Simultaneous estimation of cross-validation errors in least squares collocation applied for statistical testing and evaluation of the noise variance components

The cross-validation technique is a popular method to assess and improve the quality of prediction by least squares collocation (LSC). We present a formula for direct estimation of the vector of cross-validation errors (CVEs) in LSC which is much faster than element-wise CVE computation. We show that a quadratic form of CVEs follows Chi-squared distribution. Furthermore, a posteriori noise variance factor is derived by the quadratic form of CVEs. In order to detect blunders in the observations, estimated standardized CVE is proposed as the test statistic which can be applied when noise variances are known or unknown. We use LSC together with the methods proposed in this research for interpolation of crustal subsidence in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that after detection and removing outliers, the root mean square (RMS) of CVEs and estimated noise standard deviation are reduced about 51 and 59%, respectively. In addition, RMS of LSC prediction error at data points and RMS of estimated noise of observations are decreased by 39 and 67%, respectively. However, RMS of LSC prediction error on a regular grid of interpolation points covering the area is only reduced about 4% which is a consequence of sparse distribution of data points for this case study. The influence of gross errors on LSC prediction results is also investigated by lower cutoff CVEs. It is indicated that after elimination of outliers, RMS of this type of errors is also reduced by 19.5% for a 5 km radius of vicinity. We propose a method using standardized CVEs for classification of dataset into three groups with presumed different noise variances. The noise variance components for each of the groups are estimated using restricted maximum-likelihood method via Fisher scoring technique. Finally, LSC assessment measures were computed for the estimated heterogeneous noise variance model and compared with those of the homogeneous model. The advantage of the proposed method is the reduction in estimated noise levels for those groups with the fewer number of noisy data points.     

Assessment of the Pacific decadal oscillation’s contribution to the occurrence of local torrential rainfall in north China

On 21–22 July 2012, torrential rains hit North China, with the daily precipitation record at Beijing station reaching 160.6 mm; this event is named the Beijing 7–21 case. This paper assesses the likelihood of the occurrence of local torrential rains, such as the Beijing 7–21 case, from the perspective of climate variability. In particular, the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is assessed. There were five extreme events, with daily precipitation records equal to or larger than 160.6 mm, at Beijing station during the period 1951–2012; all of these events happened during negative phases of the PDO. The present analysis indicates that precipitation events more extreme than the Beijing 7–21 case should happen more than once per decade during negative phases of the PDO, but only about once every four decades during positive PDO phases. The negative phase of the PDO is found to be associated with a much greater probability of daily records of southerly winds in North China during summer. Strong southerly summer monsoons are deemed favorable for increasing the occurrence of local extreme rainfall over North China.     

Review on physical models of lunar brightness temperature

Brightness temperature is a main index to reflect the energy of microwave radiation of an object. Using lunar brightness temperature data, physical properties of lunar regolith, such as thickness, heat flow and dielectric permittivity, could be interpreted. There are two methods to study brightness temperature distribution of the moon: the first is used to measure lunar brightness temperature by radio observation or spaceborne microwave radiometers, and the second is used to simulate calculation by the physical model. On the basis of the measurements of lunar brightness temperature in the history, this study analyzed the main physical model of lunar brightness temperature, also including its theory and influence factors. The authors concluded that surface and subsurface temperatures of the moon, dielectric properties and layered structure of lunar regolith were the main factors affecting the global brightness temperature of the moon. These factors should be quantified in detail in the future research.     

