基于GRACE的空间约束方法监测华北平原地下水储量变化

华北平原作为我国重要的工农业基地和政治经济中心,面临着严重的水资源危机.因此,开展对华北平原地下水储量变化的监测工作具有重要现实意义与科学价值.本文基于GRACE重力卫星的空间约束方法,研究了华北平原地下水储量变化的时空分布规律,并与地面水井实测与地下水模型结果进行了综合比较和分析.结果表明：2002—2014年,华北平原地下水存在明显的长期亏损,GRACE估计的亏损速率为-7.4±0.9 km³·a^-1,而地面水井资料估计的浅层地下水亏损速率为-1.2 km³·a^-1.对比两者之间的差异可以发现,华北平原的地下水亏损以深层地下水为主.2002—2008年,GRACE估计的华北平原地下水亏损速率为-5.3±2.2 km³·a^-1,这与华北平原两个地下水模型得到的平均亏损速率-5.4 km³·a^-1十分吻合.通过华北平原区域地下水模型的独立验证,说明GRACE可以有效评估华北平原的地下水储量变化趋势.除了长期亏损的趋势项之外,华北平原地下水还存在明显的年际变化特征,并与该地区年降雨量变化特征一致.在降雨偏少的2002年、2005—2009年和2014年,华北平原地下水储量显著减少.在空间分布上,GRACE结果表明,华北平原的地下水储量减少主要发生在山前平原和中部平原区,这也与水井实测资料和区域地下水模型结果较为吻合.与GRACE和区域地下水模型相比,目前的全球水文模型仍无法准确估计华北平原地下水变化的空间分布和亏损速率.上述研究表明,GRACE提供了评估华北平原地下水储量变化的重要监测手段.

     

石臼坨凸起东部斜坡带新近系录井综合解释

石臼坨凸起为渤海海域典型的复式油气聚集区,复杂的油气成藏导致录井资料在全井对比上差异性非常大。随着勘探的深入,在石臼坨凸起东部斜坡带解释符合率较低。对石臼坨凸起东部斜坡带的19口井534层储层进行了综合分析,分析资料包括气测、地化、电测、试油等数据。通过对比分析发现,错误主要集中在新近系的明下段和馆陶组储层,生物降解、荧光、气体组分在认识上存在一些偏差。将生物降解分类,优选参数,建立适应本地区的解释图板和阈值,符合率达到87.7%,效果非常好。东部斜坡带所建立的解释方法对整个石臼坨凸起以后的录井综合解释具有非常大的指导作用。     

Temporal variation of suspended sediment load in the Pearl River due to human activities

Data on sediment flux at three hydrologic stations from the 1950s to 2006 are utilized to study the decadal,annual,and monthly variations in suspended sediment load delivered from the Pearl River to the ocean.Results show that variations in sediment flux from three main tributaries,including the West River,the North River and the East River,are spatially non-uniform.Since nearly 90%of the suspended sediment load comes from the West River,its variation has dominated the overall tendency of sediment flux in the entire Pearl River.Although a significant decreasing trend exists in the annual variation of the total sediment flux,the decadal change can be divided into an increasing phase and a decreasing phase,with the turning point between the two phases in the late 1980s.From the 1950s to the 1980s,the average annual river sediment flux increased by 30.43%.However,sediment flux has decreased significantly since the 1990s,with the average sediment flux being 38.60%less in the 2000s than that in the 1950s.The current sediment flux is also 52.93%less than its peak in the 1980s. The monthly variation pattern of the suspended sediment load transport to the sea is more interesting. For the West River,all months show a decreasing trend,and for most months the reduction values are significant.However,for the East River the sediment load shows a decrease trend in the dry season and an increase trend in the wet season.The method of regression analysis was used to study the influence of precipitation in the variation on the sediment flux.It was found that the climate change is not the main driving force behind the variation in suspended sediment load.Before the 1990s, intensive land use destroyed the vulnerable ecosystem of the upper Pearl River,and speeded up the process of rocky desertification.Consequently,aggravated soil erosion caused an increase in suspended sediment load.However,sediment retention within reservoirs had begun to play a dominant role after the massive construction of large dams after 1990,and resulted in a decrease in the suspended sediment load delivered to the ocean.     

典型农区农用地承包经营权流转价格及对策研究(英文)

河南既是农业大省又是中国重要的粮食主产区,农用地流转顺畅及适度规模经营对区域经济发展和国家粮食安全产生重要影响。借助于土地使用权评估的基本方法,并使用土地承包经营权的权属特性进行修正,构建了土地承包经营权流转价格模型,并对典型区域沁阳市西万村进行了实证分析。结果表明,土地承包经营权流转价格应该包括经济价格、社会价格和修正价格。价格模型的应用,应甄别理论价格和实际流转费用的区分,农用地流转后经营项目没有转变,流转价格为经济价格和社会保障价格是总和。农用地流转后经营项目发生转变,比如耕地改种经济作物,流转价格则是经济价格、社会价格与修正价格三者的总和。收益分配格局存在复杂性,流转收益应在流出方、流入方、管理者和所有者之间合理、公平分配。政府应建立合理有序的农用地承包经营权流转市场,并以农用地流转市场为载体,构建农用地流转价格体系。     

基于3DCM的武警处突方案演示系统研究

随着三维城市模型(Three Dimensional City Model,3DCM)的蓬勃发展和武警部队建设信息化步伐的快速推进,利用3DCM技术辅助武警指挥员在处置突发性事件(简称处突)中精确地获取信息、直观快速地理解信息、高效地利用信息受到越来越多的重视。本文在论述3DCM在武警处突指挥信息系统具体应用的基础上,设计了3DCM支持下武警处突方案演示系统,内容包括系统组成、主要功能及技术实现途径。     

