An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land–sea warming ratio in climate models

A land–sea surface warming ratio (or φ) that exceeds unity is a robust feature of both observed and modelled climate change. Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for φ, it remains almost time-invariant for a wide range of twenty-first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century. Here, we present an explanation for time-invariant land–sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity. Projected temperature changes over this century are too small to breach the latter two conditions. Hence, the mechanism appears to show why both twenty-first century and time-invariant CO₂ forcing lead to similar values of φ in climate models despite the presence of transient ocean heat uptake, whereas twentieth century forcing—which has a significant spatially confined anthropogenic tropospheric aerosol component that breaches the first condition—leads to modelled values of φ that vary widely amongst models and in time. Our results suggest an explanation for the behaviour of φ when climate is forced by other regionally confined forcing scenarios such as geo-engineered changes to oceanic clouds. Our results show how land–sea contrasts in surface and boundary layer characteristics act in tandem to produce the land–sea surface warming contrast.     

Effects of cloud types on cloud-radiation interaction over the Asian monsoon region

This paper quantifies the sensitivity of radiation budget quantities to different cloud types over the Asian monsoon region using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Multiple regression was used to estimate the radiative effects of individual cloud type. It was observed that the regression performed better when the solution was constrained with clear sky fluxes, which is evident by an improvement in R ² statistics. The sensitivity coefficients calculated for the Asian monsoon region reveal that, while the LWCRCF and SWCRF will be most vulnerable to changes in cloud cover of deep convective clouds, NETCRF will be susceptible to changes in the nimbostratus clouds. Although the cloud radiative forcing of individual cloud types are found to be similar in sign to previous global findings, their magnitudes are found to vary. It is seen that cirrus clouds play an important role in governing the radiative behavior of this region.     

Seasonal variation of microzooplankton (20–200 μm) and its possible implications on the vertical carbon flux in the western Bay of Bengal

Stratification (throughout the year) and low solar radiation (during monsoon periods) have caused low chlorophyll a and primary production (seasonal average 13–18 mg m⁻² and 242–265 mg C m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively) in the western Bay of Bengal (BoB). The microzooplankton (MZP) community of BoB was numerically dominated by heterotrophic dinoflagellates (HDS) followed by ciliates (CTS). The highest MZP abundance (average 665±226×10⁴ m⁻²), biomass (average 260±145 mg C m⁻²) and species diversity (Shannon weaver index 2.8±0.42 for CTS and 2.6±0.35 for HDS) have occurred during the spring intermonsoon (SIM). This might be due to high abundance of smaller phytoplankton in the western BoB during SIM as a consequence of intense stratification and nitrate limitation (nitracline at 60 m depth). The strong stratification during SIM was biologically evidenced by intense blooms of Trichodesmium erythraeum and frequent Synechococcus–HDS associations. The high abundance of smaller phytoplankton favors microbial food webs where photosynthetic carbon is channeled to higher trophic levels through MZP. This causes less efficient transfer of primary organic carbon to higher trophic levels than through the traditional food web. The microbial food web dominant in the western BoB during SIM might be responsible for the lowest mesozooplankton biomass observed (average 223 mg C m⁻²). The long residence time of the organic carbon in the surface waters due to the active herbivorous pathways of the microbial food web could be a causative factor for the low vertical flux of biogenic carbon during SIM.     

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Model Forecast During a Satellite Launch to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes in MM5

The identification of the model discrepancy and skill is crucial when a forecast is issued. The characterization of the model errors for different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) provides more confidence on the model outputs and qualifies which CPSs are to be used for better forecasts. Cases of good/bad skill scores can be isolated and clustered into weather systems to identify the atmospheric structures that cause difficulties to the forecasts. The objective of this work is to study the sensitivity of weather forecast, produced using the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) during the launch of an Indian satellite on 5th May, 2005, to the way in which convective processes are parameterized in the model. The real-time MM5 simulations were made for providing the weather conditions near the launch station Sriharikota (SHAR). A total of 10 simulations (each of 48 h) for the period 25th April to 04th May, 2005 over the Indian region and surrounding oceans were made using different CPSs. The 24 h and 48 h model predicted wind, temperature and moisture fields for different CPSs, namely the Kuo, Grell, Kain-Fritsch and Betts-Miller, are statistically evaluated by calculating parameters such as mean bias, root-mean-squares error (RMSE), and correlation coefficients by comparison with radiosonde observation. The performance of the different CPSs, in simulating the area of rainfall is evaluated by calculating bias scores (BSs) and equitable threat scores (ETSs). In order to compute BSs and ETSs the model predicted rainfall is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observed rainfall. It was observed that model simulated wind and temperature fields by all the CPSs are in reasonable agreement with that of radiosonde observation. The RMSE of wind speed, temperature and relative humidity do not show significant differences among the four CPSs. Temperature and relative humidity were overestimated by all the CPSs, while wind speed is underestimated, except in the upper levels. The model predicted moisture fields by all CPSs show substantial disagreement when compared with observation. Grell scheme outperforms the other CPSs in simulating wind speed, temperature and relative humidity, particularly in the upper levels, which implies that representing entrainment/detrainment in the cloud column may not necessarily be a beneficial assumption in tropical atmospheres. It is observed that MM5 overestimates the area of light precipitation, while the area of heavy precipitation is underestimated. The least predictive skill shown by Kuo for light and moderate precipitation asserts that this scheme is more suitable for larger grid scale (>30 km). In the predictive skill for the area of light precipitation the Betts-Miller scheme has a clear edge over the other CPSs. The evaluation of the MM5 model for different CPSs conducted during this study is only for a particular synoptic situation. More detailed studies however, are required to assess the forecast skill of the CPSs for different synoptic situations.     

