随机Petri网在地震应急协同能力定量评价与动态分析中的应用

地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。     

基于实地调研的中国西南地区不同震级人员死亡数量研究

地震是造成人员死亡最严重的自然灾害之一,震后对人员死亡等灾情的快速评估是地震应急响应和救援的关键。总结经验发现,在地震前进行预评估工作是提高震后灾情快速评估精度和时效性的有效手段。通过对62次发生在我国西南地区的历史震例分析后发现,当地震震级小于4.5级时,基本不会造成人员死亡情况。本研究利用我国云南和四川部分区县的实地调研数据,发现地震人员死亡数与震级存在指数函数关系,由此构建了针对各个区县的地震人员死亡人数指数函数估算模型,并计算了回归系数。基于该模型,获得了5.0～8.0级地震人员死亡数查找表(以0.5级为间隔),用于辅助震后快速评估工作。     

震情值守信息服务平台设计与实现

快速发展的互联网技术为进一步提升震情服务水平和能力,拓宽地震信息发布手段和渠道,扩展服务覆盖范围,智能化、规范化震情值班工作提供了新的方法。基于B/S架构,采用高内聚低耦合的3层框架结构,结合API混合加密和数据源监控技术,设计开发震情值守信息服务平台。在保障数据安全和系统稳定的基础上,实现了地震信息的多渠道发布和接收,增加了地震信息服务产品种类,使震情值班工作更加智能、规范,有效提高了地震行业的信息化水平。     

Integrating hydrochemical and microbial methods to identify hydraulic connections between three saltworks in southern Laizhou Bay,China

Exploring hydraulic connections between brine mining wells is of great significance to the development of geological resources; however, there are still challenges to accurately identifying these connections. In this study, a combination of hydrochemical and biological analyses was used to investigate the hydraulic connections between three saltworks (Yangkou, Hanting, and Changyi) in southern Laizhou Bay, China. The results showed that the groundwater recharge sources at Yangkou saltworks, and therefore the associated salts and hydrochemical composition of the brine, were different from those of the other two saltworks. The diversity and composition of the microbial community among the three saltworks were identified based on a high-throughput DNA sequencing method. The brines of Hanting and Changyi saltworks had greater similarity in terms of microbial diversity and composition, which was consistent with the hydrochemical results. Based on microbial analysis combined with hydrochemistry, the depths of the mining wells at Hanting saltworks were identified, along with the hydraulic connection with Changyi saltworks. As a tool to judge the hydraulic connections of geological reservoirs, microbial analysis combined with hydrochemistry may be applicable to a wider range of subsurface resources, such as oil and gas, which will provide new ideas for the rational development of underground resources.

     

兰州第四纪黄土/古土壤序列物源演变: 来自于碳酸盐矿物的证据*

黄土/古土壤的物源研究对于揭示第四纪气候变化和青藏高原隆升历史具有重要意义。本研究以位于黄土高原西部1.4 Ma以来的兰州黄土/古土壤沉积序列为研究对象,基于X射线衍射技术分析了黄土/古土壤中的主要矿物组成,侧重于碳酸盐矿物含量,追溯了兰州黄土/古土壤的直接物源。结果显示: (1)1.4 Ma以来兰州地区黄土/古土壤沉积物的主要直接源区为柴达木盆地沙漠区和阿拉善干旱区。(2)基于二元混合模型计算的潜在原始源区对兰州黄土白云石和总碳酸盐矿物的相对贡献率以及长石与石英比值结果一致支持1.4 Ma以来兰州黄土原始物源发生了多次变化。1.4~1.1 Ma和0.9~0.3 Ma青藏高原东北缘造山带(昆仑山、祁连山)和中亚造山带对兰州黄土的贡献相当,而1.1~0.9 Ma和0.3 Ma以来,中亚造山带对兰州黄土的物源贡献增加,这可能分别是对中更新世气候转型和0.3 Ma以来青藏高原及邻近地区干冷气候增强的响应。1.15 Ma和0.8 Ma兰州黄土/古土壤中高的白云石含量、碳酸盐矿物总含量以及0.8 Ma长石与石英比值的快速升高可能是对“昆黄运动”的响应,进而造成了昆仑山、祁连山对黄土高原物源贡献的增加。     

Process and Mechanisms of Deep Fluid Effects on Hydrocarbon Generation and Pore Space in Shale: A Case Study from the Mesoproterozoic Xiamaling Formation in the Zhaojiashan Section

