鲁豫交界地区深井水位持续大幅度下降原因分析

鲁豫交界地区豫01、11井和鲁27井等3口地震观测深井的水位于2006年后出现了准同步的异常下降变化,下降幅度3 ～12m不等.经调查落实,发现该地区近年来地热开采活动日益增强,开采量逐年增大,并且开采层与异常井水位观测层同属于奥陶系热储层.为此,本文依据聊城-兰考断裂带附近区域的水文地质构造特征,建立了三维地下水流动模型,基于周边地热开采量数据和相关含水层参数,运用有限差分方法计算了地热开采所引起的区域水位降落漏斗,并分析了水位下降异常的时间演化和空间分布特征.结果显示,聊城-兰考断裂带附近区域自1995年开始地热开采活动以来,其逐年增加的地热开采量与地震观测井水位的下降幅度之间存在较好的对应关系,分析认为鲁豫交界地区3口深井水位的准同步异常下降与周边地热开采活动有关.     

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τc and Pd method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

基于COSMIC掩星数据分析中低纬度地区电子密度分布变化

利用COSMIC掩星2009年电子密度剖面数据,筛选数据进行网格划分,网格内数据统计平均,基于球谐函数计算模型值,分析电离层中低纬度地区最大电子密度的地磁季节变化、昼夜测分布相对变化,及地磁活动对电子密度的分布影响.结果表明,最大电子密度昼测值明显高于夜测值,在中纬度部分区域增大明显.电子密度昼测值在地磁活动期间高度150-550 km中低纬度范围为正相扰动,随纬度变化存在区域差异,随高度增加,扰动加强.     

牡丹江地震台形变数据快速转换软件

采用VB6.0编制形变数据快速转换软件,可以将epd格式的形变数据转换成Mapsis所要求的格式,便于研究人员使用.牡丹江地震台形变数据快速转换软件已在牡丹江地震台调试通过,使用效果较好,便于推广应用.     

A multistage simulation-based optimization model for water resources management in Tarim River Basin, China

In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability.     

Improved Local Wavenumber Methods in the Interpretation of Potential Field Data

We present two new potential-inversion methods for estimating the depth and the nature (structural index) of the source, which use various combinations of different forms of local wavenumbers and the information about the horizontal location to estimate individually the depth and the nature of a magnetic source. The improved local wavenumber methods only use the horizontal offset and vertical offset of local wavenumbers to estimate the depth and the structural index of the source, so they yield more stable results compared with the results obtained by current methods that require the derivatives of local wavenumbers. Tests conducted with synthetic noise-free and noise-corrupted magnetic data show that the proposed methods can successfully estimate the depth and the nature of the geologic body. However, our methods are sensitive to high-wavenumber noise present in the data, and we reduced the noise effect by upward continuing the noise-corrupted magnetic data. The practical application of the new methods is tested on a real magnetic anomaly over a dike whose source parameters are known and the inversion results are consistent with the true values.     

Investigation of Lushan earthquake ionosphere VTEC anomalies based on GPS data

Vertical total electron content (VTEC) time series were obtained from 22 GPS stations near the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake. In this paper, we have adopted a sliding average method to detect and analyze anomalous VTEC associated with the earthquake. The results show that significant, negative ionosphere VTEC anomalies appeared over the 5 days before the earthquake, and on the day when earthquake occurred. The maximum value of VTEC anomalies that exceeded the lower bound reached 20 TECU. The spatial distribution of VTEC anomalies showed a conjugate structure, which shifted to the magnetic equator, and subsequently moved westwards.     

Frost heave control of fine round gravel fillings in deep seasonal frozen regions

Fine round gravel soil is widely employed in the subgrade of high speed railways in cold regions to prevent frost heaving and thawing. The lower the fines content in fine round gravel soil, the smaller the quantities of frost heaving and thawing, but compaction difficulty increases. This study is to obtain the optimum fines content and limited frost heaving and thawing. The fine round gravel soil filling (FRGSF) used in the Harbin-Qiqihaer Passenger Dedicated Line is taken as the study object. Influence of fines content on optimum water content, maximum dry density and frost heaving properties of FRGSF were studied by means of compaction and frost heaving tests. Results show that the maximum dry density of the FRGSF increases first and then decreases with an increase of fines content, namely there is an optimum fines content for easy compaction. The method of surface-vibratory instrument is fit for coarse-grained soils, and wet state of coarse-grained soil is in favor of compaction. Considering the relationship of fines content with maximum dry density and the frost heaving ratio of FRGSF, the fines content should be limited to within the range of 9%-10%, so that the frost heaving ratio is less than 1%, and the FRGSF is easily compacted. Water supply is proved to be an important factor influencing the amount of frost heaving of FRGSF. We also conclude that in the field, it is imperative to control waterproofing and drainage measures.     

Lake Area Changes and the main causes in the hinterland of Badain Jaran Desert during 1973–2010, China

Lake area information in the Badain Jaran Desert in 1973, 1990, 2000, and 2010 was obtained by visual interpretation and water index analysis of remote sensing images, based on the spatial and temporal characteristics of lake area changes during 37 years. Results indicated that the number of lakes declined from 94 to 82 and the total surface area was reduced by 3.69 km² during 1973–2010. The desert lake area reduced by different degrees in different periods, but this occurred most rapidly during 1973–1990. According to the statistics of lake area changes, lake area decreases mainly occurred in the lakes with areas less than 0.2 km², while the areas of lakes greater than 0.9 km² only fluctuated. The changes of lake areas were probably due to changes in the quantity of underground water supplies rather than the effects of local climate change or human factors.