云浮高温天气及其环流形势统计与分析

为加深对云浮高温天气特征的认识,对云浮地区1981—2010年高温天气及其与副高、热带气旋之间关系进行统计分析。结果表明:云浮地区年高温天气大体呈增加趋势,测站局地环境不一致导致各测站高温天气年变化的并不一致。云浮地区高温天气主要出现在6—8月,7月最多,8月次之。云浮地区高温环流形势可分为4类:副高型、台风Ⅰ型、台风Ⅱ型和其它型。500 hPa位势高度(台风强度)与云浮地区台风I型(台风Ⅱ型)高温的关系不明显。500 hPa位势高度较高有利于台风Ⅱ型、副高型、其它型高温的发生发展。500 hPa位势高度大值中心位于测站以北(以西)有利于台风II型(其它型)高温发生发展,位于测站以东时副高型高温较多,位于测站东南则不利于高温天气发生发展。台风中心位于测站东北、东、东南三个方位,台风中心与测站距离600~1 600 km,台风强度在TS及以上时,有利于台风I型高温的发生发展。台风中心位于测站东方方位,台风中心与测站距离1 600~2 200 km,有利于台风Ⅱ型高温的发生发展。     

Mean sea level changes near Weizhou island from 1969 to 2010

Tidal data from Weizhou, Zhapo, and Shanwei stations between 1969 and 2010 and from five gauging stations in the western Pacific Ocean provided by PSMSL, and the global mean sea level data recorded between December 1992 and December 2010 by TOPEX and Jason satellites were compiled and analyzed. The results show that the perennial mean sea level near Weizhou Island is 211.7 cm(relative to the water gauge zero), and the relative mean sea level rising rate is 2.2 mm yr-1 from 1969 to 2010, which is consistent with the relative mean sea level rising rate recorded at other gauging stations in the western Pacific regions and with the global mean sea level rising rate. The absolute mean sea level rising rate at Weizhou Island is 3.0 mm yr-1 from 1993 to 2010, also conforming with the global mean sea level rising rate(3.1±0.4 mm yr-1) during the same time period. The highest annual tide level at Weizhou Island has a rising rate of 4.6 mm yr-1 and shows a 20-year quasi-periodic variation from 1966 to 2010. The primary cause of the mean sea level rising is global warming.     

Standards of ecological compensation for traditional eco-agriculture: Taking rice-fish system in Hani terrace as an example

Traditional eco-agriculture provides many ecosystem services which are important for the local environment, especially in mountain areas. In order to encourage the farmers to engage in eco-agriculture,it is necessary to establish an eco-compensation mechanism for them. As the compensation standard is one of key issues in establishing eco-compensation mechanism, this paper calculated the standard based on the farmers' willingness to accept(WTA) and the input-output analysis of eco-compensation. We took the traditional rice-fish eco-agriculture as the research object, conducting field surveys in Hani Terrace of Honghe County. Through the questionnaires in 2011, we obtained the farmers' willingness to accept government compensation and market compensation. Then, the research evaluated the output of eco-compensation, the economic value of rice-fish paddy ecosystem services. Finally, under different market compensation standards, we compared the input and output of government compensation. The results show that, in 2011 the government should to pay farmers 7462 yuan·ha–1·a-1to meet their willingness, but the output(ecological benefit) was only 7393 yuan·ha–1·a-1. However, when the rice price increases 1 yuan·kg-1 because of the limited use of chemicals in the next year, the government just has to pay farmers 4062 yuan·ha–1·a-1 and the surplus will be 3331 yuan·ha–1·a-1.     

