Effect of land–ocean contrast on the structure of anomaly tropical circulation

While the important role of land–ocean contrast (LOC) in the mean atmospheric circulation is well-known, an intriguing question remains as to whether LOC can also significantly influence the anomaly circulation. This question is particularly important in the tropics, where a large part of the variabilities is known to be due to convective internal dynamics, which in turn can be significantly affected by LOC. In the present work, we investigate this question using a model of convectively driven anomaly circulation in the tropics. Emphasizing the lower tropospheric flow, we adopt a model describing the horizontal dynamics of the first baroclinic mode on an equatorial β-plane, in the presence of moist feedbacks. We introduce LOC in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. Land surface dryness is taken into account in the moisture budget through the control of evaporative flux. A constant non-latent heating term is used over land in order to represent radiative and sensible heating effects. First, a control run is performed, numerically, without any LOC using random initial perturbations. The gravest mode that emerges from the control run, which is a wave-2 feature with a period around 20 days, is then used as the initial field for the model runs with LOC. The results show that LOC can significantly influence even the tropical variabilities. A latitudinal LOC, with a land mass in the northern hemisphere (north of 10°N), tends to shift the region of maximum precipitation slightly north of the equator with accompanying steeper gradients near the land–ocean boundary. The implications of this result for our understanding of Asian summer monsoon conditions are discussed. When LOC is only in the longitudinal direction, the dominant wave structure that emerges from the model run has wavenumber one and a period of about 35 days, very similar to the observed 30–60 day oscillation. In our final experiment, which is nearer to the realistic land–ocean configuration in the tropics, it is found that both latitudinal and longitudinal effects of LOC are important aspects of the tropical anomaly circulation. It is suggested that some of the patterns in the precipitation distribution, observed in the tropics and simulated using general circulation models are results of convectively induced internal dynamics, modulated by LOC.     

Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - In the seamless forecast paradigm, it is hypothesized that the reduction in initial error in the dynamical model forecast would help to reduce forecast error...     

Species loss in the brown world: are heterotrophic systems inherently stable?

Determining the effects of species loss on ecosystems has received considerable attention given the current threats many ecosystems are facing. A significant body of research has yielded many insights to this question, but this work has been limited by a focus on ecosystems where primary production plays a significant role in energy transfer. As many ecosystems rely on energy sources that are not derived from in situ production, there is a need to better understand how species loss will affect ecosystems of varying trophic states. To examine the effects of species loss on an ecosystem that is not reliant on in situ primary production, we manipulated the larval amphibian community of temporary forest ponds. These ponds are heterotrophic systems that rely on allochthonous inputs of detritus as a basal energy source. The larvae of two amphibian species that are prone to local extinction, wood frogs (Lithobates sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), were removed from ponds and net ecosystem production was monitored. We found no effects of the removal of these top consumers on ecosystem functioning or on lower trophic groups (i.e., zooplankton, algae, bacteria). While amphibians can influence food web dynamics in other systems, their influence on system processes in temporary forest ponds appears to be limited. We hypothesize that the lack of any effects is due to the microbial degradation of detritus ??swamping?? the system, providing more than enough energy to maintain the food web, and/or due to omnivory dampening species interactions. These data indicate that the functioning of heterotrophic systems may be inherently stable due to internal dynamics that minimize interaction strengths among trophic groups.     

Penetration of sunlight into a canopy: Explicit models based on vertical and horizontal leaf projections

The projections of leaf areas onto a horizontal plane and onto a vertical plane are examined for their utility in characterizing canopies for sunlight penetration (direct beam only) models. These projections exactly specify the penetration if the projections on the principal plane of the normals to the top surfaces of the leaves are in the same quadrant as the Sun. Inferring the total leaf area from these projections (and therefore the penetration as a function of the total leaf area) is possible only with a large uncertainty (up to ±32%) because the projections are a specific measure of the total leaf area only if the leaf angle distribution is known. It is expected that this uncertainty could be reduced to more acceptable levels by making an approximate assessment of whether the zenith angle distribution is that of an extremophile canopy. An extremophile canopy would have the maximum leaf area possible for given set of projections. Simple leaf projection measurements would then become a practical substitute for detailed measurements of the leaf angle distribution. This is not true if for a fraction of the canopy, the leaf normal projections fall in the non-solar quadrant. In this case, accurate and detailed information about the leaf orientation is required for assessing the penetration; the horizontal and vertical projections are inadequate for this purpose.     

