Bootstrap based artificial neural network (BANN) analysis for hierarchical prediction of monthly runoff in Upper Damodar Valley Catchment

Estimation of runoff is a prerequisite for many applications involving conservation and management of water resources. This study is undertaken in the Upper Damodar Valley Catchment (UDVC) having a drainage area of 17513.08 km² for prediction of monthly runoff. Thirty one microwatersheds and 15 sub-watersheds were selected from a total of 716 microwatersheds in the catchment area for this study. The feasibility of using different soil attributes (particle size distribution, organic matter content and apparent density), topographic attributes (primary, secondary and compound), geomorphologic attributes (basin, relief and network indices) and vegetation attribute as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), on prediction of monthly runoff were explored in this study. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to minimize the data redundancy of the input variables. Ten significant input variables namely; watershed length (km), elongation ratio, bifurcation ratio, area ratio, coarse sand (%), fine sand (%), elevation (m), slope (°), profile curvature (rad/m) and NDVI were selected. The selected input variables were added in hierarchy with monthly rainfall (mm) as inputs for prediction of monthly runoff (mm) using Bootstrap based artificial neural networks (BANN). The performance of the models was tested using Spearman’s correlation coefficient (r), coefficient of efficiency (COE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Best performance was observed for model with monthly rainfall, slope, coarse sand, bifurcation ratio and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as inputs (r = 0.925 and COE = 0.839). Increase in number of input variables did not necessarily yield better performances of the BANN models. Selection of relevant inputs and their combinations were found to be key elements in determining the performance of BANN models. Annual runoff map was generated for all the microwatersheds utilizing the weights of the best performing BANN model. This study reveals that the specific combinations of soil, topography, geomorphology and vegetation inputs can be utilized for better prediction of monthly runoff.     

Wind tunnel modeling of small-scale meteorological processes

After introductory remarks on similarity laws to be satisfied in wind tunnel experiments simulating small-scale meteorological processes, mean and turbulence characteristics of wind tunnel boundary layers are presented and compared with the characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer. The results are used to evaluate the possibilities and limitations of physical modeling of pollutant dispersion in general. In the second part of the paper, the potential of wind tunnels to solve micro-meteorological problems of real practical interest will be demonstrated. The example involves the investigation of the effects of building downwash on ground-level concentrations for flue gases discharged from natural draft wet cooling towers.     

Apsidal motion in the eclipsing binary system V 451 Ophiuchi

MulticolourWBVR photoelectric observations of the eclipsing binary V 451 Oph were carried out, and a highly accurate light curve was obtained. The angular velocity of the orbital rotation, =2.1 deg yr^–1, and the apsidal motion constantk ₂=0.0045 are given.     

SELFE: A semi-implicit Eulerian–Lagrangian finite-element model for cross-scale ocean circulation

Unstructured-grid models grounded on semi-implicit, finite-volume, Eulerian–Lagrangian algorithms, such as UnTRIM and ELCIRC, have enjoyed considerable success recently in simulating 3D estuarine and coastal circulation. However, opportunities for improving the accuracy of this type of models were identified during extensive simulations of a tightly coupled estuary–plume–shelf system in the Columbia River system. Efforts to improve numerical accuracy resulted in SELFE, a new finite-element model for cross-scale ocean modeling. SELFE retains key benefits, including computational efficiency of existing semi-implicit Eulerian–Lagrangian finite-volume models, but relaxes restrictions on grids, uses higher-order shape functions for elevation, and enables superior flexibility in representing the bathymetry. Better representation of the bathymetry is enabled by a novel, “localized” vertical grid that resembles unstructured grids. At a particular horizontal location, SELFE uses either S coordinates or SZ coordinates, but the equations are consistently solved in Z space. SELFE also performs well relative to volume conservation and spurious oscillations, two problems that plague some finite-element models. This paper introduces SELFE as an open-source code available for community use and enhancement. The main focus here is on describing the formulation of the model and on showing results for a range of progressively demanding benchmark tests. While leaving details to separate publications, we also briefly illustrate the superior performance of SELFE over ELCIRC in a field application to the Columbia River estuary and plume.     

