An integrated approach for evaluating the effectiveness of landslide risk reduction in unplanned communities in the Caribbean

Despite the recognition of the need for mitigation approaches to landslide risk in developing countries, the delivery of ‘on-the-ground’ measures is rarely undertaken. With respect to other ‘natural’ hazards, it is widely reported that mitigation can pay. However, the lack of such an evidence base in relation to landslides in developing countries hinders advocacy amongst decision makers for expenditure on ex-ante measures. This research addresses these limitations directly by developing and applying an integrated risk assessment and cost–benefit analysis of physical landslide mitigation measures implemented in an unplanned community in the Eastern Caribbean. In order to quantify the level of landslide risk reduction achieved, landslide hazard and vulnerability were modelled (before and after the intervention), and project costs, direct and indirect benefits were monetised. It is shown that the probability of landslide occurrence has been substantially reduced by implementing surface-water drainage measures and that the benefits of the project outweigh the costs by a ratio of 2.7–1. This paper adds to the evidence base that ‘mitigation pays’ with respect to landslide risk in the most vulnerable communities—thus strengthening the argument for ex-ante measures. This integrated project evaluation methodology should be suitable for adoption as part of the community-based landslide mitigation project cycle, and it is hoped that this resource, and the results of this study, will stimulate further such programmes.     

Tides, sea-level rise and tidal power extraction on the European shelf

An established numerical tidal model has been used to investigate the impact of various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, as well as SLR in combination with large-scale tidal power plants on European shelf tidal dynamics. Even moderate and realistic levels of future SLR are shown to have significant impacts on the tidal dynamics of the area. These changes are further enhanced when SLR and tidal power plants are considered in combination, resulting in changes to tidal amplitudes, currents and associated tidal dissipation and bed shear stresses. Sea-level rise is the dominant influence on any far-field impacts, whereas tidal power plants are shown to have the prevailing influence over any changes close to the point of energy extraction. The spatial extent of the impacts of energy extraction is shown to be affected by the sea level when more than one tidal power plant in the Irish Sea was considered. Different ways to implement SLR in the model are also discussed and shown to be of great significance for the response of the tides.     

Metrics to assess how longitudinal channel network connectivity and in‐stream Atlantic salmon habitats are impacted by hydropower regulation

Habitat fragmentation in channel networks and riverine ecosystems is increasing globally due to the construction of barriers and river regulation. The resulting divergence from the natural state poses a threat to ecosystem integrity. Consequently, a trade‐off is required between the conservation of biodiversity in channel networks and socio‐economic factors including power generation, potable water supplies, fisheries, and tourism. Many of Scotland's rivers are regulated for hydropower generation but also support populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) that have high economic and conservation value. This paper investigates the use of connectivity metrics and weightings to assess the impact of river barriers (impoundments) associated with hydropower regulation on natural longitudinal channel connectivity for Atlantic salmon. We applied 2 different weighting approaches in the connectivity models that accounted for spatial variability in habitat quality for spawning and fry production and contrasted these models with a more traditional approach using wetted area. Assessments of habitat loss using the habitat quality weighted models contrasted with those using the less biologically relevant wetted area. This highlights the importance of including relevant ecological and hydrogeomorphic information in assessing regulation impacts on natural channel connectivity. Specifically, we highlight scenarios where losing a smaller area of productive habitat can have a larger impact on Atlantic salmon than losing a greater area of less suitable habitat. It is recommended that future channel connectivity assessments should attempt to include biologically relevant weightings, rather than relying on simpler metrics like wetted area which can produce misleading assessments of barrier impacts.     

A statistical model of the geomagnetic field

Summary A statistical model of the geomagnetic field is derived, based on the assumption of an axial geocentric dipole field of strengthH _e at the equator perturbed by randomly directed components of constant magnitudeh. The model fits the dispersions found from an analysis of the 1945 field, and the ratioh/H _e obtained for this field and from the palaeomagnetic data both average to about 0.4. The model predicts that during reversal of the dipole field, the field intensity falls to between 0.2 and 0.4 of the steady field intensity, and this agrees with estimates made from the palaeomagnetic observations.     

A powder neutron diffraction study of the crystal structure of the fluoroperovskite NaMgF<Subscript>3</Subscript> (neighborite) from 300 to 3.6 K

The cell dimensions and crystal structures of the fluoroperovskite NaMgF₃ (neighborite), synthesized by solid state methods, have been determined by powder neutron diffraction and Rietveld refinement over the temperature range 300–3.6 K using Pt metal as an internal standard for calibration of the neutron wavelength. These data show that Pbnm NaMgF₃ does not undergo any phase transitions to structures of lower symmetry with decreasing temperature. The cell dimensions and atomic coordinates together with polyhedron volumes and distortion indices are given for Pbnm NaMgF₃ at 25 K intervals from 300 to 3.6 K. Decreases in the a and c cell dimensions reach a saturation point at 50 K, whereas the b dimension becomes saturated at 150 K. The distortion of the structure of Pbnm NaMgF₃ from the aristotype cubic structure is described in terms of the tilting of the MgF₆ octahedra according to the tilt scheme a ⁻ a ⁻ c ⁺ . With decreasing temperature the antiphase tilt (a ⁻) increases from 14.24° to 15.39°, whereas the in-phase tilt (c ⁺ ) remains effectively constant at ∼10.7°. Changes in the tilt angles are insufficient to cause changes in the coordination sphere of Na that might induce a low temperature phase transition. The structure of Pbnm NaMgF₃ is also described in terms of normal mode analysis and displacements of the condensed normal modes are compared with those of Pbnm KCaF₃.     

