Stochastic methods for safety assessment of the flood defense system in the Scheldt Estuary of the Netherlands

In this study, we address the effective method to apply a novel reliability method integrated with finite element models to the safety assessment of pilot site Scheldt in the Netherlands. This site was considered as one of the three main pilot sites in Europe to assess the application of newly suggested techniques in order to reduce and manage the flood risk in the Floodsite project. , 2004–2009). The novel method of dynamic bounds (DB) is applied to this site after a successful experience in (Rajabalinejad in Reliability methods for finite element models, 1 edn. IOS Press, Amsterdam, 2009). In this study, the bi-functional response of the finite element model is considered, and the dimensional uncertainty is defined presenting the expected uncertainty for a certain dimension in the DB method. The uncertainty is used as a judgment tool to choose the dimension for the DB method for the desired accuracy. The results obtained by applying this technique are presented in this paper.     

Study of pore pressure variation during liquefaction using two constitutive models for sand

Numerical analyses of liquefiable sand are presented in this paper. Liquefaction phenomenon is an undrained response of saturated sandy soils when they are subjected to static or dynamic loads. A fully coupled dynamic computer code is developed to predict the liquefaction potential of a saturated sandy layer. Coupled dynamic field equations of extended Biot's theory with u–P formulation are used to determine the responses of pore fluid and soil skeleton. Generalized Newmark method is employed for integration in time. The soil behavior is modelled by two constitutive models; a critical state two-surface plasticity model, and a densification model. A class ‘B’ analysis of a centrifuge experiment is performed to simulate the dynamic response of level ground sites. The results of the numerical analyses demonstrate the capability of the critical sate two-surface plasticity model in producing pore pressures that are consistent with observations of the behavior of liquefiable sand in the centrifuge test.     

Geochemical constraints on the provenance of Oligocene–Miocene siliciclastic deposits (Zivah Formation) of NW Iran: implications for the tectonic evolution of the Caucasus

In this study, the whole-rock geochemistry of 35 Oligocene–Miocene sandstone and shale samples from the Zivah Formation, Moghan area (NW Iran) were collected and analyzed for evaluation of their provenance, tectonic setting and the intensity of paleo-weathering. Low to moderate values of the chemical index of alteration (mean CIA?=?53/68 for sandstones/shales) and relatively high values of index of compositional variability (mean ICV?=?1.23/1.08 for sandstones/shales) suggest weak chemical weathering and an immature source. These results support for the semi-arid and semi-humid paleoclimate conditions in the source area. The geochemistry results reveal that the sediments were deposited in a basin related to the island arc and active continental margin tectonic settings, probably indicating the time of initial collision between Arabia and Eurasia. The enrichment of Cr, Ni and V in the sandstone and shales are consistent with mafic input from the source area. However, La/Th vs. Hf and La/Sc vs. Co/Th plots reveal mixed source of felsic and intermediate volcanic rocks. The data indicate that the sediments most likely originated from a mixture of mafic, intermediate and felsic igneous source areas, possibly as the erosional products of localized topography of the Talysh and the Lesser Caucasus mountains (south to southwest), created by compression in the Moghan region during the syn-collisional development of the Caucasus.     

High‐frequency streamflow acquisition and bed level/flow angle estimates in a mountainous river using shallow‐water acoustic tomography

The acquisition of reliable discharge estimates is crucial in hydrological studies. This study demonstrates a promising acoustic method for measuring streamflow at high sampling rate for a long period using the fluvial acoustic tomography system (FATS). The FATS recently emerged as an innovative technique for continuous measurements of streamflow. In contrast to the traditional point/transect measurements of discharge, the FATS enables the depth‐averaged and range‐averaged flow velocity along the ray path to be measured in a fraction of a second. The field test was conducted in a shallow gravel‐bed river (0.9 m deep under low‐flow conditions, 115 m wide) for 1 month. The parameters (stream direction and bottom elevation) required for calculating the streamflow were deduced by a nonlinear regression to the discharge data from the well‐established rating curve. The cross‐sectional average velocities were automatically calculated from the acoustic data, which were collected on both riverbanks every 30 s. The FATS was connected to the internet so that the real‐time flow data could be obtained. The FATS captured discharge variations at a cut‐off frequency of approximately 70 day^?1. The stream exhibited temporal discharge changes at multiple time scales ranging from a few tens of minutes to days. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in western Serbia using hybrid support vector regression (SVR) with GWO,BAT and COA algorithms