影像倾斜度对ASIFT匹配有效性的影响

相比传统垂直摄影模式,倾斜摄影更符合人眼直观感受,且能提供更加丰富的三维信息,因而在测绘领域越来越受到重视。对比分析了国内外主要倾斜数字相机的性能参数,归纳了倾斜摄影测量作业的一般数据结构、成像规律。为衡量单张航摄倾斜影像的绝对倾斜程度或是两张倾斜影像之间的倾斜差异,引入了倾斜度概念。通过不同倾斜度条件下的ASIFT匹配实验,研究分析倾斜度变化对于匹配有效性的影响,验证了倾斜度计算方法的合理性。     

计算机兵棋棋盘中投影变形及坐标转换问题研究

兵棋是对作战过程进行逻辑推演研究和评估的军事科学工具,其三大组成要素包括棋盘、棋子和规则。棋盘的经典样式就是六角格兵棋棋盘,计算机兵棋中也常采用六角格棋盘描述战场地形环境,而棋盘的投影变形和坐标转换分别是制约兵棋推演可信度和推演效率的重要因素。首先分析了棋盘所用投影方式的变形规律,提出了个体值法和平均值法对变形进行修正;然后针对经纬度坐标和六角格编码的转换,提出了直接转换和间接转换两种方法,分析其基本转换原理,并给出了坐标转换公式;最后通过实验对所述方法进行验证,结果证实平均值法对于修正投影变形具有很好的实用性,且间接坐标转换法具有更高的转换效率。     

虚拟地理环境中地图注记的配置研究

在虚拟地理环境的表示中注记配置是一个重要方面,注记配置的好坏直接影响着虚拟地理环境的表达.为此,本文从虚拟地理环境的特点出发,分析了三维环境中注记配置研究存在的不足,主要探讨了注记配置应解决的关键问题、配置规则以及配置参数的质量评价原则.     

一元P-范分布参数估计的改进方法

当观测误差服从P范分布时,本文从P范分布的概率密度函数和统计性质出发,利用绝对矩得到了参数p和方差的合理选择公式,给出了一种P范分布的参数的估计方法,可以使误差分布更加接近真实分布.将得到的参数估值作为应用极大似然估计法进行迭代时的初值,从而减少了运算时间,提高了运算效率.同时,将模型展开为泰勒级数,取至二次项,从而使...     

多尺度表达的地图设计模型

计算机技术引入地图学之后,引起地图制作与生产方式的极大变革.地图设计作为地图制作的核心,其内涵也发生了重要变化.以电子地图的多尺度表达为目标,探讨了地图设计在时空尺度上的扩展,提出了多尺度地图设计模型.为地图设计知识的抽象化、可视化以及设计知识向普通大众的传播提供了可借鉴的样本.     

Analogue-dynamical prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China based on dynamic and optimal configuration of multiple predictors

Based on the National Climate Center (NCC) of China operational seasonal prediction model results for the period 1983–2009 and the US National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center merged analysis of precipitation in the same period, together with the 74 circulation indices of NCC Climate System Diagnostic Division and 40 climate indices of NOAA of US during 1951–2009, an analogue-dynamical technique for objective and quantitative prediction of monsoon precipitation in Northeast China is proposed and implemented. Useful information is extracted from the historical data to estimate the model forecast errors. Dominant predictors and the predictors that exhibit evolving analogues are identified through cross validating the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) among single predictors, meanwhile with reference of the results from the dynamic analogue bias correction using four analogue samples. Next, an optimal configuration of multiple predictors is set up and compared with historical optimal multi-predictor configurations and then dynamically adjusted. Finally, the model errors are evaluated and utilized to correct the NCC operational seasonal prediction model results, and the forecast of monsoon precipitation is obtained at last. The independent sample validation shows that this technique has effectively improved the monsoon precipitation prediction skill during 2005–2009. This study demonstrates that the analogue-dynamical approach is feasible in operational prediction of monsoon precipitation.     

热带大气季节内振荡对华南前汛期降水的影响

本文基于实时的热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)指数和中国台站降水资料,研究了MJO对中国华南前汛期(4～6月)降水的影响.结果表明,随着MJO的活跃中心从印度洋进入西太平洋,华南地区的降水由偏多转为偏少.最显著的降水正负异常分别位于第4位相和第7位相,其区域平均的最大正负异常值相对于气候平均值的变化约为17%和11%.与降...