Mediterranean outflow through the Strait of Gibraltar since 18,000 Years B.P.: Mineralogical and geochemical arguments

Data obtained from mineralogical and geochemical analyses of piston and gravity cores, recovered from an area off Lisbon (Portugal) to the Alboran Sea (Mediterranean), serve as a basis for better understanding the past 18,000 years of hydrological exchanges at Gibraltar. Tracers used in this study are smectite, kaolinite, Ta, Th, La. One of the primary sources of particles both into and out of the Mediterranean is the Guadalquivir River. These particles are transported back into the Atlantic in the Mediterranean outflow water, and deposited along the Iberian slope. No evidence for reversal of this outflow current was found in those cores, since 18,000 years B.P.     

Catastrophic landslides,glacier behaviour and moraine formation – A view from an active plate margin

The influence of large bedrock landslides (“rock avalanches”) on the behaviour of glaciers is incompletely recognised. Here we present an example from an active tectonic margin in South Island, New Zealand where large earthquakes leave a significant imprint on glacial records. We demonstrate that terminal moraines on the western side of the Southern Alps record both ‘ordinary’ (i.e. climate-driven) and landslide-initiated glacial advances. Following consideration of the processes involved in rock avalanche-initiated moraine construction we suggest ways of determining the nature of the advance that built the terminal moraine. The implications of these observations are important in breaking the conventional linkage of individual terminal moraines with climate forcing.     

Reconstruction of Holocene Environmental Changes in North-Western Pacific in Relation to Paleorecord from Shikotan Island

Doklady Earth Sciences - Results of a paleolimnological investigation of a well-dated lake sediment section from Shikotan Island (Southern Kurils) showed that from ca 8.0 to 5.8 cal ka BP a warm...     

Investigating the propagation mechanism of unmodelled systematic errors on coordinate time series estimated using least squares

The propagation of unmodelled systematic errors into coordinate time series computed using least squares is investigated, to improve the understanding of unexplained signals and apparent noise in geodetic (especially GPS) coordinate time series. Such coordinate time series are invariably based on a functional model linearised using only zero and first-order terms of a (Taylor) series expansion about the approximate coordinates of the unknown point. The effect of such truncation errors is investigated through the derivation of a generalised systematic error model for the simple case of range observations from a single known reference point to a point which is assumed to be at rest by the least squares model but is in fact in motion. The systematic error function for a one pseudo-satellite two-dimensional case, designed to be as simple but as analogous to GPS positioning as possible, is quantified. It is shown that the combination of a moving reference point and unmodelled periodic displacement at the unknown point of interest, due to ocean tide loading, for example, results in an output coordinate time series containing many periodic terms when only zero and first-order expansion terms are used in the linearisation of the functional model. The amplitude, phase and period of these terms is dependent on the input amplitude, the locations of the unknown point and reference point, and the period of the reference point's motion. The dominant output signals that arise due to truncation errors match those found in coordinate time series obtained from both simulated data and real three-dimensional GPS data.     

Nature and age of metamorphic rocks from the basement of the West Siberian megabasin (according to U-Pb isotopic dates)

The SHRIMP-II zircon U-Pb dates for metamorphic rocks from the West Siberian basement are determined for the first time. It is established that the major protolith of the metamorphic strata from the Shaimsk-Kuznetsovsk meganticlinorium is composed of sedimentary Late- and Middle-Devonian rocks (395–398 Ma). It is likely that the greywackes, whose strata were mainly formed under erosion of ophiolitic rocks, served as a substrate for the metamorphic rocks. The metamorphic transformations of the rocks occurred under conditions of greenschist and occasionally lower amphibolite facies of metamorphism during the Late Carboniferous-Early Permian period.