Influence of wave and sediment dynamics on cordgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina anglica</Emphasis>) growth and sediment accumulation on an exposed intertidal flat

Isolated patches ofSpartina anglica (cordgrass) at two sites on a wave-exposed mid-intertidal flat of the 340 km² Manukau Harbor (Auckland, New Zealand) have developed very differently since being planted in the mid-1970s. Although the two sites are only 0.5 km apart and at the same intertidal elevation,Spartina patches at the easternmost site (site 1) have as much as an order of magnitude higher biomass and accumulated sediment volume thanSpartina patches at site 2. A field experiment was conducted to characterize waves and associated sediment dynamics at each site, which might explain whySpartina patches at the two sites have developed so differently over the past 25 yr or so. Suspended sediments were measured and wave characteristics were inferred from subsurface pressure data measured for 5 wk at bothSpartina sites and at an intermediate location. Bed-orbital speeds and frictional wave-energy dissipation were consistently lower at the easternmost site with the largerSpartina patches. The west-to-east reduction in wave energy is due to the spatial arrangement of theSpartina sites relative to the predominant wind fetches. The wave-energy gradient is maintained by tidal-cycle variations in fetch and bed friction and results in a west-to-east reduction in sand suspension. Silt, which is largely resuspended under southwest winds, is redeposited in the low wave-energy conditions in and around the larger site 1Spartina patches. Shell accumulation bySpartina patches at site 1 occurs infrequently, during southwest winds >10 m s⁻¹ and water depths >0.7 m, when waves are least attenuated by bed friction. Large between-site differences in the growth of and sediment accumulation by theSpartina patch are consistent with the observed wave-energy gradient. The resulting spatial patterns of silt, sand, and shell resuspension and deposition directly influence the rate of sediment accumulation bySpartina patches and the composition of accumulated sediment on this wave-exposed intertidal flat.     

The ECOMAN project: A novel approach to defining sustainable ecosystem function

The ECOMAN was initiated in 2001 by the University of Plymouth, UK, Plymouth Marine Laboratory and the Department of the Environment, Fisheries and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) to address the need for more pragmatic assessment techniques linking environmental degradation with its causes. The primary aim of the project was to develop an evidence-based approach in which suites of easy-to-use, cost-effective and environmentally valid biological responses (biomarkers) could be used together to assess the health of coastal systems through the general condition of individuals. A range of sub-lethal endpoints, chosen to reflect successive levels of biological organisation (molecular, cellular, physiological), was evaluated in common coastal organisms showing different feeding types (filter feeding, grazing, predation) and habitat requirements (estuary, rocky shore). Initially, the suite of biomarkers was used in laboratory studies to determine the relative sensitivities of key species within different functional groups to common contaminants. These results were then validated in field studies performed in a range of ecosystems exhibiting different degrees/signatures of contamination. Here, an example is provided of a field study in the Humber Estuary, UK, which illustrates how multivariate statistical analysis can be used to identify patterns of response to discriminate between contaminated and clean sites. The use of a holistic, integrated approach of this kind is advocated as a practical means of assessing the impact of chemical contamination on organismal health and of ranking the status of marine ecosystems.     

Experiments on δS mixing between organic and inorganic sulfur species during thermal maturation

Reduced sulfur species were studied to constrain isotopic exchange-mixing with synthetic polysulfide cross-linked macromolecules (PCLM), model sulfur containing molecules and natural sulfur-rich kerogen, asphalt and oil of the Dead Sea area. PCLM represents protokerogens that are rich in sulfur and thermally unstable. Mixing rates of PCLM with (added as (NH₄)₂S_(aq)) at low to moderate temperatures (50-200 °C) are rapid. Elemental sulfur and H₂S_(gas) fully mix isotopes with PCLM during pyrolysis conditions at 200 °C. During these reactions significant structural changes of the PCLM occur to form polysulfide dimers, thiolanes and thiophenes. As pyrolysis temperatures or reaction times increase, the PCLM thermal products are transformed to more aromatic sulfur compounds. Isotopic mixing rates increase with increasing pyrolysis temperature and time. Polysulfide bonds (S-S) in the PCLM are responsible for most of these structural and isotopic changes because of their low stability. Conversely, sulfur isotope mixing does not occur between dibenzothiophene (aromatic S) or hexadecanthiol (C-SH) and at 200 °C after 48 h. This shows that rates of sulfur isotope mixing are strongly dependent on the functionality of the sulfur in the organic matter. The order of isotopic mixing rates for organic matter is kerogen > asphalt > oil, which is inverse to their sulfur thermal stability. Asphalt and oil with more refractory sulfur show significantly lower isotopes mixing rates than the kerogen with more labile sulfur. Based on the findings of the present study we suggest that sulfur isotopes mixing can occur from early diagenesis into catagenesis and result in isotopic homogenization of the inorganic and organic reduced sulfur pools.     

