Two-dimensional equilibrium morphological modelling of a tidal inlet: an entropy based approach

The management of tidal inlets requires the accurate prediction of equilibrium morphologies. In areas where the flow from rivers is highly regulated, it is important to give decision makers the ability to determine optimal flow management schemes, in order to allow tidal inlets to function as naturally as possible, and minimise the risk of inlet closure. The River Murray Mouth in South Australia is one such problem area. Drought and the retention of water for irrigation and urban water consumption have limited the amount of water entering the estuary. As a result, sediment from the coastal environment is being deposited in the mouth of the estuary, reducing the effect of further coastal interactions. Currently, situations such as this are modelled using traditional process-based methods, where wave, current, sediment transport and sediment balance modules are linked together in a time-stepping process. The modules are reapplied and assessed until a stable morphology is formed. In this paper, new options for modelling equilibrium morphologies of tidal inlets are detailed, which alleviate some of the shortfalls of traditional process-based models, such as the amplification of small errors and reliance on initial conditions. The modelling problem is approached in this paper from a different angle and involves the use of entropy based objective functions, which are optimised in order to find equilibrium morphologies. In this way, characteristics of a system at equilibrium can be recognised and a stable system predicted without having to step through time. This paper also details the use of self-organisation based modelling methods, another non-traditional model application, where local laws and feedback result in the formation of a global stable equilibrium morphology. These methods represent a different approach to traditional models, without some of the characteristics that may add to their limitations. Responsible Editor: Alejandro Souza     

Comparison of Techniques for Visualising Fire Behaviour

During every Australian summer fires are common in the south‐eastern region of the continent. The combined forces of climate, topography and vegetation make Victoria in particular, one of the most fire prone regions on earth ( DSE 2003 ). Throughout its history, Victoria has seen a number of devastating bushfires, including Black Friday 1939, Ash Wednesday 1983, and more recently in the northeast of the State in 2003. The loss of life combined with the damage caused to land and property results in a heavy cost to the community. In Victoria, two of the organizations involved in fire management are the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE) and the Country Fire Authority (CFA). Both use fire ‘meters’ to determine potential fire behaviour given certain conditions. Values for temperature, wind speed, fuel load and vegetation type are input and a numerical estimate of fire danger given. There are a number of different meters used for different locations and environmental types. The most common meter used in Victoria is the McArthur Meter ( CSIR0 2001b ). The output data from this meter is numerical, and provides no spatial representation of fire danger. This paper looks at a variety of techniques used to visualise the numerical output from the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Meter. The article outlines the different models used by fire managers to simulate a fire situation, to assess future scenarios and for decision making involving fire management. Particular emphasis is placed on the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Meter as this is commonly used by fire departments in Australia. The article then focuses on geographical visualisation and a number of techniques employed to convey spatial information are discussed. The article then goes on to describe the fire simulation prototypes created for a study, a visualisation proof‐of‐concept product for organizations involved in managing bushfires in Australia. Finally, results from the evaluation of the prototype are presented.     

Is the instrumental drift of superconducting gravimeters a linear or exponential function of time?

The instrumental drift of the superconducting gravimeter in Membach, Belgium, is estimated using 9 years of co-located and episodic absolute gravity measurements. We show that the best model of the long-term drift of the SG-C021 is an exponential. The thermal levelers used to compensate tilts are unlikely to induce the observed drift. Rather, the capacitance bridge, magnetic variations, gas adsorption on the levitating sphere, or helium gas pressure variations around it are most likely the possible combined causes of the observed instrumental drift. In practice, either linear or exponential drift models are equivalent as long as the record duration does not exceed 10 years. For longer records, this study demonstrates that an exponential models the drift better than a simple linear trend.     

