塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中地区大气气溶胶散射系数影响因子

利用2010年塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔克拉玛干沙漠大气环境观测试验站单波段(525nm)积分浊度计和PM10自动监测仪、能见度仪器观测资料,结合塔中地面气象观测资料,分析影响塔中气溶胶散射系数的各因子。结果表明:(1)散射系数和PM10质量浓度具有明显的正相关关系,相关程度秋季最大,达0.96;夏季次之,为0.94;冬季最小,为0.91。(2)质量散射系数3月最小,10月最大;四季中,春季最小,为0.60m2·g-1,秋季最大,为1.38m2·g-1。塔中站气溶胶质量散射系数小于河北张北站、甘肃民勤站、兰州西固区,大于内蒙古锡林浩特站、希腊克里特岛、以色列内盖夫沙漠。(3)能见度与散射系数呈显著负幂相关关系,相关系数为0.80,其中夏、秋、冬季的相关系数都超过了年相关系数,分别是0.913、0.908、和0.857,春季最低为0.723。(4)风速较大时,散射系数的值也比较大,两者呈现正相关关系,相关系数为0.45。散射系数小于500 Mm-1时,主要分布于ENE和NE;大于500Mm^-1以上则主要是在ENE、NE、E风向。在ESE风向时,散射系数的平均值最大,其次是SSE方向上,最小值是S风向。     

国外生态旅游研究进展及启示

作为替代性旅游和可持续旅游的实现形式,生态旅游从提出就受到学者们的重视。本文以Web of Science核心合辑收录的国外生态旅游期刊文章为基础,对筛选出的546篇文献进行综述分析,梳理和归纳相应的研究热点和研究方法,并从生态旅游内涵、利益相关者、客源市场、目的地、影响和评估6方面阐明国外生态旅游的研究进展和主要内容。结果表明：国外生态旅游研究以应用为导向,具有研究区域资源特征明显、研究对象不断扩展、研究内容逐渐深入的特点,并呈现跨学科、多视角的研究态势。结合国外的研究经验,本文提出未来中国应就完善生态旅游理论体系、妥善处理利益相关者的关系、总结生态旅游者行为规律、拓展目的地的研究尺度和管理模式、重视生态旅游的影响研究和优化效果评估方法6方面加强研究,以促使研究体系完善和优化。     

环境规制、地方保护与中国污染密集型产业布局

污染密集型产业在促进区域经济增长的同时会对区域生态环境带来巨大威胁,其发展布局会受到地方保护和环境规制的双重影响。1980-2014年中国污染密集型产业的发展经历了缓慢增长、快速扩张和结构转型3个阶段,总体呈现“分散—集中—分散”的空间特征,中部省份是现阶段承接污染密集型产业转移的主要地区。通过建立区域属性模型、区域—产业交互项模型,定量分析环境规制、地方保护对污染密集型产业布局空间变化的影响,检验“污染避难所假说”和“波特假说”,发现环境规制和地方保护已成为污染密集型产业布局的重要影响因素,但存在显著的产业异质性和区域差异性;污染程度高的产业易受到环境规制的影响;相比高税收产业,高国有比重的产业更易受到地方的保护;环境规制和地方保护作为两种相反的力量,彼此之间相互抑制;环境规制的作用在东部地区比较突出,而中、西部地区地方保护的作用更为明显。为防止中西部地区成为污染密集型产业的“避难所”,应因地因时制宜制定差异化政策,促进经济与环境保护的协调发展。     

Characterizing mixed-use buildings based on multi-source big data

To-date few research has successfully integrated big data from multiple sources to characterize urban mixed-use buildings. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic model to integrate multi-source and geospatial big data (social network data, taxi trajectories, Points of Interest and remote sensing images) to characterize urban mixed-use buildings. The usefulness of our model is demonstrated with a case study of the Tianhe District in megacity Guangzhou, China. The model predicted building functions at 85% accuracy based on ground truth data from field surveys. We further explored the spatial patterns of the identified building functions. Most mixed-use buildings are located along major streets. Our proposed model can identify mixed-use buildings in a city; information is useful for planning evaluation and urban policymaking.     

Analysis of Spatial Mismatch of Tourism Development in Guangdong Province

The spatial mismatch situation of tourism development in Guangdong Province is analyzed by gravity model and two-dimensional matrix based on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, and the results are visualized using ArcGIS software. This study finds that varying degrees of spatial mismatch exist between the level of tourism development, abundance of tourism resources and accessibility of tourism locations in the 21 cities in Guangdong Province. The gravity centers for tourism economy, tourism resources and tourism location are (113.55° E, 23.00° N), (113.69° E, 23.21° N) and (113.74° E, 22.86° N), respectively. According to the two-dimensional combinatorial matrices, synchronous development is shown in 10 prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-resource abundance combination, whereas it is shown in seven prefecture-level cities for the tourism revenue-tourism location combination. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are synchronous-double high zones for both combinations, while Foshan, Qingyuan, Yangjiang, Zhongshan and Jieyang are deviating-negative mismatch zones for both combinations. Furthermore, the vast majority of prefecture-level cities within the province currently present mismatching trends in tourism development. Based on the analysis results, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward taking into account the actual situation and opportunities for further tourism development in various prefecture-level cities.     

