Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area.     

Bioaccumulation of radiocaesium in Arctic seals

Seals are high trophic level feeders that bioaccumulate many contaminants to a greater degree than most lower trophic level organisms. Their trophic status in the marine food web and wide-spread distribution make seals useful sentinels of arctic environmental change. The purpose of this investigation is to document the levels and bioaccumulation potential of radiocaesium in high latitude seal species for which data have not previously been available. The study was carried out on harp, ringed, and bearded seals caught north of the island archipelago of Svalbard (82°N) in 1999. The results are then compared with previous studies in order to elucidate factors responsible for bioaccumulation in Arctic seals. Concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs were determined in muscle, liver and kidney samples from a total of 10 juvenile and one adult seal. The mean concentration in muscle samples for all animals was 0.23±0.045 Bq/kg f.w. ¹³⁷Cs concentrations in both liver and kidney samples were near detection limits (≈0.2 Bq/kg f.w.). The results are consistent with previous studies indicating low levels of radiocaesium in Arctic seals in response to a long term trend of decreasing levels of ¹³⁷Cs in the Barents Sea region. Bioconcentration factors (BCFs) estimated for seals from NE Svalbard are low, ranging from 34 to 130. Comparing these values with reported BCFs for Greenland seals from other sectors of the European Arctic, we suggest that the combination of physiological and ecological factors on radiocaesium bioaccumulation is comparable among different Arctic seal populations. The application of this work to Arctic monitoring and assessment programs is discussed.     

From well-test data to input to stochastic continuum models: effect of the variable support scale of the hydraulic data

The question of how well the true underlying hydraulic conductivity statistics of heterogeneous media are captured by well tests is addressed. The hydraulic conductivity value and the corresponding support volume associated with a theoretical well are correlated, causing a bias in the statistics derived from well-test analyses. Statistics derived from numerically simulated well tests are compared with the known underlying conductivity statistics and the results indicate an under-prediction by simulations at higher hydraulic conductivities. The deviation starts at about mean conductivity and can be as large as an order of magnitude, with the conductivity in the vicinity of the well defining the upper boundary. In other words, the conductivity value interpreted from the well test cannot be larger than the value that the well test first encounters. Consequently, for data in this simulation exercise, the standard deviation, if only determined for the upper range of the conductivity values, would be underestimated by a factor of 1.6–2. While this specific range is likely to depend on the scale and degree of the underlying heterogeneity as well as the duration of the test, the results should be indicative of a more general behaviour and are likely to occur in other heterogeneous data as well.

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Resumen Se plantea la pregunta de qué tan bien son representadas en las pruebas de pozo, las estadísticas reales de conductividad hidráulica subyacente de medios heterogéneos. Son correlacionados el valor de conductividad hidráulica y el volumen de apoyo correspondiente asociado con un pozo teórico, causando una distorsión en las estadísticas derivadas del análisis de la prueba de pozo. Las estadísticas derivadas de las pruebas de pozo simuladas numéricamente son comparadas con las estadísticas de conductividad subyacente conocidas, y los resultados indican una sub-predicción por las simulaciones hechas con conductividades hidráulicas más altas. La desviación empieza casi con la conductividad media y puede ser tan grande como un orden de magnitud, con la conductividad en la vecindad del pozo definiendo el límite superior. En otras palabras, el valor de conductividad interpretado a partir de la prueba del pozo no puede ser más grande que el valor que la prueba de pozo encuentre primero. Por consiguiente, para los datos en este ejercicio de simulación, la desviación estándar, si solamente fue determinada para el rango superior de los valores de conductividad, se subestimaría en un factor de 1.6–2. Mientras es probable que este rango específico dependa de la escala y del grado de la heterogeneidad subyacente, así como de la duración de la prueba, los resultados deben ser indicativos de un comportamiento más general y son probables también de ocurrir en otros datos heterogéneos.

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Résumé Nous posons ici la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les statistiques de la conductivité hydraulique des milieux hétérogènes pourrait être révélée par des essais de puits. La valeur de la conductivité hydraulique et le volume capté correspondant sont corrélés, créant un biais dans l’analyse des statistiques dérivées des essais de puits. Les statistiques en provenance de simulations numériques d’essais de puits sont comparées avec les statistiques de conductivités connues et les résultats indiquent une sous-évaluation par les simulations, pour les conductivités hydrauliques les plus élevées: la déviation commence à partir de la valeur moyenne de la conductivité et peut atteindre la magnitude d’un ordre de grandeur en considérant la conductivité mesurée au voisinage du puits. Autrement dit, la valeur de la conductivité interprétée via l’essais de pompage ne peut être plus importante que les premières valeurs rencontrées. Par conséquence, pour les données de cet exercice de simulation, la déviation standard sera sous-estimée d’un facteur compris entre 1.6–2 pour les valeurs les plus élevées. Tandis que l’échelle spécifique de valeurs est dépendante de l’échelle et du degré de l’hétérogénéité souterraine, de même que de la durée du test, les résultats pourraient être indicatifs d’un comportement plus général et seraient sans doute observables dans d’autres cas de données hétérogènes.

