Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security

Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km × 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO₂ fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 ^{^}C; when the CO₂ fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^{^}C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO₂ fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO₂ fertilization was considered.     

Comparison of Three Tropical Cyclone Intensity Datasets

Analyzed in this paper are the 16-yr (1988-2003) tropical cyclone (TC) intensity data from three major forecast centers of the western North Pacific, i.e., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the United States. Results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) in the intensity of TCs among the three centers, with a maximum difference for the same TC over 30 m s-1. The flight reconnaissance over TC can minish the discrepancy to some extent. A climatic and persistent prediction model is set up to study the impact of initial data from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is obtained that the root mean square error (RMSE) of a 4-yr independent test is the largest using data from JTWC, while the smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute deviation in 24-h intensity prediction is 2.5 m s-1 between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, and 4.0 m s-1 between CMA and JTWC data, with a maximum deviation reaching 21 m s-1. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the western North Pacific.     

图文综合办公系统的设计

本文通过分析图文综合办公自动化的需求和发展状况,结合规划管理的应用实践,总结了GIS与OA相结合技术在图文综合办公自动化领域应用的方法、模式,阐述了图文综合办公自动化系统的设计思想和技术集成方法,并举例说明系统的实际应用效果。     

无线GIS空间数据动态副本管理研究

针对GIS海量空间数据更新要求，研究了无线网络环境下空间数据传输和存储的副本动态复制与管理技术。通过分析空间数据移动复制服务策略，设计了基于无线网络的动态副本管理系统（DRMS）来实现空间数据的移动动态复制，并研究副本管理模型和副本更新算法，保证了无线网络传输的稳定性。     

GPS信号载噪比研究

介绍了GPS接收机所接收信号的栽噪比；提出了载噪比方向图的概念，导出了栽噪比方向图与天线增益方向图的关系；初步评估了大气损耗的时空差异；指出可利用栽噪比异常方向图确定被动式干扰源的方位。     

AR模型谱在超导重力数据信号检测中的分析研究

在介绍AR（auto-regression）模型谱分析原理的基础上,分别采用AR模型谱和周期图法对法国Strasbourg、澳大利亚Mt Stromlo和日本Matsushiro三个站的超导重力数据进行信号检测,以半日波的理论值为依据,运用两种方法进行半日波信号检测、分析与比较。结果表明,在超导重力数据信号检测分析中,AR模型谱比周期图法更准确、稳定,且受数据量的影响较小。     

空间数据模糊聚类的有效性评价

基于模糊划分中存在的分类不确定性因素和空间数据的空间位置特征,提出了一种新的空间数据模糊聚类有效性函数。实验结果表明,这种新的有效性函数能够对模糊聚类结果的有效性进行正确的评价,特别是对于空间数据模糊聚类有效性评价,其分类效果较理想,同其他有效性指标相比,能得到较优的分类数。     

基于多分辨率分析的灰度调制影像融合方法研究

在遥感图像处理中,由于应用的需要,已经有很多算法可以用来融合高分辨率的全色影像和低分辨率的多光谱影像。本文阐述了小波变换的Mallat算法和a′Trous（多孔）算法,在此基础上,作者提出了一种基于多分辨率分析的灰度调制影像融合方法（MRAGM算法）,以SPOT全色影像与TM多光谱影像融合为例,详细给出了算法和解算步骤,最后分别用三种方法对SPOT高分辨率全色影像和TM低分辨率多光谱影像进行了融合,并且对融合后的影像从定性和定量方面都进行了评价,可以得出MRAGM方法比Mallat算法和a′Trous（多孔）算法的融合效果要好。     

高地应力硬脆性围岩开挖损伤区时效性扩展案例分析——特征与机制

硬脆性围岩在开挖完成后，其强度在高应力的影响下具有明显的时间效应，这导致围岩开挖损伤区的发展也呈现出与时间相关的特征。在岩石强度时效性演化模型的基础上，以锦屏二级水电站试验洞钻孔摄像、声波、变形监测等开挖损伤区实测结果为目标函数，采用正交设计方法、最小二乘支持向量机模型、粒子群优化算法等方法，建立了考虑时间效应的LSSVM-PSO智能反演分析方法，并以锦屏二级水电站试验洞为例，研究了开挖完成后的25 d里，围岩强度在高地应力条件下的时效性演化特征，进而获得这一时段内开挖损伤区扩展过程。研究结果表明：（1）高应力地区，隧洞开挖后，围岩损伤区的主要扩展方向受地应力控制，且最大扩展方向为最小主应力方向，且破坏区（破坏接近度FAI≥2）也集中于该方向； （2）开挖损伤区面积随时间近似呈S形曲线变化，表明开挖损伤区初始发展较为缓慢，随着时间推移呈现线性增加的趋势，最后又逐渐趋于稳定；（3）开挖后第3～10 d为开挖损伤区快速增长阶段。该研究成果对高应力地区硬脆性围岩开挖损伤区时效性演化研究具有指导意义。