Factors affecting the performance of family planning workers: importance of geographical information systems in empirical analysis

Substantial variation in contraceptive prevalence rates (CPRs) and fertility rates (FRs) between community health workers (CHWs) has been documented since the inception of the Matlab family planning program in rural Bangladesh. The coefficients of variation of these indicators for Matlab CHWs were 7% and 26%, respectively, in 1995. To identify the reasons for these performance variations, geographical information system (GIS) approaches were applied to longitudinal and cross-sectional data on 80 CHWs for the period 1980-95. Each observation in the data-set included catchment area-specific characteristics, measures of CHW efficiency in service delivery, and CHW-specific characteristics for one specific year. A one-unit increase in the average age of target women in the catchment area increases the CPR by 9.2%. The CPR increases by 0.2% for each 1% increase in women's literacy and decreases by 0.1% for each 1% increase in the number of Muslim households in the catchment area. An increase of 1 sq. km in the size of the catchment area reduces the CPR by 3%. CHW performance increases with age up to 45 years and then decreases. Similarly, a 1-year increase in the average age of target women reduces the FR by 2%. A 10% increase in the size of the catchment area reduces program performance by increasing the FR by 1.4%. A single geographic barrier to movement increases the FR by 1%. This analysis indicates that CHW performance can be improved significantly by defining catchment areas through use of GIS techniques. Without knowledge of the spatial distribution of population and the physical barriers to movement, allocating a fixed number of clients per CHW may not be the most efficient approach.     

Investment,population growth and GNP as determinants of US immigration

Northern countries typically attract migrants from poorer countries because of the formers' high wage rates and demand for labor. In particular, the US receives large numbers of legal migrants from almost every country and region of the world. This paper explores the determinants of permanent emigration to the US during 1989-93 using data drawn from the US Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) Annual Tapes for the period. The analysis is restricted to only legal migration from 150 countries, and specifically investigates whether emigration to the US during 1989-93 can be accounted for by demographic and economic conditions in sending countries, or by levels of US investment in sending countries. No support is found for claims that rapid population growth and US investment fuel US immigration; emigration is comparatively far lower from countries experiencing rapid population growth and not significantly correlated with US investment, while the US typically invests the most in the more developed countries which send relatively few migrants to the US. Geographic proximity is the most important correlate of migration, followed by the population size of sending countries, which is negatively related to emigration. Some evidence was found that emigration will decrease as countries develop. Who a country decides to admit and how many people are admitted depend mainly upon public policy and very little upon the economic and demographic conditions of sending countries.     

Persistence of oiling in mussel beds after the Exxon Valdez oil spill

Persistence and weathering of Exxon Valdez oil in intertidal mussel (Mytilus trossulus) beds in Prince William Sound (PWS) and along the Gulf of Alaska was monitored from 1992 to 1995. Beds with significant contamination included most previously oiled areas in PWS, particularly within the Knight Island group and the Kenai Peninsula. In sediments, yearly mean concentrations of total petroleum hydrocarbons ranged from < 60 micrograms/g in reference beds to 62,258 micrograms/g wet wt., or approximately 0 to 523 micrograms/g dry wt. total polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (TPAHs). In mussels, mean TPAH concentrations ranged up to 8.1 micrograms/g dry wt. Hydrocarbon concentrations declined significantly with time in some, but not all mussels and sediments, and should reach background levels within three decades of the spill in most beds. In 1995, mean hydrocarbon concentration was greater than twice background concentration in sediments from 27 of 34 sites, and in mussels from 18 of 31 sites.     

Removal of ammonia toxicity in marine sediment TIEs: a comparison of Ulva lactuca,zeolite and aeration methods