In this study, we developed multiple hybrid machine-learning models to address parameter optimization limitations and enhance the spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility models. We created a geographic information system database, and our analysis results were used to prepare a landslide inventory map containing 359 landslide events identified from Google Earth, aerial photographs, and other validated sources. A support vector regression (SVR) machine-learning model was used to divide the landslide inventory into training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets. The landslide susceptibility map was produced using 14 causative factors. We applied the established gray wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm, bat algorithm (BA), and cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA) to fine-tune the parameters of the SVR model to improve its predictive accuracy. The resultant hybrid models, SVR-GWO, SVR-BA, and SVR-COA, were validated in terms of the area under curve (AUC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The AUC values for the SVR-GWO (0.733), SVR-BA (0.724), and SVR-COA (0.738) models indicate their good prediction rates for landslide susceptibility modeling. SVR-COA had the greatest accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.21687, and SVR-BA had the least accuracy, with an RMSE of 0.23046. The three optimized hybrid models outperformed the SVR model (AUC = 0.704, RMSE = 0.26689), confirming the ability of metaheuristic algorithms to improve model performance.     

Combination of Precise Leveling and InSAR Data to Constrain Source Parameters of the Mw = 6.5, 26 December 2003 Bam Earthquake

We used new precise leveling data acquired 40 days after the Bam earthquake in combination with radar interferometry observations from both ascending and descending orbits to investigate static deformation associated with the 2003 Bam earthquake. We invert this geodetic data set to gain insight into the fault geometry and slip distribution of the rupture. The best-fitting dislocation model is a steeply east-dipping right-lateral strike-slip fault that has a size of 11 by 8 km and strikes N2°W. We find that such smooth geometry fits available geodetic data better than previously proposed models for this earthquake. Our distributed slip model indicates a maximum strike slip of 3 m occurring about 3 to 5 km deep. The slip magnitude and depth of faulting taper to the north, where the fault approaches the Bam city. Inclusion of crustal layering increases the amount of maximum slip inferred at depth by about 4%.     

Stochastic-fuzzy multi criteria decision making for robust water resources management

All realistic Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems in water resources management face various kinds of uncertainty. In this study the evaluations of the alternatives with respect to the criteria will be assumed to be stochastic. Fuzzy linguistic quantifiers will be used to obtain the uncertain optimism degree of the Decision Maker (DM). A new approach for stochastic-fuzzy modeling of MCDM problems will be then introduced by merging the stochastic and fuzzy approaches into the Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operator. The results of the new approach, entitled SFOWA, give the expected value and the variance of the combined goodness measure for each alternative, which are essential for robust decision making. In order to combine these two characteristics, a composite goodness measure will be defined. By using this measure the model will give more sensitive decisions to the stakeholders whose optimism degrees are different than that of the decision maker. The methodology will be illustrated by using a water resources management problem in the Central Tisza River in Hungary. Finally, SFOWA will be compared to other methods known from the literature to show its suitability for MCDM problems under uncertainty.     

A review of cyclone track shifts over the Great Lakes of North America: implications for storm surges

Natural Hazards - Cyclone tracks over the Great Lakes of North America shift, both East–West as well as North–South. The reasons for the shifts are various small-scale as well as...     

Seismotectonics of the Bitlis–Zagros Fold and Thrust Belt in Northern Iraq and Surrounding Regions from Moment Tensor Analysis

Northern Iraq represents part of the convergent plate boundary between the Arabian and Eurasian plates. The collision zone between these two plates is manifested by the Bitlis–Zagros Fold and Thrust Belt. This belt is one of the most seismically active regions among the present active belts. This study intends to improve our knowledge on the seismotectonic activities in northern Iraq and the surrounding areas. To reach this goal, we used the waveform moment tensor inversion method to determine the focal depths, moment magnitudes, fault plane solutions, and directions of the principal stress axes of 25 events with magnitudes ≥3.5. The seismic data of these events were collected from 54 broadband stations which belong to the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, the Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology, and the Iraqi Seismological Network. Computer Programs in Seismology, version 3.30 (Herrmann and Ammon 2004), was used for analysis. The results show that the focal depth of these events ranged from 15 to 25 km in general. The fault plane solutions show that the strike-slip mechanism is the most dominant mechanism in the study area, usually with a reverse component. The stress regime shows three major directions; north–south, northeast-southwest, and east–west. These directions are comparable with the tectonic regime in the region.