The use of short‐lived radionuclides to quantify transitional bed material transport in a regulated river

We investigate the use of the short‐lived fallout radionuclide beryllium‐7 (⁷Be; t_1/2 = 53·4 days) as a tracer of medium and coarse sand (0·25–2 mm), which transitions between transport in suspension and as bed load, and evaluate the effects of impoundment on seasonal and spatial variations in bed sedimentation. We measure ⁷Be activities in approximately monthly samples from point bar and streambed sediments in one unregulated and one regulated stream. In the regulated stream our sampling spanned an array of flow and management conditions during the annual transition from flood control in the winter and early spring to run‐of‐the‐river operation from late spring to autumn. Sediment stored behind the dam during the winter quickly became depleted in ⁷Be activity. This resulted in a pulse of ‘dead’ sediment released when the dam gates were opened in the spring which could be tracked as it moved downstream. Measured average sediment transport velocities (30–80 metres per day (m d^?1)) exceed those typically reported for bulk bed load transport and are remarkably constant across varied flow regimes, possibly due to corresponding changes in bed sand fraction. Results also show that the length scale of the downstream impact of dam management on sediment transport is short (c. 1 km); beyond this distance the sediment trapped by the dam is replaced by new sediment from tributaries and other downstream sources. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

No proof from carbon isotopes in the Francevillian (Gabon) and Onega (Fennoscandian shield) basins of a global oxidation event at 1980–2090 Ma following the Great Oxidation Event (GOE)

Highly depleted C isotope composition of organic matters from the Onega (Fennoscandian shield) and Francevillian (Gabon) basins are differently interpreted. Kump et al. (2011) suggested the occurrence of a massive and global oxidation event during the period of 1980–2090 Ma, which follows the Great Oxidation Event (2450–2320 Ma) (Bekker et al., 2004). Inversely, Gauthier-Lafaye and Weber (2003) invoke the possible action of methanotrophic microorganisms to explain the δ¹³C values as low as –46‰ measured in the Franceville basin. Here we present the isotope data available in the Franceville basin in order to discuss these two interpretations. The lack of any δ¹³C correlation between organic matter and carbonate in the Franceville basin does not allow the consideration of a massive and global oxidation event.     

Late-stage impacts and the orbital and thermal evolution of Tethys

An inferred ancient episode of heating and deformation on Tethys has been attributed to its passage through a 3:2 resonance with Dione (Chen, E.M.A., Nimmo, F. [2008]. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, 19203). The satellites encounter, and are trapped into, the e-Dione resonance before reaching the e-Tethys resonance, limiting the degree to which Tethys is tidally heated. However, for an initial Dione eccentricity >0.016, Tethys’ eccentricity becomes large enough to generate the inferred heat flow via tidal dissipation. While capture into the e-Dione resonance is easy, breaking the resonance (to allow Tethys to evolve to its current state) is very difficult. The resonance is stable even for large initial Dione eccentricities, and is not broken by perturbations from nearby resonances (e.g. the Rhea–Dione 5:3 resonance). Our preferred explanation is that the Tethyan impactor which formed the younger Odysseus impact basin also broke the 3:2 resonance. Simultaneously satisfying the observed basin size and the requirement to break the resonance requires a large (≈250 km diameter) and slow (≈0.5 km/s) impactor, possibly a saturnian satellite in a nearby crossing orbit with Tethys. Late-stage final impacts of this kind are a common feature of satellite formation models (Canup, R.M., Ward, W.R. [2006]. Nature 441, 834–839).     

