On the observational determination of climate sensitivity and its implications

We estimate climate sensitivity from observations, using the deseasonalized fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the concurrent fluctuations in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing radiation from the ERBE (1985–1999) and CERES (2000–2008) satellite instruments. Distinct periods of warming and cooling in the SSTs were used to evaluate feedbacks. An earlier study (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) was subject to significant criticisms. The present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various criticisms are taken into account. The present analysis accounts for the 72 day precession period for the ERBE satellite in a more appropriate manner than in the earlier paper. We develop a method to distinguish noise in the outgoing radiation as well as radiation changes that are forcing SST changes from those radiation changes that constitute feedbacks to changes in SST. We demonstrate that our new method does moderately well in distinguishing positive from negative feedbacks and in quantifying negative feedbacks. In contrast, we show that simple regression methods used by several existing papers generally exaggerate positive feedbacks and even show positive feedbacks when actual feedbacks are negative. We argue that feedbacks are largely concentrated in the tropics, and the tropical feedbacks can be adjusted to account for their impact on the globe as a whole. Indeed, we show that including all CERES data (not just from the tropics) leads to results similar to what are obtained for the tropics alone — though with more noise. We again find that the outgoing radiation resulting from SST fluctuations exceeds the zerofeedback response thus implying negative feedback. In contrast to this, the calculated TOA outgoing radiation fluxes from 11 atmospheric models forced by the observed SST are less than the zerofeedback response, consistent with the positive feedbacks that characterize these models. The results imply that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity.     

A review on vegetation models and applicability to climate simulations at regional scale

The lack of accurate representations of biospheric components and their biophysical and biogeochemical processes is a great source of uncertainty in current climate models. The interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and the climate include exchanges not only of energy, water and momentum, but also of carbon and nitrogen. Reliable simulations of these interactions are crucial for predicting the potential impacts of future climate change and anthropogenic intervention on terrestrial ecosystems. In this paper, two biogeographical (Neilson’s rule-based model and BIOME), two biogeochemical (BIOME-BGC and PnET-BGC), and three dynamic global vegetation models (Hybrid, LPJ, and MC1) were reviewed and compared in terms of their biophysical and physiological processes. The advantages and limitations of the models were also addressed. Lastly, the applications of the dynamic global vegetation models to regional climate simulations have been discussed.     

WRF模式三维变分中背景误差协方差估计

利用WRF模式2008年5-10月逐日预报结果,通过NMC方法进行背景误差协方差(B)估计.给出其结构特征,进行单点数值试验,并利用不同B进行1个月的数值模拟试验,检验模拟降水效果.结果表明:通过单点数值试验验证估算的B结构合理.不同的B,资料同化过程差别较大,应用重新统计的B,同化效率更高,目标函数收敛更稳定.模式模...     

Effect of stress history on CPT and DMT results in sand

In order to investigate the effect of stress history on in-situ test results in granular sediments, a series of CPTs and DMTs are performed on Busan sand prepared in the calibration chamber. K_D is found to be the most sensitive to the stress history among CPT and DMT measurements. E_D and q_c are observed to be similarly affected by the stress history and, therefore, the E_D–q_c relation appears to be almost independent of the stress history. The K_D–D_R relation established without considering the stress history is likely to overestimate the relative density of OC sand. It is shown that the existence of the pre-stress of the granular sediment can be indirectly recognized by an estimation of the relative density larger than 100% when using the K_D–σ_v′–D_R relation suggested for NC sand. Although q_c/σ_v′–K_D/K₀ and E_D/σ_v′–K_D/K₀ relations are heavily influenced by the stress history, q_c/σ_m′–K_D/K₀ and E_D/σ_m′–K_D/K₀ relations are observed to be independent of the stress history. Based on these relations, charts to evaluate the K₀ value from q_c and/or DMT indices are developed for both NC and OC sands. The design chart based on E_D/σ_m′–K_D/K₀ and E_D/σ_v′–K_D/K₀ relations is expected to be practically useful as the usage of this chart requires only DMT indices. The developed design charts are applicable to Busan sand but different sets of equations and charts may be developed for other sands.     