     

Prevention of oil spill from shipping by modelling of dynamic risk

This paper presents a new dynamic environmental risk model, with intended use within a new, dynamical approach for risk based ship traffic prioritisation. The philosophy behind this newly developed approach is that shipping risk can be reduced by directing efforts towards ships and areas that have been identified as high priority (high risk), prior to a potential accident. The risk model proposed in this paper separates itself from previous models by drawing on available information on dynamic factors and by focusing on the ship's surroundings. The model estimates the environmental risk of drift grounding accidents for oil tankers in real time and in forecast mode, combining the probability of grounding with oil spill impact on the coastline. Results show that the inherent dynamic risk introduced by an oil tanker sailing along the North Norwegian coast depends, not surprisingly, significantly upon wind and ocean currents, as well as tug position and cargo oil type. Results of this study indicate that the risk model is well suited for real time risk assessment, and effectively separates low risk and high risk situations. The model is well suited as a tool to prioritise oil tankers and coastal segments. This enables dynamic risk based positioning of tugs, using both real-time and projected risk, for effective support in case of a drifting ship situation.     

Estimation of winter leaf area index and sky view fraction for snow modelling in boreal coniferous forests: consequences on snow mass and energy balance

Leaf area index (LAI) and canopy coverage are important parameters when modelling snow process in coniferous forests, controlling interception and transmitting radiation. Estimates of LAI and sky view factor show large variability depending on the estimation method used, and it is not clear how this is reflected in the calculated snow processes beneath the canopy. In this study, the winter LAI and sky view fraction were estimated using different optical and biomass‐based approximations in several boreal coniferous forest stands in Fennoscandia with different stand density, age and site latitude. The biomass‐based estimate of LAI derived from forest inventory data was close to the values derived from the optical measurements at most sites, suggesting that forest inventory data can be used as input to snow hydrological modelling. Heterogeneity of tree species and site fertility, as well as edge effects between different forest compartments, caused differences in the LAI estimates at some sites. A snow energy and mass balance model (SNOWPACK) was applied to detect how the differences in the estimated values of the winter LAI and sky view fraction were reflected in simulated snow processes. In the simulations, an increase in LAI and a decrease in sky view fraction changed the snow surface energy balance by decreasing shortwave radiation input and increasing longwave radiation input. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction affected directly snow accumulation through altered throughfall fraction and indirectly snowmelt through the changed surface energy balance. Changes in LAI and sky view fraction had a greater impact on mean incoming radiation beneath the canopy than on other energy fluxes. Snowmelt was affected more than snow accumulation. The effect of canopy parameters on evaporation loss from intercepted snow was comparable with the effect of variation in governing meteorological variables such as precipitation intensity and air temperature. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards Better WMS Maps Through the Use of the Styled Layer Descriptor and Cartographic Conflict Resolution for Linear Features

Abstract

Mercator depicted Croatia on several general maps. In accordance with the level of geographical knowledge, map scales and technical possibilities of the time, Mercator provided a relatively detailed depiction of basic geographical features on these maps. His interest in mapping Croatia was probably motivated by the fact that the Venetian Republic, the Habsburg Monarchy and the Ottoman Empire had fought over this area in the sixteenth century, contributing to the fragmentation of the medieval Croatian State, while at the same time facilitating economic, religious, linguistic, artistic and scientific communication between Central, South East and Mediterranean Europe. Mercator paid special attention to toponyms that enabled geographical objects to be identified and the decoding of cartographic contents. Research into Mercator’s maps has shown that geographical names, among other things, clearly indicate the sources of spatial data that he used. Additionally, geographical names on Mercator’s maps are significant indicators of the linguistic and cultural contacts that were particularly prominent in border areas, for example, along the eastern Adriatic coast, or the courses of the Danube, Sava and Drava.     

