The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007

A model study is conducted to examine the role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007. The model generally agrees with the observations in showing considerable seasonal and interannual variability of the Pacific water inflow at Bering Strait in response to changes in atmospheric circulation. During summer 2007 anomalously strong southerly winds over the PaCific sector of the Arctic Ocean strengthen the ocean circulation and bring more Pacific water into the Arctic than the recent （2000-2006） average. The simulated summer （3 months ） 2007 mean Pacific water inflow at Bering Strait is 1.2 Sv, which is the highest in the past three decades of the simulation and is 20% higher than the recent average. Particularly, the Pacific water inflow in September 2007 is about 0.5 Sv or 50% above the 2000-2006 average. The strengthened warm Pacific water inflow carries an additional 1.0 x 1020 Joules of heat into the Arctic, enough to melt an additional 0.5 m of ice over the whole Chukchi Sea. In the model the extra summer oceanic heat brought in by the Pacific water mainly stays in the Chukchi and Beaufort region, contributing to the warming of surface waters in that region. The heat is in constant contact with the ice cover in the region in July through September. Thus the Pacific water plays a role in ice melting in the Chukchi and Beaufort region all summer long in 2007, likely contributing to up to O. 5 m per month additional ice melting in some area of that region.     

南海北部深水区中新世生物礁发育特征

基于近些年南海北部深水区采集的地震资料,对南海北部深水区中新世生物礁发育特点进行分析、对比和研究,认为西沙隆起地区发育典型的生物礁,具有丘状反射、强振幅、中频、中连和杂乱地震相,发现琼东南盆地北礁地区在中新世梅山组也有似礁相发育.通过对琼东南盆地深水区中新世生物礁层序地层学分析,认为生物礁在中新世梅山组海侵体系域和高位体系域发育.从对北礁地区典型生物礁剖面进行的波阻抗反演来看,其与LH11-1生物礁油田的波阻非常相似,波阻抗值为8×106-9×106kg/(m2·s).古地理分析认为,中新世西沙隆起区与北礁地区处于滨、浅海沉积环境,梅山组时期的陆缘碎屑供给量比较少,适于生物礁发育.     

广西钦州湾围垦工程对茅尾海潮汐动力参数的影响

北部湾茅尾海是中国南方重要的经济开发区,兴建有滨海新城和多个港口码头,近年来围垦开发严重。本研究通过建立二维水动力数值模型系统,分析重要潮汐动力参数,对比研究1985年与2020年间钦州湾围垦和港口建设对当地水动力环境的影响。结果表明：经过围填海和港口工程之后,茅尾海的潮差变化较小,略微增加了0.05 m左右;全日分潮K1、O1及半日分潮M2、S2是影响钦州湾潮汐动力较大的驱动力,围垦后在茅尾海内海地区都略微增加了0.02~0.03 m,其中K1、O1是影响茅尾海的关键潮汐动力参数,敏感性测试分析表明三墩公路建设、钦州港海岸围垦和核电厂导堤建设对茅尾海潮差增加贡献率大致占60%、20%和10%;同时,围垦对束窄钦州湾航道具有一定的优化效应,围垦后钦州湾外湾三条水道峰值通量都明显增加,形成航道束水攻沙效果,对通航和维护主航道稳定性具有一定优势。因此,仅从潮汐动力参数变化角度分析,目前的围垦和港口工程迎合了当地河势特征,对潮汐动力场扰动较小,具有优化局部水动力场环境和提升通航安全性作用。     

临沂市土地可持续利用评价研究

从资源合理性、经济可行性、社会可接受性3个方面，建立了土地可持续利用综合评价指标体系。采用层次分析法确定了指标权重，应用模糊数学中的隶属函数对指标体系中的各项指标进行无量纲化处理，然后用加权法求得临沂市1995--2004年的土地可持续利用水平，用协调度模型求得临沂市土地可持续利用的协调度，运用障碍度模型，分析了各项指标的障碍度。     

井间声波层析成像技术在油田开发中的应用

这里叙述了在大港油田进行的羊11~12井和羊11~13井及港9~72~1井和港8~71~1井井间声波层析试生产的成果,层析图上含油砂体在二口井边棱的深度与以往地质和测井解释的油层深度相吻合,层析解释深度和测井解释的油层深度最大差异为0.8 m~1.6 m,并圈定了含油砂体的分布形态。表明了井间声波层析成像技术对查明油层横向分布,确定油层尖灭位置和圈定含油砂体的分布形态是有效的,同时也显示出井间声波层析成像作为一种油田开发、监测技术更具有潜力和应用前景。     

A TEST OF THREE FITTING CRITERIA FOR MULTIRESPONSE NON-LINEAR MODELING

This work evaluates objective functions for multiresponse non-linear modeling using computersimulations.Tests are performed under a variety of signal-to-noise ratios and noise variance-covariancestructures.The standard error of prediction for the model parameters,computed from 50 trials,is usedfor performance comparisons.The full rank and rank-deficient problems are considered.For the fullrank problem one model was investigated,a first-order two-step consecutive reaction model,and twoobjective functions were considered,the total sum of squares and the determinant criterion.Nodistinction could be made between the two objective functions for this model.For the rank-deficient case two models were investigated,a first-order two-step consecutive reactionas in the full rank case,and a pH titration model described by the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation.Three objective functions were investigated for the rank-deficient case,the total sum of squares,aweighted total sum of squares and the determinant criterion.The total sum of squares was found toperform poorly under all conditions tested compared to the weighted total sum of squares and thedeterminant criterion.The determinant criterion was found to perform much better than the other twocriteria when the data have a combination of a low signal-to-noise ratio and high variance-covariancenoise structure.     

来流速度型对立方体顶部湍流回流区影响的数值分析

为了研究不同上游来流速度型变化对立方体顶部表面是否会在前角附近产生分离、分离程度和附着情况,在对有关的实验数据进行分析比较的基础上,使用标准k-ε模型,说明立方体顶部在什么情况下会出现回流和附着,并提出附着长度Z_R和上游来流速度型u=y^1/m直接相关。同时计算结果表明：Z_R随着m的减小而增大;当m大于7时,在立方体块上部产生较严重的分离而不会有附着,这时出现Z_R>1.0。     

中国,俄罗斯,朝鲜运输合作的条件与前景分析

中,俄,朝之间的图们江地区下面临合作开发,而运输合作是当前最现实的工作。俄朝港口开发潜力大,目前运力严重剩余,迫切要求中国物流的增长。本文通过对港口条件和物流走向的分析,指出运输合作中存在的障碍以及史服障碍的前景。     

关于创建华南金融合作区的思考

金融赶超经济发展战略对欠发达国家和地区很重要的现实意义。这一战略要求把金融当作一项系统工程来建设。金融合作则是启动金融工程,实施金融赶超经济发展战略的基础工作。因此,创建包括香港和澳冰两个特别行政区,广东、广西,海南三省区的华南金融合作区对促进本地区经济与金融合作区的总体思路：（１）建立一个以香港－深圳－广州为轴心的金融合作走廊;（２）建立香港与广东、广西、海南之间和广东、广西、相互之间圈层式的次