Primary study on regional paleoearthquake recurrence behavior

IntroductionPaleoearthquake studies belong to the field of active fault study. It has been becoming a significant tool in seismotectonic studies and seismic hazard assessment. On one hand, it prolongsearthquake recording history so that researchers can study seismic recurrent behavior and discussearthquake repeat model in a long time span over several recurrent periods. On the other hand,parameters obtained through paleoearthquake studies are directly used as basic inpUts for seismichazard as…     

几种新型仪器在水文测验中的应用分析

水文测验是水文工作的一个重要组成部分,可为河床演变和各种水利工程的设计提供第一手的资料。新型量测仪器的应用大大提高了水文测验的效率,相对于传统的测验方法,正日益显示出其优势。本文就水文测验中流速、水位、波浪、含沙量、泥沙级配、推移质输沙率等代表性新型仪器做一初步的介绍,并讨论了其中存在的问题和以后有可能发展的方向。     

A Numerical Study of the Severe Heavy Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Haitang （2005）

Typhoons landing in the central and north of Fujian Province often seriously impact Zhejiang Province. Much attention has been given to exceptionally torrential rain in the South/North Yandang mountainous regions in the southeast of Zhejiang Province associated with typhoon-landing. Typhoon Haitang （2005） is a typical case of such a category, which landed in Huangqi Town of Lianjiang County in Fujian Province, and meanwhile greatly impacted Southeast Zhejiang. A numerical simulation has been performed with the PSU/NCAR non-hydrostatic model MM5V3 to study the torrential rain associated with Typhoon Haitang. The comparison of simulated and observed rainfalls shows that the MM5V3 was able to well simulate not only the intensity but also the locations of severe heavy rain of Typhoon Haitang, especially the locations of the south/north heavy rain center areas in the South/North Yandang mountainous regions. Meanwhile, the diagnostic analysis has been also carried out for better understanding of the severe heavy rain mechanism by using the model output data of high resolution. The diagnostic analysis indicates that the westward tilt of the axis of vorticity from lower layer to upper layer over the south heavy rain center area and the coupled structure of convergence in the lower layer and divergence in the upper level over the north heavy rain center area, were both propitious to stronger upward motion in the layers between the mid and upper atmosphere, and the secondary circulation induced by the vertical shear of the ambient winds further strengthened the upward motion in the heavy rain areas. After Haitang passed through Taiwan Island into the Taiwan Strait, the water vapor east of Taiwan Island was continuously transferred by typhoon circulation towards South Wenzhou, leading to the torrential rainfall in the South Yandang mountainous region south of Wenzhou. Subsequently~ Haitang moved northwards, the water vapor belt east of Taiwan Island slowly advanced northwards, the precipitation rate obviously enhanced i     

随机物理倾向扰动在风暴尺度集合预报中的影响研究

为深入探究随机物理倾向扰动（Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies,SPPT）方案在风暴尺度集合预报中的影响,基于WRF模式利用FNL资料对SPPT方案中的3个参量分别进行敏感性试验,得到SPPT方案的最佳参数配置,并在此基础上分析SPPT方案模拟的降水分布特征。结果表明:SPPT方案敏感性试验中,去相关时间选择6 h时构造的集合成员可信度更高,逐时降水评分效果在积分中后期较高,对于暴雨及以上量级的评分技巧最优;造成降水主要天气系统的维持时间对该变量的选取有较大的影响。去相关空间尺度选择100 km的集合试验更为可靠,对降水预报技巧较高;同时该变量的选取与天气过程中的大尺度信息、中小尺度系统的活跃以及模式的空间分辨率有密切联系。通过对离散度和离群值分析认为扰动振幅选择0.525最为合理。SPPT方案集合成员在局部地区可以较大幅度地改变降水量,对降水落区的准确模拟存在一定的局限性。      

敦煌场地CBERS-02 CCD传感器在轨绝对辐射定标研究

对资源一号卫星02星（CBERS-02）,为深入其定量化分析,定期在敦煌绝对辐射校正场地进行了地面同步测量,开展了更新在轨绝对辐射定标研究。另外,运用地表反射率和大气光学特性参量数据,计算出CBERS-02CCD传感器4个波段的绝对辐射标定系数。同时,利用2004年8月25目的Landsat-5 TM图像数据对CBERS-02 CCD传感器的辐射特性进行交叉定标,验证分析了CBERS-02 CCD传感器场地绝对辐射定标的基本特性及其可靠性。另外,为CBERS后续星的传感器改进,提供了分析参量。     

夏季热带西太平洋对流与长江中下游降水关系的研究

利用1979～2001年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析格点资料、OLR和中国160站的月平均降水资料,研究了夏季热带西太平洋对流活动与长江中下游降水的关系.结果表明,夏季热带西太平洋上空对流活动强(弱)时,长江中下游地区夏季降水显著偏少(多).而西太平洋副热带高压在夏季热带西太平洋对流和长江中下游地区降水之间起到了桥梁作用,通过副高的东西位置、面积、强度异常等影响东亚夏季风异常,进而造成长江中下游地区夏季降水异常.另外,热带西太平洋对流异常显著对应着在热带和中纬度地区呈经向分布的Rossby波列(即东亚遥相关波列),该波列结构的异常与长江中下游地区夏季降水异常也有密切的关系.     