Heat carried by deep fluid might greatly affect hydrocarbon generation and pore space in shale. Dyke intrusion carrying high levels of heat may be a means by which to explore the influence of deep fluid on shale reservoirs. This study evaluates hydrocarbon generation and analyzed the evolution of shale storage space in the third member of the Xiamaling Formation in the Zhaojiashan section, Hebei Province, based on experimental data such as TOC, SEM, VRo, low-temperature N2 adsorption and high-pressure mercury injection. The results show that the dyke intrusion reduced the shale TOC content drastically―by up to 77%―and also induced instantaneous hydrocarbon generation over a range about 1.4 times the thickness of the intrusion. Furthermore, the dyke intrusion might transform organic pores in surrounding shales into inorganic pores. There were two shale porosity peaks: one appeared when VRo = 2.0%, caused by the increase of organic pores as thermal maturity increased, the other occurred when the VRo value was between 3% and 4%, caused by the increase of inorganic mineral pores. It can be concluded that dyke intrusion can be an effective tool with which to study how deep fluid affects instantaneous hydrocarbon generation and pore space in shale.     

Petrogenesis and Tectonic Implications of A-type Granites in Zhaheba in the East Junggar Region of Xinjiang, China: Evidence from Geochronology, Geochemistry and Sr-Nd Isotopic Compositions

The magma source, petrogenesis, tectonic setting and geochronology of the late Paleozoic A-type granites widely exposed in the Zhaheba area, East Junggar, have thus far not been well-constrained. A better understanding of these issues will help to reveal the magmatic processes and continental growth of Central Asia. The A-type granites in Zhaheba include the Ashutasi alkaline granites and the Yuyitasi syenogranites, which were emplaced at 321.5 ± 4.8 Ma and 321.7 ± 0.6 Ma, respectively. The major rock-forming minerals are orthoclase, perthite, arfvedsonite and quartz, which exhibit the following principal geochemical characteristics of A2-type granites. (1) Their REE distribution curves each exhibit a ‘V’-shaped pattern and a marked depletion in Eu. They are rich in large-ion lithophile elements Rb, Th and U as well as high-field-strength elements Nb, Ta, Zr and Hf, but significantly depleted in Ba, Sr, P and Ti. (2) Their (87Sr/86Sr)i values (0.7021–0.7041), εNd(t) values (4.57–5.16) and REE distribution patterns are in basic agreement with those of the Kalamaili A-type granite belt in East Junggar. The TDM2 values of the alkaline granites and syenogranites range from 661 to 709 Ma. The A-type granites may be the products of upwelling asthenosphere-triggered partial melting of immature lower crust. The alkaline granites were late-stage products of crystallization and differentiation. Compared to the syenogranites, the alkaline granites are significantly lower in K2O, Na2O, Al2O3, FeO, MgO and CaO, but significantly higher in incompatible elements (e.g., SiO2, Rb, and Sr). The magmatic crystallization temperatures of the syenogranites and alkaline granites are 874°C and 819°C, respectively. As their age gradually decreases (peak ages: 322 Ma and 307 Ma, respectively), there is a gradual decrease in the TDM2 of the A-type granites and a gradual increase in the εNd(t) value from the Ulungur belt to the Kalamaili belt in East Junggar. The study of A-type granites is therefore one of the keys to understanding the laws and mechanisms of crustal accretion during the Phanerozoic period, as well as also being of great significance for understanding the Paleozoic accretion.     

Crustal Electrical Structure and Deep Metallogenic Potential in Northern Wuyi Area (South China), based on Magnetotelluric Data

The northern Wuyi area, which is located in the northern Wuyi metallogenic belt, has superior mineralization conditions. The Pingxiang–Guangfeng–Jiangshan–Shaoxing fault (PSF) extends across the whole region regardless of whether or how the PSF relates to the near-surface mineralization. We carried out an MT survey in the region and obtained a reliable 2D model of the crustal electrical structure to a depth of 30 km. In the resistivity model, we inferred that a continuous high conductivity belt that ranges from the shallow to deep crust is a part of the PSF. Then, we estimated the fluid content and pressure gradient to identify the deep sources of fluid as well as its pattern of motion pattern. Finally, we proposed a model for the deep metallogenic migration processes that combines geological data, fluid content data, pressure gradient data, and the subsurface resistivity model. The model analysis showed that the Jiangnan orogenic belt and the Cathaysia block formed the PSF during the process of com. The deep fluid migrated upward through the PSF to the shallow crust. Therefore, we believe that the PSF is an ore-forming fluid migration channel and that it laid the material basis for large-scale mineralization in the shallow crust.     

基于开源GIS的地震灾情速报信息收集与处置研究

针对河南省灾情获取效率低的现实问题,设计基于QGIS的微信小程序,实现灾情速报员属性数据空间化,并自动分配拨打电话任务,灾情调查人员及时将通过拨打电话获取的灾情信息快速上报,实时动态展布,并快速统计灾情速报信息,生成地震有感范围图和地震灾情信息汇总报告,为地震抗震救灾指挥部决策提供支持,满足河南及邻区小震、弱震较多地区地震应急、应急演练工作需求,也为其他应急系统建设提供参考。