The revival of rural areas in advanced economies: a review of some causes and consequences

Recent years have seen a substantial growth of population in the rural areas of the United States and Western Europe. This is explored with particular reference to census evidence relating to Great Britain. Two sets of explanations are examined. The first relates to the exercise of residential preferences unconstrained by job location, and it is notable that the retired and the otherwise non-employed have increased substantially in numbers over the past 15–20 years. The second explanation focuses on employment relocation. Much resource-based, tertiary and, especially, manufacturing employment has grown in non-metropolitan areas. British and European evidence shows the manufacturing shift to have been substantial and it is suggested that this, coupled with (pre-)retirement migration and associated multiplier developments, may explain much of the counter-urbanisation that we are witnessing. The paper briefly explores some consequence of these trends, relating to the duplication of infrastructure, pressure on rural land and housing, and social change.     

The strengthening East Australian Current, its eddies and biological effects — an introduction and overview

The poleward flowing East Australian Current (EAC) is characterised by its separation from the coast, 100-200 nautical miles north of Sydney, to form the eastward flowing Tasman Front and a southward flowing eddy field. The separation zone greatly influences coastal ecosystems for the relatively narrow continental shelf (only 15-50 km wide), particularly between 32-34°S. In this region the continental shelf has a marked shift in the seasonal temperature-salinity relationship and elevated surface nitrate concentrations. This current parallels the portion of the coast where Australia’s population is concentrated and has a long history of scientific research. However, understanding of physical and biological processes driven by the EAC, particularly in linking circulation to ecosystems, is limited. In this special issue of 16 papers on the EAC, we examine the effects of climatic wind-stress forced ocean dynamics on EAC transport variability and coastal sea level, from ENSO to multi-decadal time scales; eddy formation and structure; fine scale connectivity and larval retention. Comparisons with the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current on Australia’s west coast show differences in ecosystem productivity that can be attributed to the underlying physics in each region. On average there is double the chlorophyll a concentration on the east coast than the west. In comparison to the Leeuwin, the EAC may have less local retention of larvae and act as a partial barrier to onshore transport, which may also be related to the local spawning and early life history of small pelagic fish on each coast. Inter-annual variations in the EAC transport produce a detectable sea-level signal in Sydney Harbour, which could provide a useful fisheries index as does the Fremantle sea level and Leeuwin Current relationship. The EAC’s eddy structure and formation by the EAC are examined. A particular cold-core eddy is shown to have a “tilt” towards the coast, and that during a rotation the flow of particles may rise up to the euphotic zone and then down beneath. In a warm-core eddy, surface flooding is shown to produce a new shallower surface mixed layer and promote algal growth. An assessment of plankton data from 1938-1942 showed that the local, synoptic conditions had to be incorporated before any comparison with the present. There are useful relationships of water mass characteristics in the Tasman Sea and separation zone with larval fish diversity and abundance, as well as with long-line fisheries. These fisheries-pelagic habitat relationships are invaluable for fisheries management, as well as for climate change assessments.There is further need to examine the EAC influence on rainfall, storm activity, dust deposition, and on the movements by fish, sharks and whales. The Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) has provided new infrastructure to determine the changing behaviour of the EAC and its bio-physical interaction with the coasts and estuaries. The forecasting and hindcasting capability developed under the Bluelink project has provided a new tool for data synthesis and dynamical analysis. The impact of a strengthening EAC and how it influences the livelihoods of over half the Australian population, from Brisbane to Sydney, Hobart and Melbourne, is just being realised.     

Large-scale floodplain modelling

A two-dimensional horizontal finite element numerical model (RMA-2) was applied to a 24 km river channel-floodplain reach in West Germany. Initial results indicate that finite element schemes may successfully estimate inundation in large-scale floodplain applications. Potentially, the resulting detailed velocity vector distributions and identification of inundation zones throughout storm events could provide an insight into the present day sedimentary environment on the floodplain.     

Resolution Sensitivity and Scaling of Large-Eddy Simulations of the Stable Boundary Layer

Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the continuously turbulent quasi-equilibrium stable boundary layer (SBL) are conducted with grid lengths in the range of 12.5 m to 2 m, in order to explore resolution sensitivity, and determine at what point grid convergence occurs. The structure of the mean potential temperature, winds, and turbulent fluxes varies significantly over this resolution range. The highest resolution simulations show a significant degree of convergence. The dimensionless momentum diffusivity asymptotes to a value of 0.06, corresponding to a limiting flux Richardson number of 0.15.Using the converged simulations, some scaling hypotheses underpinning first-order and second-order closure models are revisited. The effective Richardson number stability functions of the LES are compared with the forms often used in numerical weather prediction (NWP). The mixing implied by the LES is less than that used in NWP. The commonly used similarity profiles for heat and momentum fluxes, and the scalings for dissipation and pressure covariances are compared with the LES. This information could provide guidance for the next generation of SBL parametrization schemes.     

Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

The geology of Australian Mars analogue sites

Australia has numerous landforms and features, some unique, that provide a useful reference for interpreting the results of spacecraft orbiting Mars and exploring the martian surface. Examples of desert landforms, impact structures, relief inversion, long-term landscape evolution and hydrothermal systems that are relevant to Mars are outlined and the relevant literature reviewed. The Mars analogue value of Australia's acid lakes, hypersaline embayments and mound spring complexes is highlighted along with the Pilbara region, where the oldest convincing evidence of life guides exploration for early life on Mars. The distinctive characteristics of the Arkaroola Mars Analogue Region are also assessed and opportunities for future work in Australia are outlined.     

Application of biomarkers for improving risk assessments of chemicals under the Water Framework Directive: a case study

To answer the requirement of the European Commission's Water Framework Directive (WFD) for biological-effects endpoints to classify the ecological health of aquatic ecosystems, we propose the biomarker response index (BRI). The BRI, based on a suite of biomarkers at different levels of biological response at the individual level, provides an integrated relative measure of the general health status of coastal invertebrates. Using the BRI, the health of mussels (Mytilus edulis) from 10 estuaries classified by the Environment Agency of England and Wales under the WFD was compared. Eight sites were healthier than predicted and two showed a similar health status to that of the predicted point-source pollution risk classification. Results indicate that the BRI offers a potential measure of organism health that can be used in monitoring under the WFD as an additional aid to reduce uncertainty in defining risk classification and to provide better evidence of existing impact.     

Ennerdale new town,South Africa: The social limits to urban design

Construction of the new town of Ennerdale from the mid 1970s occurred within the context of austerity and a concomitant urban policy reoriented toward the privatisation of working-class housing provision. The new town project at Ennerdale presents an opportunity for analysing institutional intervention from the angle of urban design and spatial planning. The financial and planning mechanisms through which the state constructed Ennerdale are examined and the social effects of the new town project are assessed.