Evidence for ocean acidification in the Great Barrier Reef of Australia

Geochemical records preserved in the long-lived carbonate skeleton of corals provide one of the few means to reconstruct changes in seawater pH since the commencement of the industrial era. This information is important in not only determining the response of the surface oceans to ocean acidification from enhanced uptake of CO₂, but also to better understand the effects of ocean acidification on carbonate secreting organisms such as corals, whose ability to calcify is highly pH dependent. Here we report an ∼200 year δ¹¹B isotopic record, extracted from a long-lived Porites coral from the central Great Barrier Reef of Australia. This record covering the period from 1800 to 2004 was sampled at yearly increments from 1940 to the present and 5-year increments prior to 1940. The δ¹¹B isotopic compositions reflect variations in seawater pH, and the δ¹³C changes in the carbon composition of surface water due to fossil fuel burning over this period. In addition complementary Ba/Ca, δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca data was obtained providing proxies for terrestrial runoff, salinity and temperature changes over the past 200 years in this region. Positive thermal ionization mass spectrometry (PTIMS) method was utilized in order to enable the highest precision and most accurate measurements of δ¹¹B values. The internal precision and reproducibility for δ¹¹B of our measurements are better than ±0.2‰ (2σ), which translates to a precision of better than ±0.02 pH units. Our results indicate that the long-term pre-industrial variation of seawater pH in this region is partially related to the decadal-interdecadal variability of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the Pacific. In the periods around 1940 and 1998 there are also rapid oscillations in δ¹¹B compositions equivalent changes in pH of almost 0.5 U. The 1998 oscillation is co-incident with a major coral bleaching event indicating the sensitivity of skeletal δ¹¹B compositions to loss of zooxanthellate symbionts. Importantly, from the 1940s to the present-day, there is a general overall trend of ocean acidification with pH decreasing by about 0.2-0.3 U, the range being dependent on the value assumed for the fractionation factor α_(B3-B4) of the boric acid and borate species in seawater. Correlations of δ¹¹B with δ¹³C during this interval indicate that the increasing trend towards ocean acidification over the past 60 years in this region is the result of enhanced dissolution of CO₂ in surface waters from the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂, mainly from fossil fuel burning. This suggests that the increased levels of anthropogenic CO₂ in atmosphere has already caused a significant trend towards acidification in the oceans during the past decades. Observations of surprisingly large decreases in pH across important carbonate producing regions, such as the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, raise serious concerns about the impact of Greenhouse gas emissions on coral calcification.     

Experiments on δS mixing between organic and inorganic sulfur species during thermal maturation

Reduced sulfur species were studied to constrain isotopic exchange-mixing with synthetic polysulfide cross-linked macromolecules (PCLM), model sulfur containing molecules and natural sulfur-rich kerogen, asphalt and oil of the Dead Sea area. PCLM represents protokerogens that are rich in sulfur and thermally unstable. Mixing rates of PCLM with (added as (NH₄)₂S_(aq)) at low to moderate temperatures (50-200 °C) are rapid. Elemental sulfur and H₂S_(gas) fully mix isotopes with PCLM during pyrolysis conditions at 200 °C. During these reactions significant structural changes of the PCLM occur to form polysulfide dimers, thiolanes and thiophenes. As pyrolysis temperatures or reaction times increase, the PCLM thermal products are transformed to more aromatic sulfur compounds. Isotopic mixing rates increase with increasing pyrolysis temperature and time. Polysulfide bonds (S-S) in the PCLM are responsible for most of these structural and isotopic changes because of their low stability. Conversely, sulfur isotope mixing does not occur between dibenzothiophene (aromatic S) or hexadecanthiol (C-SH) and at 200 °C after 48 h. This shows that rates of sulfur isotope mixing are strongly dependent on the functionality of the sulfur in the organic matter. The order of isotopic mixing rates for organic matter is kerogen > asphalt > oil, which is inverse to their sulfur thermal stability. Asphalt and oil with more refractory sulfur show significantly lower isotopes mixing rates than the kerogen with more labile sulfur. Based on the findings of the present study we suggest that sulfur isotopes mixing can occur from early diagenesis into catagenesis and result in isotopic homogenization of the inorganic and organic reduced sulfur pools.