Global exposure to river and coastal flooding: Long term trends and changes

Flood damage modelling has traditionally been limited to the local, regional or national scale. Recent flood events, population growth and climate change concerns have increased the need for global methods with both spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper presents a first estimation of global economic exposure to both river and coastal flooding for the period 1970–2050, using two different methods for damage assessment. One method is based on population and the second is based on land-use within areas subject to 1/100 year flood events. On the basis of population density and GDP per capita, we estimate a total global exposure to river and coastal flooding of 46 trillion USD in 2010. By 2050, these numbers are projected to increase to 158 trillion USD. Using a land-use based assessment, we estimated a total flood exposure of 27 trillion USD in 2010. For 2050 we simulate a total exposure of 80 trillion USD. The largest absolute exposure changes between 1970 and 2050 are simulated in North America and Asia. In relative terms we project the largest increases in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. The models also show systematically larger growth in the population living within hazard zones compared to total population growth. While the methods unveil similar overall trends in flood exposure, there are significant differences in the estimates and geographical distribution. These differences result from inherent model characteristics and the varying relationship between population density and the total urban area in the regions of analysis. We propose further research on the modelling of inundation characteristics and flood protection standards, which can complement the methodologies presented in this paper to enable the development of a global flood risk framework.     

Atmospheric circulation and storminess derived from Royal Navy logbooks: 1685 to 1750

This paper is concerned with the use of Royal Navy ships’ logbooks for the period 1685 to 1750, thereby embracing the oldest members of this documentary series that extends to the present day. The geographic range of the undertaking is confined to the English Channel and its western approaches where the abundance of logbooks for this period allows for the abstraction of a daily series of wind force and direction data. These are verified and processed for inclusion in a database from which indices are derived for air circulation patterns based on the frequency of winds from north, east, south and west quarters, and of gale frequency, based on the contemporary terminology of wind force. The methods by which the data are abstracted and processed are described, as is the nature of the raw data and source material. The results provide a uniquely detailed insight into the changing patterns of air circulation over this critical period that marked the transition from the depths of the Little Ice Age in the late seventeenth century. Attention is also drawn to the changing nature of gale frequency, which revealed a notable decrease over the study period. Associations between changing circulation patterns and temperature regimes are also explored.     

Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change

Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.     

Jet breaks at the end of the slow decline phase of Swift GRB light curves

The Swift mission has discovered an intriguing feature of gamma-ray burst (GRBs) afterglows, a phase of shallow decline of the flux in the X-ray and optical light curves. This behaviour is typically attributed to energy injection into the burst ejecta. At some point this phase ends, resulting in a break in the light curve, which is commonly interpreted as the cessation of the energy injection. In a few cases, however, while breaks in the X-ray light curve are observed, optical emission continues its slow flux decline. This behaviour suggests a more complex scenario. In this paper, we present a model that invokes a double component outflow, in which narrowly collimated ejecta are responsible for the X-ray emission while a broad outflow is responsible for the optical emission. The narrow component can produce a jet break in the X-ray light curve at relatively early times, while the optical emission does not break due to its lower degree of collimation. In our model both components are subject to energy injection for the whole duration of the follow-up observations. We apply this model to GRBs with chromatic breaks, and we show how it might change the interpretation of the GRBs canonical light curve. We also study our model from a theoretical point of view, investigating the possible configurations of frequencies and the values of GRB physical parameters allowed in our model.     

History of astronomical discoveries

The wide diversity of routes to astronomical, astrophysical and cosmological discovery is discussed through a number of historical case studies. Prime ingredients for success include new technology, precision observation, extensive databases, capitalising upon discoveries in cognate disciplines, imagination and luck. Being in the right place at the right time is a huge advantage. The changing perspectives on the essential tools for tackling frontier problems and astronomical advance are discussed.     

