Seismicity patterns associated with the September 10th, 2008 Qeshm earthquake, South Iran

The b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation and the standard deviate, Z, were calculated to investigate the temporal and spatial variations in seismicity patterns associated with the September 10th, 2008 (Mw?=?6.1) Qeshm earthquake. The temporal variations of b value illustrate a distinct dramatic drop preceding the Qeshm earthquake, and the spatial changes in b value highlight a zone with an abnormally low b value around the epicenter of this event. The cumulative number and Z value as a function of time show a precursory seismic quiescence preceding the 2008 Qeshm earthquake that observed for 1?year in a circle with R?=?50?km around its epicenter. The spatial distribution map of the standard deviate, Z, also exhibits an obvious precursory seismic quiescence region before the 2008 Qeshm event around the epicenter of this event. Interestingly, the precursory seismic quiescence region is approximately consistent with low b value anomaly region, and both have E–W to NE–SW trend. These two precursory anomalies took place in relatively large regions, which were possibly relevant to the preparation zone of the 2008 Qeshm event.     

Numerical simulation of crack propagation in layered formations

In the present study, a boundary element method based on the higher order displacement discontinuity formulation is presented to solve the general problem of hydraulic fracture propagation in layered formations. Displacement collocation technique is employed to model the higher order displacement variation along the crack and the special crack tip element near its ends. The hydraulic fracture propagation and its interaction with the layer interface in non-homogenous rock materials are studied by the proposed semi-analytical (hybridized boundary element-boundary collocation) method. The maximum tangential stress criterion (or σ-criterion) of fracture mechanics considering different elastic constants (Young modulus and Poisson’s ratio) is used to obtain the fracture path. The fracture propagation from stiff to soft and soft to stiff media for cracks having different inclination angles is modeled, and the effects of elastic constants on the hydraulic fracture propagation is studied. The results show that if the hydraulic fracture originates in the stiffer layer, its capability to cross the layer increases and is vice versa for the softer material. The comparison of the results gained from the numerical method with those in the literature show a good performance of the method in the case of propagation of hydraulic fracture in layered formations.     

Mapping groundwater recharge potential zones in arid region using GIS and Landsat approaches,southeast Tunisia

The rapid growth of population and agricultural and industrial activities has caused an increase in demand on the Jeffara aquifers of Gabes (southeast Tunisia). In fact, the over-pumping of this aquifer system has resulted in water-level declines ranging from 0.25 to 1 m/year during the past three decades. The aim of this study is to identify favourable artificial recharge sites of this aquifer system based on the combined use of remotely sensed data, a geographic information system (GIS), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) product and a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) technique. The delineation of artificial recharge zones shows high to moderate potential for groundwater recharge (40%) in the Gabes region, with high precision of good potential proposed sites. Recharge processes need to account for natural conditions and ecosystems.     

Streamflow trend analysis by considering autocorrelation structure,long-term persistence,and Hurst coefficient in a semi-arid region of Iran

Due to the substantial decrease of water resources as well as the increase in demand and climate change phenomenon, analyzing the trend of hydrological parameters is of paramount importance. In the present study, investigations were carried out to identify the trends in streamflow at 20 hydrometric stations and 11 rainfall gauging stations located in Karkheh River Basin (KRB), Iran, in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales during the last 38 years from 1974 to 2011. This study has been conducted using two versions of Mann–Kendall tests, including (i) Mann–Kendall test by considering all the significant autocorrelation structure (MK3) and (ii) Mann–Kendall test by considering LTP and Hurst coefficient (MK4). The results indicate that the KRB streamflow trend (using both test versions) has decreased in all three time scales. There is a significant decreasing trend in 78 and 73 % of the monthly cases using the MK3 and MK4 tests, respectively, while these percentages changed to 80 and 70 % on seasonal and annual time scales, respectively. Investigation of the trend line slope using Theil–Sen’s estimator showed a negative trend in all three time scales. The use of MK4 test instead of the MK3 test has caused a decrease in the significance level of Mann–Kendall Z-statistic values. The results of the precipitation trends indicate both increasing and decreasing trends. Also, the correlation between the area average streamflow and precipitation shows a strong correlation in annual time scale in the KRB.     

Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955–2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.     

Preparation of frost atlas using different interpolation methods in a semiarid region of south of Iran

In this research, suitability of different kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW) methods in estimating occurrence date of frost was evaluated. Data included minimum daily air temperature values from 27 meteorological stations of Fars province in southern Iran from 18 to 45 years. Data ranges of 0 to ?1.5, ?1.5 to ?3 and below ?3°C were considered as mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Starting with the first day of autumn, iso-occurrence days for the frost intensities and occurrence probabilities (25%, 50%, 75% and 90%) were estimated using ordinary kriging, cokriging, residual kriging type 1 (RK1), residual kriging type 2 (RK2), universal kriging and IDW methods. In these models, the errors of estimated frost intensities at different probabilities were lowest in the RK2 model, but lack of establishment of spatial structure due to long distance between stations caused the predictions not to be acceptable in some cases. In a proposed method (modified inverse distance weighted, MIDW), the trend between the first and last days of frost occurrence with earth elevation was removed, and the reminder values were estimated by (IDW) method. Although, the errors for estimated frost dates by MIDW and RK2 methods were the same, but the MIDW method did not have the spatial establishment shortcoming. Furthermore, the simplicity and practicality of the MIDW method makes it a reasonable selection.     

Simulation of relationship between river discharge and sediment yield in the semi-arid river watersheds

Complex and variable nature of the river sediment yield caused many problems in estimating the long-term sediment yield and problems input into the reservoirs. Sediment Rating Curves (SRCs) are generally used to estimate the suspended sediment load of the rivers and drainage watersheds. Since the regression equations of the SRCs are obtained by logarithmic retransformation and have a little independent variable in this equation, they also overestimate or underestimate the true sediment load of the rivers. To evaluate the bias correction factors in Kalshor and Kashafroud watersheds, seven hydrometric stations of this region with suitable upstream watershed and spatial distribution were selected. Investigation of the accuracy index (ratio of estimated sediment yield to observed sediment yield) and the precision index of different bias correction factors of FAO, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE), Smearing, and Minimum-Variance Unbiased Estimator (MVUE) with LSD test showed that FAO coefficient increases the estimated error in all of the stations. Application of MVUE in linear and mean load rating curves has not statistically meaningful effects. QMLE and smearing factors increased the estimated error in mean load rating curve, but that does not have any effect on linear rating curve estimation.