Tropical Cyclone Size Change under Ocean Warming and Associated Responses of Tropical Cyclone Destructiveness: Idealized Experiments

The power dissipation index (PDI), which is defined as the sum of the cube of tropical cyclone (TC) maximum wind speed during TC lifetime, is widely used to estimate the TC destructive potential. However, due to the lack of high-resolution observations, little attention has been paid to the contribution of TC size change to TC destructive potential in response to ocean warming. In this study, sensitivity experiments are performed by using the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the responses of TC size and TC destructive potential to prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) increase under the present climate condition. The results show that TC size increases with the ocean warming. Possible reasons for TC size change are investigated with a focus on the outer air-sea moisture difference (ASMD). As SST increases, ASMD in the outer zone of the TC is larger than that in the inner zone, which increases the surface entropy flux (SEF) of the outer zone. This change in the radial distribution of SEF causes the increase of tangential wind in the outer zone, which further increases SEF, resulting in a positive feedback between outer-zone SEF and outer-zone tangential wind. This feedback leads to the increase of the radius of gale-force wind, leading to the expansion of TC size. Moreover, to estimate the contribution of TC size change to TC destructiveness, we calculate TC size-dependent destructive potential (PDS) as the storm size information is available in the model outputs, as well as PDI that does not consider the effect of TC size change. We find that PDS increases exponentially as SST increases from 1 to 4°C, while PDI increases linearly; hence the former is soon much greater than the latter. This suggests that the growth effect of TC size cannot be ignored in estimating destructiveness under ocean warming.     

Numerical simulation of sloshing waves in a 3D tank based on a finite element method

The sloshing waves in a three dimensional (3D) tank are analysed using a finite element method based on the fully non-linear wave potential theory. When the tank is undergoing two dimensional (2D) motion, the calculated results are found to be in very good agreement with other published data. Extensive calculation has been made for the tank in 3D motion. As in 2D motion, in addition to normal standing waves, travelling waves and bores are also observed. It is found that high pressures occur in various circumstances, which could have important implications for many engineering designs.     

The iron Kα lines as a tool for magnetic field estimations in non-flat accretion flows

Observations of AGNs and microquasars by ASCA, RXTE, Chandra and XMM-Newton indicate the existence of broad X-ray emission lines of ionized heavy elements in their spectra. Such spectral lines were discovered also in X-ray spectra of neutron stars and X-ray afterglows of GRBs. Recently, Zakharov et al. [MNRAS 342 (2003) 1325] described a procedure to estimate an upper limit of the magnetic fields in regions from which X-ray photons are emitted. The authors simulated typical profiles of the iron Kα line in the presence of magnetic field and compared them with observational data in the framework of the widely accepted accretion disk model. Here we further consider typical Zeeman splitting in the framework of a model of non-flat accretion flows, which is a generalization of previous consideration into non-equatorial plane motion of particles emitting X-ray photons. Using perspective facilities of space borne instruments (e.g., Constellation-X mission) a better resolution of the blue peak structure of iron Kα line will allow to evaluate the magnetic fields with higher accuracy.     

新疆库车地区秋里塔格构造带成因分析

秋里塔格构造带位于库车前陆逆冲带前锋,区域构造位置介于库车坳陷三叠-侏罗系烃源岩生排烃中心与塔北前缘隆起带之间,第三系广泛分布两套膏盐岩层,发育多套储盖组合和复杂的构造样式,石油地质条件非常优越.本文在分析3个区带的变形特征基础上,探讨了盐上层和盐下层的构造成因,认为盐上层的构造成因与盐层的流动性有关,西段变形比东段强烈;盐下层构造成因东、西差异较大,东段与盐层的塑性变形无关,西段则受其影响.     

Old stellar population synthesis： new age and mass estimates for Mayall Ⅱ = G1

Mayall Ⅱ = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters （GCs） in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKs 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G 1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000A. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population （SSP） models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ～1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates （of order 10^7M⊙） indicate that GI is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster＇s exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, （1.65±0.63） × 10^2L⊙ far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.     

Geochemical evidence of ions’ sources and influences of meteorological factors on hydrochemistry of glacier snow meltwater in the source region of the Yangtze River

The risk management of cascade reservoir systems (CRSs) is a major public challenge, and the establishment of risk criteria is critical to solving this iss     

东北北部冷暖旱涝趋势的初步研究

根据１９５１～１９９９年黑龙江省代表站的历年逐月的气温、降水量资料,用计算趋势系数的方法,研究了东北北部冷暖旱涝趋势的问题。结果指出：进入９０年代,东北北部夏季气温变暖现象更加显著;但过渡季节气温变暖的趋势已经结束;旱涝趋势的变化比冷暖趋势的变化更为复杂,具有不同的季节特征和地域特征。     

高邮-宝应M4.9地震前湖州定点形变异常分析

对高邮-宝应M4.9地震前湖州台定点形变资料进行了分析,发现其存在趋势异常、短期异常和临震异常。震源机制解结果显示,摆式倾斜仪的倾斜异常的方向与研究区域背景应力场方向一致,形变异常很可能是区域构造应力场改变的反映。     

大地电场观测各类干扰源的调研与分析

收集整理大地电场观测的各类干扰及变化原因,通过详尽的调研和相关分析研究,提出其常规干扰变化的识别方法,以及为提高大地电场观测资料的质量而采取的干扰抑制技术,并针对各类干扰源的机理,改进和完善现有的大地电场观测技术,提高资料的稳定性和可靠性。     

UFH风廓线雷达降水数据判别方法的比较与评价杨

给出了5种UHF风廓线雷达降水数据的判别方法,利用北京CFL-16型对流层风廓线雷达于2007年6-8月获取的部分观测数据,对5种判别方法进行对比分析。结果表明,这些方法在降水天气下判断正确率都在89％以上,其中,建立关于垂直径向速度和信噪比、垂直径向速度和谱宽的判别函数两种方法判断正确率均达99％以上。