Mobility and Transport of Nd Isotopes in the Vadose Zone During Weathering of Granitic Till in a Boreal Forest

There is a broad correlation between the ε_Nd values for rivers (including both the water and the particulate material it carries) and the age of the source terrain. This paper presents Nd isotope distribution data for soil, soil water, groundwater, and stream water samples gathered in a small catchment in northern Sweden. The results show that the release of Nd and Sm from boreal forests into streams and, eventually, into the oceans is more complicated than previously realized. The weathering of till causes changes in both the Nd isotopic composition and Sm/Nd ratios. Both the Sm/Nd ratio and ε_Nd were higher in strongly weathered soils horizons than in less weathered till, since minerals with high Sm/Nd ratios were, on average, more resistant to weathering than those with low Sm/Nd ratios. In contrast to the situation for the main minerals and the major elements, the weathering of rare earth elements (REE) was not restricted to the E-horizon: the measured REE concentrations continued to increase with depth in the C-horizon. In addition, REE released by weathering in the upper parts of the soil profile were partly secondarily retained at deeper levels. Therefore, the dissolved Nd released by weathering in the upper soil horizons was trapped and did not enter the groundwater directly. Rather, the Nd in the groundwater largely originated from weathering within the groundwater zone. However, this was not the only source of Nd in the stream water. The Nd isotope composition and Sm/Nd ratio were determined by the mixing between of Nd and Sm in the groundwater and REE-carrying organic material washed out of the soil profile. The groundwater close to the stream reaches the upper soil horizons during high discharge events such as snowmelts, and organic matter carrying Nd and Sm is washed out of the soils and thus released into the stream. Therefore, the Nd exported from catchment is derived from both the weathering within the groundwater zone, and the organic matter washed out from the soil. If longer timescales with more advanced weathering stages in the groundwater zone are considered, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a shift towards more radiogenic values in the exported Nd. Recorded shifts in the Nd isotopic composition in the ocean may thus not only reflect changed source regions, but also the weathering history of the same source region.     

An empirical model for predicting flakiness in cone crushing

A fundamental understanding of the factors influencing particle shape is of central importance for optimisation of the output quality from crushing plants for aggregate production. The literature reports that the wear on and setting of a cone crusher influence particle shape, The fact that wear on and the setting of a cone crusher influence particle shape is considered common knowledge and is also reported in the literature. To date, no mathematical model for predicting particle shape has been presented.     

Groundwater contamination risks from conservative point source pollutants in a future climate

ABSTRACT

The groundwater contamination risk in future climates was investigated at three locations in Sweden. Solute transport penetration depths were simulated using the HYDRUS-1D model using historical data and an ensemble of climate projections including two global climate models (GCMs), three emission scenarios and one regional climate model. Most projections indicated increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration until mid-century with a further increase at end-century. Results showed both increasing and decreasing groundwater contamination risks depending on emission scenario and GCM. Generally, the groundwater contamination risk is likely to be unchanged until mid-century, but higher at the end of the century. Soil and site specific relationships between Δ(P – PET) (i.e. change in the difference between precipitation, P, and potential evapotranspiration, PET) and changes in solute transport depths were determined. Using this, changes in solute transport depths for other climate projections can be assessed.     

Trace metal occurrence in a mineralised and a non-mineralised spodosol in northern Sweden

In order to determine the metal-bearing phases with special emphasis on Cu, a sequential extraction has been carried out on seven soil samples from a sulphide-bearing spodosol profile in Liikavaara Östra, close to the Aitik Copper Mine in northern Sweden. A reference spodosol profile with very low abundances of sulphides located far from anthropogenic emissions was also studied. Five fractions were selected for the extraction: (I) CH₃COONa-extractable (exchangeable/adsorbed/carbonate); (II) Na₄P₂O₇-extractable (labile organics); (III) 0.25 M NH₂OH·HCl-extractable (amorphous Fe oxyhydroxides/Mn oxides); (IV) 1 M NH₂OH·HCl-extractable (crystalline Fe oxides); and (V) KClO₃/HCl-extractable (organics and sulphides). The distribution of trace elements (Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the profile in Liikavaara Östra is different from that in the reference profile. Possible explanations for these differences are (i) the presence of sulphides in the soil, (ii) atmospheric deposition of dust derived from mining activities at the Aitik Copper Mine, and (iii) mineralogical heterogeneities inherited from the deposition of the till. There is no straightforward correlation between the amount of the extracted phases and the metal extractability in the soils. This fact indicates that other factors are important for the retention of trace metals as well. The data presented in this study suggest that Co, Cr and Ni, to a fairly large extent, are associated with the organic matter in the B-horizon in both profiles, while in the C-horizon in Liikavaara Östra, sulphides are probably the more important carriers of these elements. For Co and Ni, Fe oxyhydroxides seem to be important. Most of the Cr occurred in the residual remaining after the leaching procedure. Copper and Zn seem to be associated with the organic matter to some extent in the B-horizon. The concentration of Cu in the C-horizon in Liikavaara Östra is high (2310 ppm), but only a very small fraction is likely to be hosted by sulphides. It is concluded that the major part of Cu in the C-horizon and a prominent fraction in the B-horizon in Liikavaara Östra are associated with some secondary phase that is extractable during extractions III and IV. Possible candidates for this phase are goethite and inclusions of native Cu in weathered biotite.