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than...     

Possible Sources of Forecast Errors Generated by the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Part Ⅱ: Model Uncertainty

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II. Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60°S and 60°N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.     

BCC S2S模式对亚洲夏季风准双周振荡预报评估

利用1994-2013年ERA-Interim及NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,对国家气候中心（BCC）次季节到季节尺度模式（S2S）1994-2013年的回报试验数据进行亚洲季风区准双周振荡（QBWO）预报能力评估,并诊断模式预报误差来源。结果表明:BCC S2S模式对QBWO的预报能力随着预报提前时间的增长而降低,9 d后预报技巧明显减弱,其周期、传播特征和强度出现误差;在提前9 d预报中,印度洋地区QBWO对流-环流系统结构松散,信号偏弱,对流向东传播,这与印度洋平均态的预报误差有关,夏季对流平均态低层水汽场在西太平洋和阿拉伯海较强,而东印度洋、孟加拉湾一带偏弱;西北太平洋地区QBWO具有向西北传播的特征,但强度偏弱,可能原因是预报低估了QBWO对流西北侧低层涡度的超前信号,经涡度方程诊断发现,地转涡度平流正贡献微弱,相对涡度平流在对流西北侧引发负涡度,从而减弱了对流西北侧由低层正涡度引发的有利条件。     

基于MICAPS4的智能网格预报平台设计与实现

随着我国智能网格预报业务的开展,海量高分辨率客观数据需要便捷的分析显示及产品制作平台高效处理。该文基于MICAPS4（Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Processing System Version 4.0,人机交互气象信息处理和天气预报制作系统）设计并实现智能网格预报平台,采用MVVM（模型-视图-视图模型,model-view-viewmodel）设计模式,实现业务逻辑与视图的分离,通过对各子功能模块的划分,降低模块之间的耦合度,具有良好的可扩展性。平台实现了高分辨率网格预报数据的显示分析和产品输出,开发了基于等值线、网格、关键点等智能化预报制作工具,集成了降水时间拆分、温度极值订正等客观预报方法,开发了降水、温度、相对湿度等要素一致性处理方法,可有效帮助预报员提高工作效率,同时能够确保产品之间的一致性。平台继承MICAPS4的微内核组件服务、高性能渲染引擎和开放式插件扩展管理等优良特性,实现面向智能网格预报的业务编排、智能编辑和算法集成。目前,该平台已经实现业务应用,为全国智能网格预报业务提供重要支撑。     

寒潮过程中风浪对黄海海气热量通量和动量通量影响研究

采用2009—2013年CFSR(Climate Forecast System Reanalysis)大气和海洋再分析资料对黄海海气间热量通量和动量通量的特征进行统计分析,并通过FVCOMSWAVE浪流耦合模式对典型寒潮过程中风浪的影响效果进行模拟研究与对比分析。统计结果显示,通量受海表大风、海气温差及海洋环流等因子影响,秋冬季节强烈,春夏季节相对较弱,在寒潮活跃的冷季该海域的海流处于弱流期,风浪对海面通量的作用明显增强。海温特征也显示冷季的不稳定性显著强于暖季,因此该海域冷季具有更强的海气热量通量。沿岸站点的比较显示,南部吕泗站面向更开阔的东海海域,其平均波高高出北部20%左右。这与沿海南部通量强于北部特征对应。数值模拟显示,在寒潮过程中,海气界面热量通量和动量通量输送比多年月平均状态显著增强,动量通量增大1~5倍,热量通量增大1~6倍。寒潮过程入海冷锋走向、强度、移动方向显著影响海面热量通量和动量通量大值区的分布。偏北路寒潮纬向型冷锋入海,其强度东部大于西部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海东北部,而偏西路寒潮经向型冷锋入海,其强度南部大于北部,造成通量大值区形成在黄海南部。同时偏北路径寒潮强度大于偏西路径,海气动量通量响应较偏西路径强约25%,热量通量强约50%。耦合风浪作用的模拟显示,海气间热量通量和动量通量明显增大,对不同强度风浪,浪高增加1.5倍,动量通量最大值增大约2倍,热量通量增大10~160 W/m2;浪高减弱至0.5倍,动量通量最大值则减弱约40%,热量通量减小10~55 W/m2。冷锋及其驱动的风浪强烈影响区域海气通量时空特征。