Modelling the poroelasticity of rocks and ice

For many geophysical and astrophysical applications the relationship between physical bulk properties and porosity is needed. As part of the preparation for the 'Rosetta' comet rendezvous mission, a simple model for the porosity dependence of the elastic properties of granular media, i.e. the elastic moduli and the propagation velocities of elastic waves, has been developed based on textural properties and the contact stiffness of the constituent particles. It is shown that the derived relationships fit very well with sandstone data. The model is also consistent with data for snow and ice and is in agreement with the transformation mechanisms from snow to ice. A short review shows the relevance to another physical bulk property, the thermal conductivity.     

Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies

Summary ?In many instances, snow cover and duration are a major controlling factor on a range of environmental systems in mountain regions. When assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain ecosystems and river basins whose origin lie in the Alps, one of the key controls on such systems will reside in changes in snow amount and duration. At present, regional climate models or statistical downscaling techniques, which are the principal methods applied to the derivation of climatic variables in a future, changing climate, do not provide adequate information at the scales required for investigations in which snow is playing a major role. A study has thus been undertaken on the behavior of snow in the Swiss Alps, in particular the duration of the seasonal snow-pack, on the basis of observational data from a number of Swiss climatological stations. It is seen that there is a distinct link between snow-cover duration and height (i.e., temperature), and that this link has a specific “signature” according to the type of winter. Milder winters are associated with higher precipitation levels than colder winters, but with more solid precipitation at elevations exceeding 1,700–2,000 m above sea-level, and more liquid precipitation below. These results can be combined within a single diagram, linking winter minimum temperature, winter precipitation, and snow-cover duration. The resulting contour surfaces can then be used to assess the manner in which the length of the snow-season may change according to specified shifts in temperature and precipitation. While the technique is clearly empirical, it can be combined with regional climate model information to provide a useful estimate of the length of the snow season with snow cover, for various climate-impacts studies. Received May 14, 2002; revised August 12, 2002; accepted August 17, 2002     

Toward a physically plausible upper bound of sea-level rise projections

Anthropogenic sea-level rise (SLR) causes considerable risks. Designing a sound SLR risk-management strategy requires careful consideration of decision-relevant uncertainties such as the reasonable upper bound of future SLR. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment reported a likely upper SLR bound in the year 2100 near 0.6 m (meter). More recent studies considering semi-empirical modeling approaches and kinematic constraints on glacial melting suggest a reasonable 2100 SLR upper bound of approximately 2 m. These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and/or observational constraints on ocean heat uptake. Here we quantify the effects of key parametric uncertainties and observational constraints on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three-dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake. Considering these effects nearly doubles the contribution of thermosteric SLR compared to previous estimates and increases the reasonable upper bound of 2100 SLR projections by 0.25 m. As an illustrative example of the effect of overconfidence, we show how neglecting thermosteric uncertainty in projections of the SLR upper bound can considerably bias risk analysis and hence the design of adaptation strategies. For conditions close to the Port of Los Angeles, the 0.25 m increase in the reasonable upper bound can result in a flooding-risk increase by roughly three orders of magnitude. Results provide evidence that relatively minor underestimation of the upper bound of projected SLR can lead to major downward biases of future flooding risks.     

宽角反射、折射地震数据与重力数据综合解释龙门山及邻近地区地壳结构

青藏高原东部的隆升机制一直都是地学界的研究热点,研究学者们提出和发展了多种岩石圈变形模型,而存在多种模型的主要原因之一是对青藏高原东部地壳及岩石圈结构认识不足。本文主要针对SinoProbe-02项目横跨龙门山断裂带、全长400多公里的宽角、折射地震数据及重力数据进行联合反演和综合解释。研究结果表明,龙门山及邻近地区地壳结构可明确划分为上地壳、中地壳和下地壳。上地壳上层为沉积层,龙门山断裂带以西大部分区域被三叠纪复理岩覆盖,而在龙日坝断裂与岷江断裂之间出现了密度为2.7g/cm³的高速异常体;向东靠近龙门山地区,沉积层厚度逐渐减薄。中地壳速度变化不均一,而且变形强烈;若尔盖盆地和龙门山断裂带下方出现明显低速带;中地壳在龙门山西侧厚度加厚,在岷江断裂下方和四川盆地靠近龙门山断裂带地区附近厚度达到最大。莫霍面整体深度从东往西增厚,最厚可达56 km。本次研究得到的地壳结构和密度分布分析结果表明现有的地壳厚度和物质组成不足以支撑龙门山及邻近地区目前所达到的隆升高度,因此四川盆地刚性基底西缘因挤压作用产生的弯曲应力也是该地区抬升的重要条件之一。     

The assessment of the age of scleractinian coral species (Anthozoa: Scleractinia) based on the temperature ranges of their habitat

Until now, the age of deep-water scleractinians was determined based only on rare finds of these corals in terrestrial sequences, which constitute <10% of their known diversity. Inasmuch as most of the non-zooxanthellate coral species dwell in the ocean beyond the shelf zone (up to the abyssal depths) and their fossil remains are missing from terrestrial sections, we propose a new approach to the assessment of their age based on paleoecological features: the seawater temperatures in the geological past and the habitat temperature ranges established for 53 coral species. The study confirmed our previous assumption concerning the very young age of the deep-water fauna.     

Water and nitrogen movement through a semiarid dryland agricultural catchment: Seasonal and decadal trends

Water and nutrient budgets in dryland agroecosystems are difficult to manage for efficiency and water quality. This is particularly true where complex terrain and soilscapes interact with pronounced hydrologic seasonality. The purpose of this research was to understand water and hydrologic nitrogen (N) export from a hillslope dryland agroecosystem in a semiarid region where most precipitation occurs outside the growing season. We studied 13 years (2001–2013) of records of water and N inputs and outputs from a 12 ha no‐till artificially drained catchment in the semiarid Palouse Basin of eastern Washington State, USA. Fall‐ and winter‐dominated annual precipitation averaged 462 mm. About 350 mm went to evapotranspiration; crops used ~160 mm from stored soil water during the summer dry‐down season. Soil water replenishment after crop senescence, during the fall wet‐up season, delayed the threshold onset of the high‐discharge season until December. Winter‐dominated drainage fluxes averaged 111 mm or 24% of annual precipitation. Nitrate export in drainage averaged 15 kg·N·ha^?1·year^?1, which was about 10 times the average rate of dissolved organic N export and 15% of the average rate of N application in chemical fertilizer. Fertilizer applications to the catchment were reduced, due to cropping changes, by 1/3 during the last 5 years of the study; however, no corresponding reduction was observed in the nitrate export flux. This lack of change could not be attributed to mineralization of the soil‐organic N legacy of fertilization nor to hydrologic lag of the catchment. Likeliest explanations are (a) despite the reduction, N application continued to exceed crop uptake and accumulation in organic matter; (b) seasonal and interannual variability of catchment connectivity resulted in year‐to‐year field‐scale nitrate storage and carryover. Water and N use efficiencies observed here may be near maximum obtainable for existing crops in this climate. Substantial improvements that would also address multiple environmental issues associated with the N cascade may involve shifts to perennial systems and/or rotations in which N is fixed biologically.     

Balloon-borne polarimetry

For about two weeks in 1995, the balloon-borne Flare Genesis Experiment will continuously observe the Sun well above the turbulent, image-blurring layers of the Earth's atmosphere. The polarization-free 80 cm telescope will supply images to a liquid-crystal based vector magnetograph, which will measure magnetic features at a resolution of 0.2 arcsec. An electrically tunable lithium-niobate Fabry-Perot provides a spectral resolution of about 0.015 nm. In a follow-up series of Antarctic balloon flights, the Flare Genesis Experiment (FGE) will provide unprecedented details about sunspots, flares, magnetic elements, filaments, and the quiet solar atmosphere.