高放废物深地质处置库预选场址的古温度环境

填隙矿物的流体包裹体研究与矿物的同位素地球化学研究可较好地揭示高放废物深地质处置库预选场址的深部热环境及古地下水热历史。中国高放废物深地质处置库第一个预选场深部花岗岩内填隙矿物的同位素、矿物学以及流体包裹体研究结果显示,甘肃北山地区花岗岩深部至少存在两种环境：浅部花岗岩(0～150m)填隙方解石的δ^18O=-18．2‰～-15．8‰(PDB),δ^13C=-9．5‰～-8．4‰(PDB),包裹体的均一温度(th)为140～160℃,包裹体的冰点温度为-2．5～-1．5℃,地下水可能以大气降水成因为主,且可能混合了盆地卤水并与花岗岩反应,形成温度、盐度(2％～5％,NaCleq)均较低的地下水;在350～550m区段内(深部花岗岩),其δ^18O值为-32．6‰～-17．6‰(PDB),δ^13C值为-10．5‰～-6．2‰(PDB),流体包裹体的均一温度较其上部的稍高,为160～190℃,而其冰点温度则较低,为-4～-3．2℃(盐度5％～8％,NaCleq),地下水类型为大气降水与盆地古卤水的混合,以大气降水为主。石英的氧同位素组成和计算的古地下水氧同位素组成则进一步表明,花岗岩深部(350～550m)也存在两种温度环境：较低温度(140～160℃)、较高盐度(5．5％～8％,NaCleq)的地下水;较高温度(220～240℃)、较低盐度(3％～5．5％,NaCleq)的地下水,其地下水类型为大气降水和与花岗岩平衡的卤水。     

基于物理约束扰动的EnSRF雷达资料同化

在完善WRF集合均方根滤波同化系统的双向嵌套预报方案、雷达资料质量控制方案和多微物理过程积分方案的基础上,引入了一种扰动势函数、流函数的尺度较小、物理意义更明显的集合初始扰动新方案.通过台风“桑美”登陆过程中的多普勒雷达资料直接同化试验,对比新扰动方案与目前应用较多的背景误差协方差随机扰动和全场随机扰动方案,对集合滤波同化效果的影响.试验结果表明,3种初始扰动方案都有效改善了台风内部结构,但新方案由于尺度更小、结构更为合理,其同化效果也更为显著,提高了对台风路径、中心最低气压、最大风速及降水的预报质量.     

基于降雨滑坡机理的水文过程监测系统设计

本文在简要回顾前人降雨滑坡水文过程研究的基础上,针对深圳市某一填土滑坡,设计了降雨诱发滑坡的水文过程全自动监测系统,可以用来监测滑坡点的降雨特征、饱和-非饱和入渗过程、自由水渗流过程及微承压水渗流过程等降雨条件下斜坡的水文响应过程。该监测系统的提出在降雨条件下微承压水渗流过程的监测方法,体现了基于降雨滑坡水文过程的监测设计思想,不仅有助于降雨滑坡水文作用机理的研究,还给相关工作提供了有益的借鉴意义。     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXTREME PRECIPITATION ANOMALY IN SOUTH OF CHINA AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Based on the daily rainfall datasets of 743 stations in China and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data during the period of 1960–2003, the relationship between the anomalous extreme precipitation (EP) in the south of China and atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is analyzed. The phenomenon of opposite changes in the sea level pressure and geopotential height anomalies over the Ross Sea and New Zealand is defined as RN, and the index which describes this phenomenon is expressed as RNI. The results show that the RN has barotropic structure and the RNI in May is closely related to the June EP amount in the south of China (SCEP) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The positive correlations between the May RNI at each level and the June SCEP are significant, and the related simultaneous correlations between the RNI and the June SCEP are also positive, suggesting that the potential impact of RN on the SCEP persists from May to June. Therefore, RN in May can be taken as one of the predictive factors for the June SCEP. Furthermore, one possible physical mechanism by which the RN affects the June SCEP is a barotropic meridional teleconnection emanating from the Southern Hemisphere to the western North Pacific.