Two and Half Dimensional Simulation of Ridge Effects on the Ground Motion Characteristics

— Seismic responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models were simulated to study the ridge effects on the ground motion characteristics. The range of ridge slope from 19.98° to 45° was considered to produce a possible set of generalized results. 2.5-D modeling based on parsimonious staggered grid approximation of elastodynamic wave equations was adopted in simulations. Computed results reveal an increase of amplitude of incoming waves with both elevation and the slope of the ridge. Further, the characteristics of surface waves are highly ridge slope dependent. The analysis of responses of weathered and non-weathered ridge models reveals that ridge has caused a strong generation of surface waves near its top. The surface waves are not dominating on the top of the ridge but at some lower elevation. The increase of weathering of ridge further intensified the ridge effect. Analysis in frequency domain, based on spectral ratio method, does not indicate any pattern in the spectral amplification factor and is very much sensitive to slope, source focal mechanism and location. However, on an average there is a continuous decrease of amplification with slope in the vertical component and increase in the transverse component, and it is increasing in the radial component up to slope =38.0° and thereafter decreasing.     

Modern modes of provenance and dispersal of terrigenous sediments in the North Pacific and Bering Sea: implications and perspectives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions

During expedition 202 aboard the RV Sonne in 2009, 39 seafloor surface sediment sites were sampled over a wide sector of the North Pacific and adjoining Bering Sea. The data served to infer land–ocean linkages of terrigenous sediment supply in terms of major sources and modes of sediment transport within an over-regional context. This is based on an integrated approach dealing with grain-size analysis, bulk mineralogy and clay mineralogy in combination with statistical data evaluation (end-member modelling of grain-size data, fuzzy cluster analysis of mineralogical data). The findings on clay mineralogy served to update those of earlier work extracted from the literature. Today, two processes of terrigenous sediment supply prevail in the study area: far-distance aeolian sediment supply to the pelagic North Pacific, and hemipelagic sediment dispersal from nearby land sources via ocean currents along the continental margins and island arcs. Aeolian particles show the finest grain sizes (clay and fine silt), whereas hemipelagic sediments have high abundances of coarse silt. Exposed sites on seamounts and the continental slope are partly swept by strong currents, leading to residual enrichment of fine sand. Four sediment sources can be distinguished on the basis of distinct index minerals revealed by statistical data analysis: dust plumes from central Asia (quartz, illite), altered materials from the volcanic regions of Kamchatka and the Aleutian Arc (smectite), detritus from the Alaskan Cordillera (chlorite, hornblende), and fluvial detritus from far-eastern Siberia and the Alaska mainland (quartz, feldspar, illite). These findings confirm those of former studies but considerably expand the geographic range of this suite of proxies as far south as 39°N in the open North Pacific. The present integrated methodological approach proved useful in identifying the major modern processes of terrigenous sediment supply to the study region. This aspect deserves attention in the selection of sediment core sites for future palaeoenvironmental reconstructions related to aeolian and glacial dynamics, as well as the recognition of palaeo-ocean circulation patterns in general.     

Development mechanism for the landslide at Xinlu Village,Chongqing, China

Due to the continuous and intense rainfall from June 26 to 28, 2016, Xinlu Village in Ganshui Town, Qijiang District, Chongqing, experienced a unitary-slip landslide at approximately UTC+8 19:30 on June 28. This landslide disrupted the Chuan-Qian railway and damaged four residential buildings. To analyze and rehabilitate the landslide, the engineering geology, hydrological conditions, and deformation instability mechanism of this landslide were investigated and comprehensively analyzed based on an in situ survey, geophysical drilling, and a laboratory quick-shearing test. The results show that the landslide is a typical gradual progressive landslide.     

Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) for seismic site characterization using 2D genetic algorithm at Bahrah area,Wadi Fatima,Saudi Arabia