The Late Quaternary sediment successions of Llangorse Lake,south Wales

The last British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) created a landscape with many sedimentary basins that preserve archives of paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic change during the Last Glacial-Interglacial Transition (LGIT; ~ 18-8 ka BP). The typical lithostratigraphic succession of these archives is composed of minerogenic/allogenic sediments formed during cold climatic conditions and organic-rich/authigenic sediments during warmer climates. This paper presents a multi-core lithostratigraphy compiled from the extant lake and surrounding basin at Llangorse Lake, south Wales, a basin lying within the southernmost limits of the last BIIS. This lake contains one of the longest continuous terrestrial sediment successions in the UK. Uncertainty previously existed concerning the presence and distribution of sediments at the site related to the Windermere Interstadial (~ 14.7 to ~ 12.9 ka BP) and Loch Lomond Stadial (~ 12.9 to 11.7 ka BP). A new borehole survey demonstrates that LGIT-age sediments are present at the site with nekron mud (gyttja), corresponding to the Lateglacial Interstadial, deposited in the deeper part of the lake waters and that these deposits are equivalent in age to marl deposits found at shallower depths at the margins of the basin. These deposits are associated with warmer conditions experienced during the Windermere Interstadial and Holocene, whilst minerogenic-rich sediments were deposited during the colder climatic conditions of the Dimlington Stadial and the Loch Lomond Stadial with rangefinder radiocarbon dates confirming this attribution. A model of lake level changes shows that drainage of the Dimlington Stadial glacial lake caused the largest fall, but there was also a further, smaller lake level fall at the end of the Windermere Interstadial and/or the start of the Loch Lomond Stadial, before the level rose in the early Holocene. The lithostratigraphic results presented here form the framework for further paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic research at Llangorse Lake.     

Numerically enhanced conceptual modelling (NECoM) applied to the Malta Mean Sea Level Aquifer

Conventional hydrogeological practice is to formulate a conceptual model, which is often the basis of a numerical model. The numerical model is then used to test groundwater management strategies. A workflow is proposed, employing the numerically enhanced conceptual model (NECoM) of the Mean Sea Level Aquifer (MSLA) on the island of Malta. The Malta MSLA is overexploited and under threat of salinization. Data (heads, chloride concentrations, electrical conductivity logs, tidal tests and qualitative analyses) were assimilated into a fast-running numerical model. Simultaneously, strategies for optimal acquisition of further data were examined through the modelling process. The model was delivered through the Energy and Water Agency, with suggestions for flexible model deployment. These workflows will, hopefully, spawn model improvements through further revision of the base concepts. The model allows the agency to make predictions, which have uncertainties that are quantified and reduced through data assimilation as new data become available. Contemplated management plans can therefore be properly assessed before implementation. The proposed NECoM approach can be generalized since it bases model usage on the premise that modelling should make maximum use of existing data by assimilating its information content, thereby highlighting the uncertainties of decision-critical predictions that remain because of data insufficiency. Thus, the presently disjointed process of modelling on the one hand, and data acquisition on the other, can be better aligned. Conceptual and numerical model development become parallel, rather than sequential, activities. Together, they enable predictions of future system behaviour for which bias is reduced and uncertainties quantified.

     

Critical shallow and deep hydrologic conditions associated with widespread landslides during a series of storms between February and April 2018 in Pittsburgh and vicinity,western Pennsylvania,USA

The potential for widespread landslides is generally increased when extraordinary wet periods occur during times of elevated subsurface hydrologic conditions. A series of storms in early 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, overlapped with a period of increased shallow soil moisture and rising bedrock groundwater levels resulting from seasonally diminished evapotranspiration and induced widespread landslides in the region. Most of the landslides were shallow slope failures in colluvium, landslide deposits, and/or fill. However, deep-seated landslide activity also occurred and corresponded with record cumulative precipitation from late February to April and bedrock groundwater levels rising to an annual high. Landslides blocked or damaged roads, adversely affected multiple houses, disrupted electrical service, crushed vehicles, and resulted in considerable economic losses. The initial landslides occurred during or immediately after a rare period of three successive days of heavy rain that began on February 14. Subsequent landslides between late February and April were induced by multiday storms with smaller rainfall totals. As shallow soil moisture at a monitoring site rose above a volumetric water content of 32%, the mean rainfall intensities necessary to induce slope failure in colluvium and other surficial deposits decreased. Deep-seated landslide movement occurred in the region mostly when the groundwater level in a bedrock observation well was shallower than 1.7 m. The availability of hydrologic and landslide movement monitoring data during this extraordinary series of storms highlighted the evolution of the landslide hazard with changing moisture conditions and yielded insights into potential hydrologic criteria for anticipating future widespread landslides in the region.

     

Geological and hydrogeological reconstruction of the main aquifers of the Maltese islands

Hydrogeology Journal - Geological and hydrogeological conceptualizations of the five main aquifers of Malta were performed by means of characterization of the groundwater bodies’ geometries...