Recent floods in Bangladesh: Possible causes and solutions

In recent years the frequency of abnormal floods in Bangladesh has increased substantially, causing serious damage to lives and property. The most crucial questions that need to be addressed are: what really causes the havoc-creating floods and is there any solution to the problem? The heavy monsoon downpour and synchronization of flood-peaks of the major rivers are generally considered to be the main causes of the floods. Some underlying factors also deserve serious consideration as possible contributors to the recent floods: change in the base level of the rivers due to local sea level rise and subsidence, inadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in the watershed area due to seismic and neotectonic activities in the region, river bed aggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwise tilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive development and population growth. Without regional cooperation among the co-riparian nations any major interbasin flood control activity is considered to be almost impossible. However, among other proposals in this paper, extensive annual dredging of the rivers, channels and creeks, and reoccupation of the abandoned channels in Bangladesh through re-excavations could still increase the water carrying capacity of the rivers. Land elevations could be increased if the dredged or excavated materials are dispersed on the flood plains, which would in turn reduce the severity of floods.     

Geostatistical modelling of the spatial life history of post-larval deepwater hake Merluccius paradoxus in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Optimal and sustainable management of fish resources cannot be ensured without a thorough understanding of the migration patterns and population (demographic stock) structure. Recent studies suggest that these aspects of the economically and ecologically important deepwater hake Merluccius paradoxus are not reflected in the current assessment and management practices for the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In this study, we compiled data from multiple demersal trawl surveys from the entire distribution area and applied state-of-the-art geostatistical population modelling (GeoPop) to estimate growth rate, mortality, and spatial and temporal distribution patterns of M. paradoxus. The data and the model enabled us to follow temporal and spatial changes in the distribution and infer movements from the recruitment/nursery areas, through the juvenile phase and the adults’ migration to the spawning areas outside/upstream of the nursery areas. The results indicated one primary recruitment/nursery area on the west coast of South Africa and a secondary less-productive recruitment/nursery area on the south coast near Port Elizabeth. Juveniles initially migrated away from the main recruitment area, followed by natal homing by larger individuals. This pattern was highly consistent through the time-series of the study. This perception of a, primarily, panmictic population that performs transboundary migrations between Namibia and South Africa corresponds largely to the hypothesis and data plots given in recent studies. We recommend that fisheries assessment, advice and management take into consideration these aspects of the distribution and population (stock) structure of M. paradoxus.     

Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

DATA ANALYSIS WITH MINIMAL ASSUMPTIONS

The computer has made it possible to scrutinize data rapidly by means of graphics. This should be doneprior to the application of any model to the data, since the model must be validated before using it asa means of analyzing the data. The procedure is illustrated in terms of two examples of real experimentaldata.