Stochastic methods for safety assessment of the flood defense system in the Scheldt Estuary of the Netherlands

In this study, we address the effective method to apply a novel reliability method integrated with finite element models to the safety assessment of pilot site Scheldt in the Netherlands. This site was considered as one of the three main pilot sites in Europe to assess the application of newly suggested techniques in order to reduce and manage the flood risk in the Floodsite project. , 2004–2009). The novel method of dynamic bounds (DB) is applied to this site after a successful experience in (Rajabalinejad in Reliability methods for finite element models, 1 edn. IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2009). In this study, the bi-functional response of the finite element model is considered, and the dimensional uncertainty is defined presenting the expected uncertainty for a certain dimension in the DB method. The uncertainty is used as a judgment tool to choose the dimension for the DB method for the desired accuracy. The results obtained by applying this technique are presented in this paper.     

Study of pore pressure variation during liquefaction using two constitutive models for sand

Numerical analyses of liquefiable sand are presented in this paper. Liquefaction phenomenon is an undrained response of saturated sandy soils when they are subjected to static or dynamic loads. A fully coupled dynamic computer code is developed to predict the liquefaction potential of a saturated sandy layer. Coupled dynamic field equations of extended Biot's theory with u–P formulation are used to determine the responses of pore fluid and soil skeleton. Generalized Newmark method is employed for integration in time. The soil behavior is modelled by two constitutive models; a critical state two-surface plasticity model, and a densification model. A class ‘B’ analysis of a centrifuge experiment is performed to simulate the dynamic response of level ground sites. The results of the numerical analyses demonstrate the capability of the critical sate two-surface plasticity model in producing pore pressures that are consistent with observations of the behavior of liquefiable sand in the centrifuge test.     

Unsupported advance length in tunnels constructed using New Austrian Tunnelling Method and ground surface settlement

Tunnels constructed using New Austrian Tunnelling Method (NATM) are always based on certain round (unsupported) advance lengths, after which, the temporary lining is placed. The settlement of the ground surface resulting from such construction is of high significance in design and practice. The existing data in this respect, however, is scarce. It is the aim of this paper to propose a semi‐analytical procedure based on three‐dimensional finite element analyses to predict the maximum surface settlement of the ground in NATM tunnels under different combinations of tunnel diameter, overburden depth, round length and soil and lining properties. The comparison of the results with three case histories of real tunnels reveals reasonable accuracy of the present solution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deformation analysis of the Lake Urmia causeway (LUC) embankments in northwest Iran: insights from multi-sensor interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data and finite element modeling (FEM)

This paper presents deformation analysis of Lake Urmia causeway (LUC) embankments in northwest Iran using observations from interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and finite element model (FEM) simulation. 58 SAR images including 10 ALOS, 30 Envisat and 18 TerraSAR-X are used to assess settlement of the embankments during 2003–2013. The interferometric dataset includes 140 differential interferograms which are processed using InSAR time series technique of small baseline subset approach. The results show a clear indication of large deformation on the embankments with peak amplitude of \(>\) 50 mm/year in 2003–2010, increasing to \(>\!\!80\)  mm/year in 2012–2013 in the line of sight (LOS) direction from ground to the satellite. 2D decomposition of InSAR observations from Envisat and ALOS satellites that overlap in the years 2007–2010 shows that the rate of the vertical settlement and horizontal motion is not uniform along the embankments; Both eastern and western embankments show significant vertical motion, while horizontal motion plays a more significant role in eastern embankment than western embankment. The InSAR results are then used to simulate deformation using FEM at two cross-sections at the distance of 4 and 9 km from the most western edge of the LUC for which detailed stratigraphy data are available. Results suggest that consolidation due to dissipation of excess pore pressure in embankments can satisfactory predict settlement of the LUC embankments. Our numerical modeling indicates that nearly half of the consolidation since the construction time of the causeway 30 years ago has been done.     

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.     

The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations

A recently developed Bayesian interpolation method (BI) and its application to safety assessment of a flood defense structure are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMC) that has been proposed in (Rajabalinejad 2009) to develop a weighted logical dependence between neighboring points. The concept of global uncertainty is adequately explained and different uncertainty association models (UAMs) are presented for linking the local and global uncertainty. Based on the global uncertainty, a simplified approach is introduced. By applying the global uncertainty, we apply the Guassian error estimation to general models and the Generalized Beta (GB) distribution to monotonic models. Our main objective in this research is to simplify the newly developed BMC method and demonstrate that it can dramatically improve the simulation efficiency by using prior information from outcomes of the preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for the BI method geared to multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model, and apply the coupled models to the reliability assessment of a flood defense for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans.     