The present study deals with the seismic site classification of Bahrah area, Wadi Fatima, to characterize the local site conditions. The dynamic behavior of sediments was studied by the application of surface wave inversion. The multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) shallow geophysical technique was utilized for site classification. MASW survey was carried out at 66 sites along with 13 seismic refraction profiles at suitable localities. MASW and seismic refraction profiles were processed and compared with the available borehole data. The integration of MASW techniques with seismic refraction and borehole data progressively enhanced the subsurface visualization and reliability of the shear wave velocity estimation in the subsurface in the study area. The subsurface shear-wave velocity model was achieved by the solution of an inverse problem-based dispersion of surface waves and propagation in a vertically heterogeneous medium. The 2D genetic algorithm was employed for the inversion of dispersion curves to obtain velocity and thickness of subsurface layers. The depth to engineering bedrock and velocity of shear waves in the first 30 m was deciphered and mapped. The depth of bedrock in study area varies from 4 to 30 m, and V _{S 30} ranges from 320 to 800 m/s. The most of study area falls in B and C class categories in addition to few sites of D class according to the NEHRP guidelines.     

Geoecology of ecosystem recovery at an inactive coal mine site,New Zealand

Ecological restoration of the Wangaloa coal mine in southern New Zealand is hindered by a range of geoecological factors. The site has some substrate acidification (down to pH 1) and acid rock drainage with discharge waters initially down to pH 4, although this has since risen to ca. pH 6. Surface and ground waters develop elevated sulfate (up to 700 mg/kg) during oxidation of pyrite in coal and quartz in waste rock. Coal has elevated boron content (up to 450 mg/kg) and surface waters on coal-rich waste rock have up to 6 mg/L dissolved boron. Evaporation causes formation of salt encrustations dominated by gypsum with minor boron salts. Boron is bioavailable and may be at toxic levels (>200 mg/kg) in some plants. Quartz-rich waste rock is readily eroded, and develops a cm-scale low-nutrient quartz pebble armouring layer with low water retention properties. All waste rocks including loess siltstone have low nutrient contents, and low moisture retention properties, that are barely sufficient for plant establishment. Native plants introduced to the site during rehabilitation have grown on loess substrate (up to fivefold increase in height over 3 years), with poor or no growth on coal-rich and quartz-rich substrates. In contrast, natural colonisation of manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) has been most effective at revegetation on even the most hostile substrates. This natural revegetation has been facilitated by islands of manuka established accidentally during 60 years of mining history. Manuka from local genetic stock is most viable for this revegetation, and introduced manuka seedlings have had a 70% mortality rate. Natural plant colonisation is the key step in overall ecosystem recovery, and invertebrates rapidly colonise beneath new shrubs irrespective of the nature of the substrate from vegetation islands that have high invertebrate numbers and species richness.     

Lithological and geochemical record of mining-induced changes in sediments from Macquarie Harbour,southwest Tasmania,Australia

Macquarie Harbour in southwest Tasmania, Australia, has been affected severely by the establishment of mines in nearby Queenstown in the 1890s. As well as heavy metal-laden acid rock drainage from the Mount Lyell mine area, over 100 Mt of mine tailings and slag were discharged into the Queen and Ring Rivers, with an estimated 10 Mt of mine tailings building a delta of ca. 2.5 km² and ca. 10 Mt of fine tailings in the harbour beyond the delta. Coring of sediments throughout Macquarie Harbour indicated that mine tailings accreted most rapidly close to the King River delta source with a significant reduction in thickness of tailings and heavy metal contamination with increasing distance from the King River source. Close to the King River delta the mine tailings are readily discriminated from the background estuarine sediments on the basis of visual logging of the core (laminations, colour), sediment grain size, sediment magnetic susceptibility and elemental geochemistry, especially concentrations of the heavy metals Cu, Zn and Pb. The high heavy metal concentrations are demonstrated by the very high contamination factors (CF > 6) for Cu and Zn, with CF values mostly >50 for Cu for the mine-impacted sediments. Although the addition of mine waste into the King River catchment has ceased, the catchment continues to be a source of these heavy metals due to acid rock drainage and remobilisation of mine waste in storage in the river banks, river bed and delta. The addition of heavy metals to the harbour sourced from the Mount Lyell mines preceded the advent of direct tailings disposal into the Queen River in 1915 with the metals probably provided by acid rock drainage from the Mount Lyell mining area.