青海省天峻县木里煤田聚乎更矿区构造轮廓和地层格架

木里煤田聚乎更矿区是全球陆上中纬度、高海拔冻土带天然气水合物的发现地,也是当前青藏高原地质研究的热点地区之一。依据近年来的煤炭地质勘查资料,对聚乎更矿区的构造轮廓、含煤地层、沉积相和聚煤作用进行深入分析．认为聚乎更矿区位于祁连坳褶带西段,受大通山北缘和托莱山南缘对冲断裂组的制约,构造线总体方向为北西一南东向,构造轮廓表现为南北2个向斜,其中北向斜的煤炭赋存条件优于南向斜。聚乎更矿区含煤地层为中侏罗统木里组和江仓纽。主要可采煤层赋存于木里组上段,聚煤作用主要发生于木里组沉积期的辫状河淤浅之后发育的泥炭沼泽和湖泊、水下三角洲淤浅而发育的泥炭沼泽。     

塔里木盆地西北缘海相白垩系-古近系界线沉积物环境指标研究

发生于中生代-新生代之间的事件是地质历史上一次重大灾变和异常事件,因此白垩系-古近系之间的界线(K/T界线)就成为全球最重要的地质界线之一.通过对塔里木盆地西北缘乌恰地区库孜贡苏河剖面海相上白垩统-古新统地层的岩性和沉积环境变化以及地球化学特征研究,重点利用沉积物色度、有机碳含量、碳酸钙和碳、氧稳定同位素的明显异常变化...     

罗布莎蛇绿岩地幔橄榄岩同位素特征及其成因

罗布莎蛇绿岩岩石单元出露齐全,以地幔橄榄岩为主,构造变形强烈;在堆积杂岩中上部产出有仰冲型斜长花岗岩小岩块;辉绿岩以脉状形式产出于地幔橄榄岩的方辉橄榄岩中;壳层岩石相对很薄且比较复杂.Sr、Nd和Pb同位素组成研究表明:罗布莎地幔橄榄岩绝大多数样品具有高ISr值(0.705489～0.714625);低INd值(0.5...     

Plant communities and factors responsible for vegetation pattern in an alpine area of the northwestern Himalaya

The study intended to describe the alpine vegetation of a protected area of the northwestern Himalaya and identify the important environmental variables responsible for species distribution. We placed random plots covering different habitats and altitude to record species composition and environmental variables. Vegetation was classified using hierarchical cluster analysis and vegetation-environment relationships were evaluated with Canonical Correspondence Analysis. Four communities, each in alpine shrub and meadows were delineated and well justified in the ordination plots. Indicator species for the different communities were identified. Maximum species richness and diversity were found in community IV among shrub communities and community II among the meadows. Studied environmental variables explained 61.5% variation in shrub vegetation and 59.8% variation in meadows. Soil variables explained higher variability (∼35%) than spatial variables (∼21%) in both shrubs and meadows. Altitude, among the spatial variables and carbon/nitrogen ratio and nitrogen among the soil variables explained maximum variation. About 40% variations left unexplained. Latitude and species diversity among the other variables had significant correlation with ordination axes. Study showed that altitude and C/N ratio played a significant role in species composition. Extensive sampling efforts and inclusion of other non-studied variables are also suggested for better understanding.     

Modeling and control of a 75 kW class variable liquid-column oscillator for highly efficient wave energy converter

The modeling and control of a variable liquid-column oscillator having a liquid filled U-tube with air chambers at its vertical columns are presented. As an ocean wave energy extracting device, the structure of the variable liquid-column oscillator (VLCO) is analogous to that of the tuned liquid-column damper used to suppress oscillatory motion in large structures like tall buildings and cargo ships. However, owing to an air spring effect caused by the dynamic pressure of air chambers, the amplitude of response of the VLCO becomes significantly amplified for a desired wave period. The governing equations for the motion of VLCO structure under wave excitation and the motion of liquid with an air spring effect caused by an air–liquid interaction are described by a series of nonlinear differential equations. A set of control parameters for extracting maximum power from various wave conditions is determined for the efficient operation of the VLCO. It is found that the effect of the air spring has an important role to play in making the oscillation of the VLCO match with the ocean wave. In this way, the VLCO provides the most effective mode for extracting energy from the ocean wave.     

1819年黄河中游极端降水:史实、特征及气候背景

据清官档案与方志记载,复原了1819年(清嘉庆二十四年)黄河中、下游大范围房屋倒塌、民田冲没、人口伤亡、黄河多处决溢等雨涝灾情图景及时空分异特征,这是在明清小冰期大气候背景下的极端气候事件和重大气象灾害.研究指出,该年黄河中游夏秋季雨期长(连阴雨)、且多大到暴雨,二级流域(汾河、渭河)6-9月份降水县区雨日高达40日以...