Comparison of direct statistical and indirect statistical-deterministic frameworks in downscaling river low-flow indices

ABSTRACT

This work explores the ability of two methodologies in downscaling hydrological indices characterizing the low flow regime of three salmon rivers in Eastern Canada: Moisie, Romaine and Ouelle. The selected indices describe four aspects of the low flow regime of these rivers: amplitude, frequency, variability and timing. The first methodology (direct downscaling) ascertains a direct link between large-scale atmospheric variables (the predictors) and low flow indices (the predictands). The second (indirect downscaling) involves downscaling precipitation and air temperature (local climate variables) that are introduced into a hydrological model to simulate flows. Synthetic flow time series are subsequently used to calculate the low flow indices. The statistical models used for downscaling low flow hydrological indices and local climate variables are: Sparse Bayesian Learning and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that direct downscaling using Sparse Bayesian Learning surpassed the other approaches with respect to goodness of fit and generalization ability.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed     

Attenuation Tomography Based on Strong Motion Data: Case Study of Central Honshu Region, Japan

Three-dimensional frequency dependent S-wave quality factor (Q_β(f)) value for the central Honshu region of Japan has been determined in this paper using an algorithm based on inversion of strong motion data. The method of inversion for determination of three-dimensional attenuation coefficients is proposed by Hashida and Shimazaki (J Phys Earth. 32, 299–316, 1984) and has been used and modified by Joshi (Curr Sci. 90, 581–585, 2006; Nat Hazards. 43, 129–146, 2007) and Joshi et al. (J. Seismol. 14, 247–272, 2010). Twenty-one earthquakes digitally recorded on strong motion stations of Kik-net network have been used in this work. The magnitude of these earthquake ranges from 3.1 to 4.2 and depth ranging from 5 to 20 km, respectively. The borehole data having high signal to noise ratio and minimum site effect is used in the present work. The attenuation structure is determined by dividing the entire area into twenty-five three-dimensional blocks of uniform thickness having different frequency-dependent shear wave quality factor. Shear wave quality factor values have been determined at frequencies of 2.5, 7.0 and 10 Hz from record in a rectangular grid defined by 35.4°N to 36.4°N and 137.2°E to 138.2°E. The obtained attenuation structure is compared with the available geological features in the region and comparison shows that the obtained structure is capable of resolving important tectonic features present in the area. The proposed attenuation structure is compared with the probabilistic seismic hazard map of the region and shows that it bears some remarkable similarity in the patterns seen in seismic hazard map.     

Analysis of buried pipelines subjected to reverse fault motion

Presently available simplified analytical methods and semi-empirical methods for the analysis of buried pipelines subjected to fault motion are suitable only for the strike-slip and the normal-slip type fault motions, and cannot be used for the reverse fault crossing case. A simple finite element model, which uses beam elements for the pipeline and discrete nonlinear springs for the soil, has been proposed to analyse buried pipeline subjected to reverse fault motion. The material nonlinearities associated with pipe-material and soil, and geometric nonlinearity associated with large deformations were incorporated in the analysis. Complex reverse fault motion was simulated using suitable constraints between pipe-nodes and ground ends of the soil spring. Results of the parametric study suggest that the pipeline's capacity to accommodate reverse fault offset can be increased significantly by choosing a near-parallel orientation in plan with respect to the fault line. Further improvement in the response of the pipeline is possible by adopting loose backfill, smooth and hard surface coating, and shallow burial depth in the fault crossing region. For normal or near normal orientations, pipeline is expected to fail due to beam buckling at very small fault offsets.     

The Simulation of Ground Motions Using Envelope Summations

—?The technique of Midorikawa (1993) has been modified to obtain a resultant envelope function at the observation point by placing the rupture causing an earthquake in a layered earth model. The method and its dependency on various modelling parameters are studied in detail. The complete study shows that the generated resultant envelope follows important strong motion characteristics such as directivity and attenuation effects. The simulated resultant envelope is further used for generating synthetic accelerograms by multiplying filtered white noise with the envelope of accelerogram at a particular observation point. Filters through which white noise passes include the effects of geometrical spreading, anelastic attenuation and near-site attenuation at high frequencies.¶Uttarkashi earthquake is among few Indian earthquakes for which strong motion data are available at thirteen different stations. Using the technique presented in this work, envelope function as well as complete acceleration time history during Uttarkashi earthquake has been simulated at these observation points. Comparison of peak acceleration, duration and acceleration response spectra confirms the utility and efficacy of the approach.