Modeling cyclic shearing of sands in the semifluidized state

Liquefaction is associated with the loss of mean effective stress and increase of the pore water pressure in saturated granular materials due to their contractive tendency under cyclic shear loading. The loss of mean effective stress is linked to loss of grain contacts, bringing the granular material to a “semifluidized state” and leading to development and accumulation of large cyclic shear strains. Constitutive modeling of the cyclic stress-strain response in earthquake-induced liquefaction and post-liquefaction is complex and yet very important for stress-deformation and performance-based analysis of sand deposits. A new state internal variable named strain liquefaction factor is introduced that evolves at low mean effective stresses, and its constitutive role is to reduce the plastic shear stiffness and dilatancy while maintaining the same plastic volumetric strain rate in the semifluidized state. This new constitutive ingredient is added to an existing critical state compatible, bounding surface plasticity reference model, that is well established for constitutive modeling of cyclic response of sands in the pre-liquefaction state. The roles of the key components of the proposed formulation are examined in a series of sensitivity analyses. Their combined effects in improving the performance of the reference model are examined by simulating undrained cyclic simple shear tests on Ottawa sand, with focus on reproducing the increasing shear strain amplitude as well as its saturation in the post-liquefaction response.     

Experimental investigation into rockfill dam failure initiation by overtopping

Rockfill is the most abundant building material. It is often used for water retention under different contexts, such as dams, embankments or drainage systems. Climate change may cause water levels to rise in reservoirs. As rockfill structures are not able to resist strong overtopping flow, rising water levels will constitute a danger for rockfill dam stability as well as for people living nearby. This work is aimed at the development of an empirical formula that enables calculation of the critical water level of overflow at the crest from the geometrical and physical parameters of a dam. To achieve these objectives, several experimental tests on a rockfill dam model with two different impervious cores, moraine with a sand filter and an empty wooden formwork, were conducted in a hydraulic channel at the hydro-environmental laboratory at École Polytechnique de Montréal. The purpose of these tests was to study the initiation of a riprap failure under the influence of different variables, such as rock size, riprap bank, downstream side slope and bed slope. Results showed linear trends between the critical water level and both the downstream side slope and bed slope. Also, a power trend was observed between the critical level and riprap grain size. A formula that gives the critical overtopping water level was developed from these results.     

Collaborative personalized multi‐criteria wayfinding for wheelchair users in outdoors

While finding the optimal route for users with physical disabilities and personalizing routes for each user, on the one hand, and collaborative wayfinding, on the other hand, have been addressed in the pedestrian navigation systems literature, there has not been much research on combining the two activities. The problem associated with wayfinding approaches solely based on information about network segments and personal preferences is that the information about segments in the database may not, correctly and/or adequately address user preferences. The problem associated with wayfinding approaches solely based on the ratings given to routes by wheelchair users is the lack of rates (or scores) for all possible routes between all possible origin‐destination pairs in the network. This article discusses an approach to combine these two approaches for wayfinding to augment each other's shortcomings. To evaluate the personalized wayfinding approach, we utilize a route index, called a comparison index. The results show that with a P‐value of 9%, the routes obtained from our approach are more accessible than the routes obtained from another approach developed in another study. To evaluate the collaborative wayfinding approach, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted which reflects the updates in routes as users' feedbacks become available.     

Estimating trends of the Mediterranean Sea level changes from tide gauge and satellite altimetry data (1993-2015)

The impact of climate change on sea level has received a great deal of attention by scientists worldwide. In this context, the problem of sea levels on global and regional scales have been analyzed in a number of studies based on tide gauges observations and satellite altimetry measurements. This study focuses on trend estimates from 18 high-quality tide gauge stations along the Mediterranean Sea coast. The seasonal Mann-Kendall test was run at a 5% significance level for each of the 18 stations for the period of 1993-2015 (satellite altimetry era). The results of this test indicate that the trends for 17 stations were statistically significant and showed an increase (no significant trend was observed only at one station). The rates of sea level change for the 17 stations that exhibit significant trends, estimated using seasonal Sen's approach, range after correction for Vertical Land Motion (VLM) from 1.48 to 8.72 mm/a for the period 1993-2015. Furthermore, the magnitude of change at the location of each tide gauge station was estimated using the satellite altimetry measurements. Thus, the results obtained agree with those from the tide-gauge data analysis.