陆相坳陷盆地层序地层格架下岩性地层圈闭/油藏类型与分布规律——以松辽盆地白垩系泉头组—嫩江组为例

本文在圈闭组成和形成条件分析的基础上对坳陷盆地层序地层格架下岩性地层圈闭/油藏类型与分布规律进行了初步分析和总结,探讨了层序地层格架下不同体系域中圈闭/油藏类型的纵向分布、盆地中不同构造部位圈闭/油藏类型的横向分布规律。系统解剖了松辽坳陷盆地白垩系二级层序格架内低位、湖侵和高位体系域中圈闭/油藏类型的纵向分布和变化特征;对比分析了坳陷盆地从凹陷带(近凹中心)、过渡带(凹陷边缘)到斜坡带(环凹斜坡)圈闭/油藏类型的横向分布和变化规律。圈闭/油藏类型的纵、横向分布和变化规律表明:岩性地层圈闭/油藏的形成及类型具有纵向“层控”、横向“相控”的规律性,即纵向上受控于层序格架(体系域),横向上受控于一定构造背景下特定的沉积相带。     

Recent Advances in Predictability Studies in China （1999-2002）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) General Assembly (1999), the predictability studies in China have made further progress during the period of 1999-2002. Firstly, three predictability sub-problems in numerical weather and climate prediction are classified, which are concerned with the maximum predictability time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum allowable initial error, and then they are reduced into three nonlinear optimization problems. Secondly, the concepts of the nonlinear singular vector (NSV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) are proposed,which have been utilized to study the predictability of numerical weather and climate prediction. The results suggest that the nonlinear characteristics of the motions of atmosphere and oceans can be revealedby NSV and CNOP. Thirdly, attention has also been paid to the relations between the predictability and spatial-temporal scale, and between the model predictability and the machine precision, of which the investigations disclose the importance of the spatial-temporal scale and machine precision in the study of predictability. Also the cell-to-cell mapping is adopted to analyze globally the predictability of climate,which could provide a new subject to the research workers. Furthermore, the predictability of the summer rainfall in China is investigated by using the method of correlation coefficients. The results demonstrate that the predictability of summer rainfall is different in different areas of China. Analysis of variance, which is one of the statistical methods applicable to the study of predictability, is also used to study the potential predictability of monthly mean temperature in China, of which the conclusion is that the monthly mean temperature over China is potentially predictable at a statistical significance level of 0.10. In addition,in the analysis of the predictability of the T106 objective analysis/forecasting field, the variance and the correlation coefficient are calculated to explore the distribution characteristics of the mean-square errors.Finally, the predictability of short-term climate prediction is investigated by using statistical methods or numerical simulation methods. It is demonstrated that the predictability of short-term climate in China depends not only on the region of China being investigated, but also on the time scale and the atmospheric internal dynamical process.     

攀枝花钒钛磁铁矿区土壤重金属地球化学特征及污染评价

为了解攀枝花钒钛磁铁矿区土壤重金属的特征及污染程度,采集了矿区表层土壤样品和两个土壤剖面,用多种分析方法有针对性地分析了Cu、Pb、Zn、Ti、V、Co、Ni、As、Cd、Cr、Hg、Mn十二种元素。在分析分布特征基础上,对重金属进行了污染物负荷指数评价,结果发现:1)攀枝花钒钛磁铁矿矿区表层土壤大部分属于中等污染,少数属于强污染,个别达到了极强污染;2)Co、V、Cu、Cd、Ti几种元素的最高污染系数大,Zn、Mn、Ni、Cr四种元素的最高污染系数次之,Hg、Pb两种元素的最高污染系数较小,As的最高污染系数最小;3)从各区域的污染物负荷指数来看,排土场周围和朱矿采矿场下游附近污染程度较大,远离矿区以及矿区上游污染较小。     

一种基于复合金字塔模型的三维模型数据组织方法

针对异构三维模型数据的统一组织和集成管理问题,本文以目前主流金字塔模型、三维场景瓦片的数据组织方法和地图服务规范等相关技术为基础,提出了一种基于复合金字塔模型的三维模型数据组织方法。该方法首先构建覆盖测区的地理格网模型,以此作为异构三维模型数据集成的空间框架。其次,建立三维模型数据与地理格网单元的映射关系,从而构建复合金字塔模型,实现异构三维模型数据的统一管理。最后,在数据结构上对现有数据格式进行扩展,设计了一种面向网络传输的数据格式储存三维模型数据,完成异构三维模型数据的一体化存储。试验结果表明,该方法能够实现异构三维模型数据统一组织与集成管理。     

渤黄海沿海2月份海平面异常偏高成因分析

使用1980—2010年的水位、气温、海温、气压和风场资料,对中国渤黄海沿海2月份的海平面变化特征以及异常偏高成因进行了探讨,分析结果表明:近30年,渤黄海沿海2月份海平面呈现明显的上升趋势,2009年和2010年2月份的海平面达到近30年的高值,冬季高海平面导致全年平均海平面偏高。近两年2月份海平面处于多个长周期振动的高位重合期,各振幅叠加的结果近100 mm,对海平面起了明显的抬升作用。高海平面使得辽宁、河北以及山东等沿岸地区的海水入侵距离和土壤盐渍化程度均有所增加,海岸侵蚀加重;上海在2009—2010年连续2年2月份发生了近年较严重的咸潮入侵。2009年和2010年2月份,气压较常年同期显著偏低,冬季季风显著偏弱,是海平面上升的主要原因之一。