Sensitivity of multi-gas climate policy to emission metrics

The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used to create CO₂-equivalent emission totals for multi-gas greenhouse targets. While many alternatives have been proposed, it is not possible to uniquely define a metric that captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. The methane index is varied between 4 and 70, with a central value of 21, which is the 100-year GWP value currently used in policy contexts. We find that the sensitivity to index value is, at most, 10–18 % in terms of methane emissions but only 2–3 % in terms of the maximum total radiative forcing change, with larger regional emissions differences in some cases. The choice of index also affects estimates of the cost of meeting a given end of century forcing target, with total two-gas mitigation cost increasing by 7–9 % if the index is increased, and increasing in most scenarios from 4 to 23 % if the index is lowered, with a slight (1 %) decrease in total cost in one case. We find that much of the methane abatement occurs as the induced effect of CO₂ abatement rather than explicit abatement, which is one reason why climate outcomes are relatively insensitive to the index value. We also find that the near-term climate benefit of increasing the methane index is small.     

Thirteen plus one: a comparison of global climate policy architectures

We critically review the Kyoto Protocol and thirteen alternative policy architectures for addressing the threat of global climate change. We employ six criteria to evaluate the policy proposals: environmental outcome, dynamic efficiency, cost-effectiveness, equity, flexibility in the presence of new information, and incentives for participation and compliance. The Kyoto Protocol does not fare well on a number of criteria, but none of the alternative proposals fare well along all six dimensions. We identify several major themes among the alternative proposals: Kyoto is “too little, too fast”; developing countries (DCs) should play a more substantial role and receive incentives to participate; implementation should focus on market-based approaches, especially those with price mechanisms; and participation and compliance incentives are inadequately addressed by most proposals. Our investigation reveals tensions among several of the evaluative criteria, such as between environmental outcome and efficiency, and between cost-effectiveness and incentives for participation and compliance.     

Determination of ammonia emission rates from a tunnel ventilated chicken house using passive samplers and a Gaussian dispersion model

Atmospheric deposition can provide a significant fraction of the nitrogen loading to coastal waters. The Delmarva Peninsula, on the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, is a region with intense poultry production that may supply a significant source of atmospheric ammonia (NH₃). There is a need to quantify ammonia NH₃ from representative growing methods in this region in order to more accurately estimate agricultural NH₃ emissions and to develop best management practices. In this study, NH₃ emissions were determined at an 18,600-bird tunnel-ventilated chicken house using a modified sampling grid (a planar arrangement normal to the length of the house) with Ogawa passive samplers to characterize the emission plume downwind from the house. This improvement in the sampling strategy, compared to a previous study, simplified the inverse Gaussian plume analysis which improved the confidence in the emission factors. In this study, a total of four separate plume characterizations were conducted over the final 3 weeks of the 6-week broiler grow-out cycle. The mean emission factor observed at the tunnel-ventilated house, 0.13 g NH₃–N/bird-day, was an order of magnitude lower than that previously observed at a nearby side-wall ventilated house. Although not all growing variables were measured, the large difference in emission factors between the two ventilation regimes suggest that modern, tunnel-ventilated houses may result in a significant decrease in NH₃ emissions compared with traditional growing methods. This variability in emission factors underscores the need for characterizing chicken houses under various conditions and determining the factors that control these atmospheric emissions.     

Observing and Simulating Wind-Turbine Wakes During the Evening Transition

Wind-turbine-wake evolution during the evening transition introduces variability to wind-farm power production at a time of day typically characterized by high electricity demand. During the evening transition, the atmosphere evolves from an unstable to a stable regime, and vertical stratification of the wind profile develops as the residual planetary boundary layer decouples from the surface layer. The evolution of wind-turbine wakes during the evening transition is examined from two perspectives: wake observations from single turbines, and simulations of multiple turbine wakes using the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Throughout the evening transition, the wake’s wind-speed deficit and turbulence enhancement are confined within the rotor layer when the atmospheric stability changes from unstable to stable. The height variations of maximum upwind-downwind differences of wind speed and turbulence intensity gradually decrease during the evening transition. After verifying the WRF-model-simulated upwind wind speed, wind direction and turbulent kinetic energy profiles with observations, the wind-farm-scale wake evolution during the evening transition is investigated using the WRF-model wind-farm parametrization scheme. As the evening progresses, due to the presence of the wind farm, the modelled hub-height wind-speed deficit monotonically increases, the relative turbulence enhancement at hub height grows by 50%, and the downwind surface sensible heat flux increases, reducing surface cooling. Overall, the intensifying wakes from upwind turbines respond to the evolving atmospheric boundary layer during the evening transition, and undermine the power production of downwind turbines in the evening.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.