Toxicity Identification Evaluations (TIEs) can be used to determine the specific toxicant(s), including ammonia, causing toxicity observed in marine sediments. Two primary TIE manipulations are available for characterizing and identifying ammonia in marine sediments: Ulva lactuca addition and zeolite addition. In this study, we compared the efficacy of these methods to (1) remove NH(x) and NH(3) from overlying and interstitial waters and (2) reduce toxicity to the amphipod Ampelisca abdita and mysid Americamysis bahia using both spiked and environmentally contaminated sediments. The utility of aeration for removing NH(x) and NH(3) during a marine sediment TIE was also evaluated preliminarily. In general, the U. lactuca and zeolite addition methods performed similarly well at removing spiked NH(x) and NH(3) from overlying and interstitial waters compared to an unmanipulated sediment. Toxicity to the amphipod was reduced approximately the same by both methods. However, toxicity to the mysid was most effectively reduced by the U. lactuca addition indicating this method functions best with epibenthic species exposed to ammonia in the water column. Aeration removed NH(x) and NH(3) from seawater when the pH was adjusted to 10; however, very little ammonia was removed at ambient pHs ( approximately 8.0). This comparison demonstrates both U. lactuca and zeolite addition methods are effective TIE tools for reducing the concentrations and toxicity of ammonia in whole sediment toxicity tests.     

Predicting conductance due to upconing using neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed to accurately predict highly time-variable specific conductance values in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Conductance values in the fresh water lens aquifer change in response to vertical displacements of the brackish zone and fresh water-salt water interface, which are caused by variable pumping and climate conditions. Unlike physical-based models, which require hydrologic parameter inputs, such as horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, porosity, and fluid densities, ANNs can "learn" system behavior from easily measurable variables. In this study, the ANN input predictor variables were initial conductance, total precipitation, mean daily temperature, and total pumping extraction. The ANNs were used to predict salinity (specific conductance) at a single monitoring well located near a high-capacity municipal-supply well over time periods ranging from 30 d to several years. Model accuracy was compared against both measured/interpolated values and predictions were made with linear regression, and in general, excellent prediction accuracy was achieved. For example, although the average percent change of conductance over 90-d periods was 39%, the absolute mean prediction error achieved with the ANN was only 1.1%. The ANNs were also used to conduct a sensitivity analysis that quantified the importance of each of the four predictor variables on final conductance values, providing valuable insights into the dynamics of the system. The results demonstrate that the ANN technology can serve as a powerful and accurate prediction and management tool, minimizing degradation of ground water quality to the extent possible by identifying appropriate pumping policies under variable and/or changing climate conditions.     

Cloning and expression of metallothionein mutant alpha-KKS-alpha in Anabaena sp. PCC 7120

The mouse metallothionein (mMT) mutant alpha-KKS-alpha has a higher capacity for binding heavy metals than wild type mMT. The mMT mutant alpha-KKS-alpha gene was placed under the control of the strong promoter PpbsA to generate the intermediate vector pRL-alpha-KKS-alpha. pRLalpha-KKS-alpha was then linked with the plasmid pDC-08 to construct shuttle expression vector pDC-alphaKKS-alpha. This expression vector was transformed into Anabaena sp. PCC 7120 using triparental conjugative transfer. After antibiotic selection (ampicillin and kanamycin), transgenic Anabaena was identified by PCR and Western blotting. The expression level of the mMT mutation alpha-KKS-alpha reached 7.4 mg/g dry cells weight, as detected by ELISA, and heavy metal resistance of the transgenic Anabaena was significantly improved.     

Dealing with locally-driven degradation: A quick start option under REDD+

The paper reviews a number of challenges associated with reducing degradation and its related emissions through national approaches to REDD+ under UNFCCC policy. It proposes that in many countries, it may in the short run be easier to deal with the kinds of degradation that result from locally driven community over-exploitation of forest for livelihoods, than from selective logging or fire control. Such degradation is low-level, but chronic, and is experienced over very large forest areas. Community forest management programmes tend to result not only in reduced degradation, but also in forest enhancement; moreover they are often popular, and do not require major political shifts. In principle these approaches therefore offer a quick start option for REDD+. Developing reference emissions levels for low-level locally driven degradation is difficult however given that stock losses and gains are too small to be identified and measured using remote sensing, and that in most countries there is little or no forest inventory data available. We therefore propose that forest management initiatives at the local level, such as those promoted by community forest management programmes, should monitor, and be credited for, only the net increase in carbon stock over the implementation period, as assessed by ground level surveys at the start and end of the period. This would also resolve the problem of nesting (ensuring that all credits are accounted for against the national reference emission level), since communities and others at the local level would be rewarded only for increased sequestration, while the national reference emission level would deal only with reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation.