Global warming: a review of this mostly settled issue

Global warming and attendant climate change have been controversial for at least a decade. This is largely because of its societal implications since the science is largely straightforward. With the recent publication of the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Group 1) there has been renewed interest and controversy about how certain the scientific community is of its conclusions: that humans are influencing the climate and that global temperatures will continue to rise rapidly in this century. This review attempts to update what is known and in particular what advances have been made in the past 5 years or so. It does not attempt to be comprehensive. Rather it focuses on the most controversial issues, which are actually few in number. They are:

• Is the surface temperature record accurate or is it biased by heat from cities, etc.?
• Is that record significantly different from past warmings such as the Medieval Warming Period?
• Are human greenhouse gases changing the climate more than the sun?
• Can we model climate and predict its future, or is it just too complex and chaotic?
• Are there any other changes in climate other than warming, and can they be attributed to the warming?

Finally there is a very brief discussion of the societal policy response to the scientific message. Note that much of the introductory material in each section is essentially the same as that which appears in Keller 2003 (hereafter referred to as OR = original review) and its update (Keller 2007). Despite continued uncertainties, the review finds an affirmative answer to these questions. Of particular interest are advances that seem to explain why satellites do not see as much warming as surface instruments, how we are getting a good idea of recent paleo-climates, and why the twentieth century temperature record was so complex. It makes the point that in each area new information could come to light that would change our thinking on the quantitative magnitude and timing of anthropogenic warming, but it is unlikely to alter the basic conclusions.     

Adaptation of the torus and Rosborough approach to radial base functions

The most common approach for the processing of data of gravity field satellite missions is the so-called time-wise approach. In this approach satellite data are considered as a time series and processed by a standard least-squares approach. This approach has a very strong flexibility but it is computationally very demanding. To improve the computational efficiency and numerical stability, the so-called torus and Rosborough approaches have been developed. So far, these approaches have been applied only for global gravity field determinations, based on spherical harmonics as basis functions. For regional applications basis functions with a local support are superior to spherical harmonics, because they provide the same approximation quality with much less parameters. So far, torus and Rosborough approach have been developed for spherical harmonics only. Therefore, the paper aims at the development and testing of the torus and Rosborough approach for regional gravity field improvements, based on radial basis functions as basis functions. The developed regional Rosborough approach is tested against a changing gravity field produced by simulated ice-mass changes over Greenland. With only 350 parameters a recovery of the simulated mass changes with a relative accuracy of 5% is possible.     

华北克拉通北缘(怀来-苏尼特右旗)地壳结构

2009年,中国地质科学院地质研究所与美国俄克拉荷马大学合作实施了一条长453 km的深地震反射、宽角反射与折射、三分量反射地震联合探测剖面. 剖面南起怀来盆地,向北依次穿过燕山造山带西缘、内蒙地轴、白乃庙弧带、温都尔庙杂岩带,到达索伦缝合带. 其中,宽角反射与折射剖面采用8个0.5~1.5 t炸药震源激发,使用300套Texan单分量数字检波器接收,获得了高质量的地震资料. 通过资料分析和处理,识别出沉积层及结晶基底的折射波（Pg）、来自上地壳底界面的反射波（Pcp）,中地壳底界面的反射波（Plp）,莫霍界面的反射波（Pmp）及上地幔顶部的折射波（Pn）等5个震相. 分别采用Hole有限差分层析成像和Rayinvr算法对华北克拉通北缘及中亚造山带南部进行了上地壳P波速度结构成像和全地壳二维射线追踪反演成像. 结果显示：（1）中亚造山带地壳厚度~40 km,变化平缓,低于全球平均造山带地壳平均厚度,可能为造山后区域伸展的结果. 阴山-燕山带附近莫霍明显加深,推测其为燕山期造山过程形成的山根,但该山根很可能在后期被改造. （2）测线中部地壳上部速度较高,对应地表大面积花岗岩出露,而下地壳速度较低,速度梯度低,呈通道状,推测其可能曾为古亚洲洋向南俯冲消亡的主动陆缘,并在碰撞后演变为伸展环境下岩浆侵入的通道. （3）华北克拉通北缘与中亚造山带显示出不同速度变化特征,前者变化相对缓而后者则变化剧烈,二者的分界出现在赤峰-白云鄂博断裂附近.     

