A Preliminary Study of Holocene Climate Change and Human Adaptation in the Horqin Region

Abstract: Human activity during the Holocene in the Horqin region, northeastern China, has been widely documented. As an important proxy record of human activity, black carbon (BC) in sediments has been linked to climate change and human adaptation. A loess-paleosol section located in south Horqin was chosen for this study. Holocene climate change and human adaptation to the environment were discussed by analyzing BC, organic carbon (OC) and other proxies. The conclusions included: (1) before 3900 cal BP, human activity was closely related to the natural environment and cultural development was dominated by climate change. For example, the rapid decline of the agrarian Hongshan culture was caused by a slight decrease in temperature at ~5000 cal BP; (2) during 3900-3200 cal BP, the heavy dependence of human societies on nature gradually lessened and the ability of those human societies to adapt to the environment was enhanced. However, the farming-dominated Lower Xiajiadian culture was nonetheless replaced by the pastoralist Upper Xiajiadian culture due to an extremely cooling event at ~3200 cal BP; (3) during the late Holocene period, the marked influence of climate change on human activity might have lessened as a result of a clear improvement in human labor skills. After this, human living styles were influenced by cultural developments rather than climate change because humans had mastered more powerful means of productivity.     

地理国情普查中卫星影像景范围线的分析应用

地理国情普查项目中,多源卫星遥感影像应用广泛,制作图幅DOM、要素解译时都需要确定卫星遥感影像各景的有效使用范围。在生产实践的基础上,提出合理应用景范围线,有效提高图幅DOM、要素解译和元数据生产效率的方法。     

考虑优势流作用的降雨入渗边坡可靠度分析

降雨诱发滑坡是世界上最普遍的地质灾害,而关于降雨入渗对边坡的可靠度分析,优势入渗的影响被长期忽视。使用Comsol Multiphysics对降雨条件下优势入渗做数值求解,利用无限边坡模型计算边坡安全系数;并应用改进Cholesky分解法生成空间相关随机场,使用蒙特卡洛方法分析降雨过程中边坡的可靠度。结合确定性与可靠度计算对比均质入渗与优势入渗在降雨过程中边坡安全性变化：（1）降雨强度较低时,优势入渗安全性较好,而降雨强度较高时,均质入渗更稳定;（2）均质入渗中参数空间变异性是边坡失稳破坏的关键因素,而优势入渗的边坡失稳则由湿润峰快速推进所导致;（3）针对优势入渗模型研究,发现基质域与优势域水力交换强度较大时边坡有更大概率失稳,而较小的水力交换强度可能影响边坡底部的失稳破坏。     

金属的理化性质和地壳丰度的相互关系初步研究

本文旨在探讨金属元素的理化性质和其地壳丰度(CA)的分布规律。利用相关性分析和集对分析研究了金属的理化性质和其地壳丰度的关系。结果表明,金属元素21种理化参数与地壳丰度之间均有不同程度的相关性。其中10种理化参数和地壳丰度显著相关(P≤0.05),包括共价指数(X2mr)、原子密度(ρ)、原子序数(AN)、原子量(AW)、有效核电荷(Z*)、电负性(Xm)、软指数(σp)、电子亲和能(EA)、极化力(Z*2/r)和电化学势(ΔE0)。集对分析进一步表明:X2mr,ρ,Z*和Xm与log(CA)之间趋同性较好,支持了相关分析的结论。研究结果暗示金属的理化性质与地壳丰度之间存在密切的内在关系,这为地球演化成因、元素丰度演变规律提供了新证据,对岩石、矿产资源开发和利用等有重要意义。     

月球光学遥感与制图研究进展

在月球探测活动中,光学成像探测是任务重点,也是信息量最大的数据源。航天技术和传感器技术的发展促进了月球光学遥感的发展,月球科学研究也越来越依赖于高分辨率遥感数据,对月球光学遥感与制图的研究是月球探测的关键问题之一。本文扼要论述了其中的几个方面,包括月球光学遥感数据获取系统、月球遥感立体测绘和制图,以及月球控制网构建等方面的研究进展。     

北疆暴雪过程的湿位涡诊断

利用NCEP1°×1°再分析资料,对2009年3月19—20日北疆沿天山一带一次暴雪天气过程进行诊断分析,着重探讨了湿位涡诊断在新疆暴雪预报中的应用。分析表明：暴雪的水汽输送有3个源地,低层负散度、向北倾斜的涡度“上负下正”分布、等θe线的陡立密集带、垂直速度负值区与暴雪落区均有较好的对应关系。暴雪主要发生在MPV1〉0、MPV2绝对值迅速增加且等值线密集分布的区域。MPV1下传增大,大气对流不稳定能量释放,低层MPV2绝对值增大,大气湿斜压性增强,下滑倾斜涡度增长是暴雪形成的重要原因。     

条件非线性最优扰动在可预报性问题研究中的应用

本文总结了近年来条件非线性最优扰动方法的应用研究的主要进展.主要包括四个方面:(1)将条件非线性最优扰动(CNOP)方法拓展到既考虑初始扰动又考虑模式参数扰动,形成了拓展的CNOP方法.拓展的CNOP方法不仅能够应用于研究分别由初始误差和模式参数误差导致的可预报性问题,而且能够用于探讨初始误差和模式参数误差同时存在的情形;(2)将拓展的CNOP方法分别应用于ENSO和黑潮可预报性研究,考察了初始误差和模式参数误差对其可预报性的影响,揭示了初始误差在导致ENSO和黑潮大弯曲路径预报不确定性中的重要作用;(3)考察了阻塞事件发生的最优前期征兆(OPR)以及导致其预报不确定性的最优增长初始误差(OGR),揭示了OPR和OGR空间模态及其演变机制的相似性及其局地性特征;(4)研究了台风预报的目标观测问题,用CNOP方法确定了台风预报的目标观测敏感区,通过观测系统模拟试验(OSSEs)和/或观测系统试验(OSEs),表明了CNOP敏感区在改进台风预报中的有效性.具体地,台风OGR的主要误差分布在某一特定区域,空间分布具有明显的局地性特征,在台风OGR的局地性区域增加观测,有效改进了台风的预报技巧,该区域代表了台风预报的初值敏感区.事实上,上述El Ni(n)o事件、黑潮路径变异以及阻塞事件的OGR的空间分布也具有明显的局地性特征,这些事件的OGR刻画的局地性区域可能也代表了初值敏感区.     

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution on the CNOP and on Its Identified Sensitive Areas for Tropical Cyclone Predictions

In this study,the impacts of horizontal resolution on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and on its identified sensitive areas were investigated for tropical cyclone predictions.Three resolutions,30 km,60 km,and 120 km,were studied for three tropical cyclones,TC Mindulle (2004),TC Meari (2004),and TC Matsa (2005).Results show that CNOP may present different structures with different resolutions,and the major parts of CNOP become increasingly localized with increased horizontal resolution.CNOP produces spiral and baroclinic structures,which partially account for its rapid amplification.The differences in CNOP structures result in different sensitive areas,but there are common areas for the CNOP-identified sensitive areas at various resolutions,and the size of the common areas is different from case to case.Generally,the forecasts benefit more from the reduction of the initial errors in the sensitive areas identified using higher resolutions than those using lower resolutions.However,the largest improvement of the forecast can be obtained at the resolution that is not the highest for some cases.In addition,the sensitive areas identified at lower resolutions are also helpful for improving the forecast with a finer resolution,but the sensitive areas identified at the same resolution as the forecast would be the most beneficial.