Expanding the application of the Eu‐oxybarometer to the lherzolitic shergottites and nakhlites: Implications for the oxidation state heterogeneity of the Martian interior

Abstract— Experimentally rehomogenized melt inclusions from the nakhlite Miller Range 03346 (MIL 03346) and the lherzolitic shergottite Allan Hills 77005 (ALH 77005) have been analyzed for their rare earth element (REE) concentrations in order to characterize the early melt compositions of these Martian meteorites and to calculate the oxygen fugacity conditions they crystallized under. D(Eu/Sm)_{pyroxene/melt} values were measured at 0.77 and 1.05 for ALH 77005 and MIL 03346, respectively. These melts and their associated whole rock compositions have similar REE patterns, suggesting that whole rock REE values are representative of those of the early melts and can be used as input into the pyroxene Eu‐oxybarometer for the nakhlites and lherzolitic shergottites. Crystallization fO₂ values of IW + 1.1 (ALH 77005) and IW + 3.2 (MIL 03346) were calculated. Whole rock data from other nakhlites and lherzolitic shergottites was input into the Eu‐oxybarometer to determine their crystallization fO₂ values. The lherzolitic shergottites and nakhlites have fO₂ values that range from IW + 0.4 to 1.6 and from IW + 1.1 to 3.2, respectively. These values are consistent with some previously determined fO₂ estimates and expand the known range of fO₂ values of the Martian interior to four orders of magnitude. The origins of this range are not well constrained. Possible mechanisms for producing this spread in fO₂ values include mineral/melt fractionation, assimilation, shock effects, and magma ocean crystallization processes. Mineral/melt partitioning can result in changes in fO₂ from the start to the finish of crystallization of 2 orders of magnitude. In addition, crystallization of a Martian magma ocean with reasonable initial water content results in oxidized, water‐rich, late‐stage cumulates. Sampling of these oxidized cumulates or interactions between reduced melts and the oxidized material can potentially account for the range of fO₂ values observed in the Martian meteorites.     

Evidence for ocean acidification in the Great Barrier Reef of Australia

Geochemical records preserved in the long-lived carbonate skeleton of corals provide one of the few means to reconstruct changes in seawater pH since the commencement of the industrial era. This information is important in not only determining the response of the surface oceans to ocean acidification from enhanced uptake of CO₂, but also to better understand the effects of ocean acidification on carbonate secreting organisms such as corals, whose ability to calcify is highly pH dependent. Here we report an ∼200 year δ¹¹B isotopic record, extracted from a long-lived Porites coral from the central Great Barrier Reef of Australia. This record covering the period from 1800 to 2004 was sampled at yearly increments from 1940 to the present and 5-year increments prior to 1940. The δ¹¹B isotopic compositions reflect variations in seawater pH, and the δ¹³C changes in the carbon composition of surface water due to fossil fuel burning over this period. In addition complementary Ba/Ca, δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca data was obtained providing proxies for terrestrial runoff, salinity and temperature changes over the past 200 years in this region. Positive thermal ionization mass spectrometry (PTIMS) method was utilized in order to enable the highest precision and most accurate measurements of δ¹¹B values. The internal precision and reproducibility for δ¹¹B of our measurements are better than ±0.2‰ (2σ), which translates to a precision of better than ±0.02 pH units. Our results indicate that the long-term pre-industrial variation of seawater pH in this region is partially related to the decadal-interdecadal variability of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the Pacific. In the periods around 1940 and 1998 there are also rapid oscillations in δ¹¹B compositions equivalent changes in pH of almost 0.5 U. The 1998 oscillation is co-incident with a major coral bleaching event indicating the sensitivity of skeletal δ¹¹B compositions to loss of zooxanthellate symbionts. Importantly, from the 1940s to the present-day, there is a general overall trend of ocean acidification with pH decreasing by about 0.2-0.3 U, the range being dependent on the value assumed for the fractionation factor α_(B3-B4) of the boric acid and borate species in seawater. Correlations of δ¹¹B with δ¹³C during this interval indicate that the increasing trend towards ocean acidification over the past 60 years in this region is the result of enhanced dissolution of CO₂ in surface waters from the rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂, mainly from fossil fuel burning. This suggests that the increased levels of anthropogenic CO₂ in atmosphere has already caused a significant trend towards acidification in the oceans during the past decades. Observations of surprisingly large decreases in pH across important carbonate producing regions, such as the Great Barrier Reef of Australia, raise serious concerns about the impact of Greenhouse gas emissions on coral calcification.