Isotopic evidence for temporal variation in proportion of seasonal precipitation since the last glacial time in the inland Pacific Northwest of the USA

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns determine the quantity and seasonality of precipitation, the major source of water in most terrestrial ecosystems. Oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) dynamics of the present-day hydrologic system in the Palouse region of the northwestern U.S.A. indicate a seasonal correlation between the δ¹⁸O values of precipitation and temperature, but no seasonal trends of δ¹⁸O records in soil water and shallow groundwater. Their isotope values are close to those of winter precipitation because the Palouse receives  75% of its precipitation during winter. Palouse Loess deposits contain late Pleistocene pedogenic carbonate having ca. 2 to 3‰ higher δ¹⁸O values and up to 5‰ higher carbon isotope (δ¹³C) values than Holocene and modern carbonates. The late Pleistocene δ¹⁸O values are best explained by a decrease in isotopically light winter precipitation relative to the modern winter-dominated infiltration. The δ¹³C values are attributed to a proportional increase of atmospheric CO₂ in soil CO₂ due to a decrease in soil respiration rate and ¹³C discrimination in plants under much drier paleoclimate conditions than today. The regional climate difference was likely related to anticyclonic circulation over the Pleistocene Laurentide and Ice Sheet.     

XANES evidence for sulphur speciation in Mn-, Ni- and W-bearing silicate melts

S K-edge XANES and Mn-, W- and Ni-XANES and EXAFS spectra of silicate glasses synthesised at 1400 °C and 1 bar with compositions in the CaO-MgO-Al₂O₃-SiO₂-S plus MnO, NiO, or WO₃ systems were used to investigate sulphur speciation in silicate glasses.S K-edge spectra comprised a composite peak with an edge between 2470 and 2471.4 eV, which was attributed to S²⁻, and a peak of variable height with an edge at 2480.2-2480.8 eV, which is consistent with the presence of S⁶⁺. The latter peak was attributed to sample oxidation during sample storage. W-rich samples produced an additional lower energy peak at 2469.8 eV that is tentatively attributed to the existence of S 3p orbitals hybridised with the W 5d states.Deconvolution of the composite peak reveals that the composite peak for Mn-bearing samples fits well to a model that combines three Lorentzians at 2473.1, 2474.9 and 2476.2 eV with an arctan edge step. The composite peak for W-bearing samples fits well to the same combination plus an additional Lorentzian at 2469.8 eV. The ratio of the proportions of the signal accounted for by peaks at 2473.1 and 2476.2 eV correlates with Mn:Ca molar ratios, but not with W:Ca ratios. Spectra from Ni-bearing samples were qualitatively similar but S levels were too low to allow robust quantification of peak components. Some part of the signal accounted for by the 2473.1 eV peak was therefore taken to record the formation of Mn-S melt species, while the 2469.8 peak is interpreted to record the formation of W-S melt species. The 2474.9 and 2476.2 eV peaks were taken to be dominated by Ca-S and Mg-S interactions. However, a 1:1 relationship between peak components and specific energy transitions is not proposed. This interpretation is consistent with known features of the lower parts of the conduction band in monosulphide minerals and indicates a similarity between sulphur species in the melts and the monosulphides. S-XANES spectra cannot be reproduced by a combination of the spectra of the component element monosulphides.Mn-, W- and Ni-XANES and EXAFS for synthetic glasses without sulphide exsolution did not show any sensitivity to the presence of sulphur, which is unsurprising as S:O ratios were sufficiently low that metals would be mostly co-ordinated by O. Mn EXAFS spectra were consistent with divalent Mn in 5 co-ordinated Mn-O melt species. W spectra were consistent with tetrahedrally co-ordinated hexavalent W, most likely in scheelite-like melt species, and Ni spectra were consistent with [4] co-ordinated divalent Ni. These results indicate lower co-ordinations for both W and Ni than those inferred by some previous workers. Cation co-ordination may reflect the proportion of non-bridging oxygens, which is lower in the Ca-rich and Al-poor samples investigated here than for previous studies.     

Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania

With a paroxysmal ash eruption on 4 September 2007 and the highly explosive activity continuing in 2008, Oldoinyo Lengai (OL) has dramatically changed its behavior, crater morphology, and magma composition after 25 years of quiet extrusion of fluid natrocarbonatite lava. This explosive activity resembles the explosive phases of 1917, 1940–1941, and 1966–1967, which were characterized by mixed ashes with dominantly nephelinitic and natrocarbonatitic components. Ash and lapilli from the 2007–2008 explosive phase were collected on the slopes of OL as well as on the active cinder cone, which now occupies the entire north crater having buried completely all earlier natrocarbonatite features. The lapilli and ash samples comprise nepheline, wollastonite, combeite, Na-åkermanite, Ti-andradite, resorbed pyroxene and Fe–Ti oxides, and a Na–Ca carbonate phase with high but varying phosphorus contents which is similar, but not identical, to the common gregoryite phenocrysts in natrocarbonatite. Lapilli from the active cone best characterize the erupted material as carbonated combeite–wollastonite–melilite nephelinite. The juvenile components represent a fundamentally new magma composition for OL, containing 25–30 wt.% SiO₂, with 7–11 wt.% CO₂, high alkalies (Na₂O 15–19%, K₂O 4–5%), and trace-element signatures reminiscent of natrocarbonatite enrichments. These data define an intermediate composition between natrocarbonatite and nephelinite, with about one third natrocarbonatite and two thirds nephelinite component. The data are consistent with a model in which the carbonated silicate magma has evolved from the common combeite–wollastonite nephelinite (CWN) of OL by enrichment of CO₂ and alkalies and is close to the liquid immiscible separation of natrocarbonatite from carbonated nephelinite. Material ejected in April/May 2008 indicates reversion to a more common CWN composition.     

Fundamental changes in the activity of the natrocarbonatite volcano Oldoinyo Lengai, Tanzania

On September 4, 2007, after 25 years of effusive natrocarbonatite eruptions, the eruptive activity of Oldoinyo Lengai (OL), N Tanzania, changed abruptly to episodic explosive eruptions. This transition was preceded by a voluminous lava eruption in March 2006, a year of quiescence, resumption of natrocarbonatite eruptions in June 2007, and a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in July 2007. Despite the lack of ground-based monitoring, the evolution in OL eruption dynamics is documented based on the available field observations, ASTER and MODIS satellite images, and almost-daily photos provided by local pilots. Satellite data enabled identification of a phase of voluminous lava effusion in the 2 weeks prior to the onset of explosive eruptions. After the onset, the activity varied from 100 m high ash jets to 2–15 km high violent, steady or unsteady, eruption columns dispersing ash to 100 km distance. The explosive eruptions built up a ∼400 m wide, ∼75 m high intra-crater pyroclastic cone. Time series data for eruption column height show distinct peaks at the end of September 2007 and February 2008, the latter being associated with the first pyroclastic flows to be documented at OL. Chemical analyses of the erupted products, presented in a companion paper (Keller et al. 2010), show that the 2007–2008 explosive eruptions are associated with an undersaturated carbonated silicate melt. This new phase of explosive eruptions provides constraints on the factors causing the transition from natrocarbonatite effusive eruptions to explosive eruptions of carbonated nephelinite magma, observed repetitively in the last 100 years at OL.     

Isotopic composition of Sr,Nd, and Pb in pirssonite,shortite and calcite carbonatites from Oldoinyo Lengai volcano,Tanzania

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Observations of atmospheric water vapor above the Tharsis volcanoes on Mars with the OMEGA/MEx imaging spectrometer

The OMEGA imaging spectrometer onboard the Mars Express spacecraft is particularly well suited to study in detail specific regions of Mars, thanks to its high spatial resolution and its high signal-to-noise ratio. We investigate the behavior of atmospheric water vapor over the four big volcanoes located on the Tharsis plateau (Olympus, Ascraeus, Pavonis and Arsia Mons) using the 2.6 μm band, which is the strongest and most sensitive H₂O band in the OMEGA spectral range. Our data sample covers the end of MY26 and the whole MY27, with gaps only in the late northern spring and in northern autumn. The most striking result of our retrievals is the increase of water vapor mixing ratio from the valley to the summit of volcanoes. Corresponding column density is often almost constant, despite a factor of ∼5 decrease in air mass from the bottom to the top. This peculiar water enrichment on the volcanoes is present in 75% of the orbits in our sample. The seasonal distribution of such enrichment hints at a seasonal dependence, with a minimum during the northern summer and a maximum around the northern spring equinox. The enrichment possibly also has a diurnal trend, being the orbits with a high degree of enrichment concentrated in the early morning. However, the season and the solar time of the observations, due to the motion of the spacecraft, are correlated, then the two dependences cannot be clearly disentangled. Several orbits exhibit also spatially localized enrichment structures, usually ring- or crescent-shaped. We retrieve also the height of the saturation level over the volcanoes. The results show a strong minimum around the aphelion season, due to the low temperatures, while it raises quickly before and after this period. The enrichment is possibly generated by the local circulation characteristic of the volcano region, which can transport upslope significant quantities of water vapor. The low altitude of the saturation level during the early summer can then hinder the transport of water during this season. The influence of the coupling between atmosphere and surface, due mainly to the action of the regoliths, can also contribute partially to the observed phenomenon.