, Fe, Ga, Gd, Ge, Hf, Hg, Ho, I, K, La, Li, Lu, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nb, Nd, Ni, Pb, Pr, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sm, Sn, Sr, Ta, Tb, Te, Th, Ti, Tl, Tm, U, V, W, Y, Yb, Zn, Zr, Br⁻, HCO₃⁻, Cl⁻, F⁻, NH₄⁺, NO₂⁻, NO₃⁻, PO₄³⁻, SO₄²⁻, SiO₂, pH, and EC) by quadrupole inductively coupled emission spectroscopy (ICP-QMS, trace elements), inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES, major elements), ion chromatography (IC, anions), atomic fluorescence spectrometry (AFS, Hg), titration (alkalinity), photometric methods (NH₄⁺), potentiometric methods (pH), and conductometric methods (specific electrical conductivity, EC). A very strict quality control procedure was followed by analysing blanks, international reference materials, an internal project standard, and duplicate analyses, as well as by analysing 23 elements by both ICP-QMS and ICP-AES. Analysis of marketed bottled water from springs, wells or boreholes, apart from the evaluation of its quality with respect to inorganic elements, it may provide a cheap alternative to obtain a first impression about groundwater chemistry at the European scale.     

Conversion Gain and Interpixel Capacitance of Cmos Hybrid Focal Plane Arrays

The conversion gain of optical and infrared focal plane CMOS hybrid arrays is a fundamental parameter, whose value computes into the derivation of other parameters characterizing the performance of a detector. The widespread “noise squared versus signal” method used to obtain the conversion gain can overestimate the nodal capacitance of the detector pixel by more than 20% for infrared arrays and by more than 100% for Si-PIN diode arrays. This is because this method does not take account of the capacitive coupling between neighboring pixels. A simple technique has been developed to measure the nodal capacitance directly by comparing the voltage change of an external calibrated capacitor with the voltage change on the nodal capacitor of the detector pixel. The method is elaborated in detail and has been verified with a Si-PIN diode array hybridized to a Hawaii-2RG multiplexer using an Fe ⁵⁵ X-ray source. It is also in good agreement with a stochastic method based on 2D autocorrelation.